053
FXUS61 KCLE 171739
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1239 PM EST MON FEB 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT, HOLDING THE AREA INTO MIDWEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PASSES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
930 AM UPDATE...
MINOR POP CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. SPREAD SOME SLIGHT POPS OF
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LAKE SHORE COUNTIES AND FROM AREAS I-77
EASTWARD. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF THROUGHOUT THE DAY,
THOUGH MAY LINGER IN FAR NE OH AND NW PA. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER AN INCH, WITH SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN AREAS WITH PROLONGED SNOWFALL.
625 AM UPDATE...
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES ARE GONE, ALTHOUGH SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. SOME MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS, BUT
OVERALL, NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION IS UNDERGOING A GRADUAL EROSION OF
THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND A SHIFTING OF THE STREAMLINES FROM A
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION TO MORE WESTERLY. DESPITE CONTINUED COLD AIR
ADVECTION, COVERAGE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO OUR
CWA SHOULD DECREASE ACCORDINGLY INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS. KEEPING THE
DECREASE IN POPS VERY SLOW FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS WELL, GIVEN
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE AND THE LITTLE FORCING NEEDED TO PRODUCE
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. A SLIGHT REINVIGORATION OF THE POPS EXPECTED
AFTER 18Z AROUND THE NW PA AREA IN A BRIEFLY FAVORABLE FETCH IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW OFF OF SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. AT THIS POINT, AN INCH
OR LESS ADDITIONAL SNOW EXPECTED FOR THE NON LAKE EFFECT AREAS,
WHILE 1-3 ADDITIONAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN FAR NE OH/NW PA.
FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY, NOT MUCH RECOVERY FROM THE EARLY MORNING
LOWS THAT WILL END UP IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS. PRETTY MUCH ALL
LOCATIONS SHOULD STAY UNDER 20F THIS AFTERNOON, OR VERY CLOSE TO IT.
WINDS EASE TONIGHT, WITH TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT UNDER SOME
CLEARING. WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE UNDER IMPROVING
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH SNOW PACK, AND LOWS LARGELY IN
THE 0-5F RANGE AND WIND CHILLS MINUS 5 TO MINUS 10. TUESDAY IS
LIKELY THE COLDEST DAY OF THE FORECAST WITH LOW TO MID TEENS FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ARCTIC AIR REMAINS OVERHEAD WHICH WILL KEEP MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO GLIDE EAST TOWARDS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AT THE SURFACE, LOW
PRESSURE WILL GLIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
SNOW SHOWERS TO ENTER THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL TRANSITION INTO LAKE EFFECT SNOW DURING THE DAY THURSDAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING THURSDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE CENTRAL US.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER NIGHT
OF SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS EXPECTED. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
RISE INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS THEY SETTLE
AROUND 10-15 DEGREES F.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS EXPANSIVE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THOUGH THE LONG TERM AS THE HIGH BUILDS EAST
WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID 20S RISING TO THE MID 30S BY
SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
STARTING TO SEE AN MVFR CEILING DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION IMPACTING ALL BUT FDY AT THIS POINT. THERE ARE A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW DROPPING VIS BELOW
UNRESTRICTED BUT STILL VFR. ERI IS THE ONLY TERMINAL EXPECTED TO
GO DOWN TO IFR VIS DURING THE TAF PERIOD DUE TO A LAKE EFFECT
BAND SITUATED OVER FAR NE OH AND NW PA. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR BY 06Z TUESDAY FOR ERI. CLE AND TOL SHOULD SEE
A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
BEFORE DISSIPATING BY 08Z TUESDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY DROPPING DOWN THE BELOW 12KTS
AFTER 01-06Z TUESDAY. ERI IS THE EXCEPTION AND WILL STILL BE
GUSTING TO 20KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK
NON-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION AND LAKE
EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO
END THE WEEK AND FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
WESTERLY WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL PERSIST ACROSS LAKE ERIE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY TO 20-25 KNOTS THIS
EVENING. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT WHICH WILL FURTHER DIMINISH WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY BY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE LAKE FROM THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE AND WESTERLY FLOW
RETURN BY FRIDAY.
HAVE ISSUED A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ICE FLOES ON LAKE ERIE
GIVEN THE ELEVATED WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH TODAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...23/26
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...23
MARINE...13
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