278
FXUS61 KCLE 172039
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
339 PM EST MON FEB 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THE
MIDWEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MID
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE IS INFLUENCING MUCH OF NORTHERN OHIO WITH
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING FAIRLY CONSISTENT ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THERE HAS BEEN
A PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT BAND WITH THE MEAN FLOW BEING WESTERLY
OR JUST NORTH OF WESTERLY IMPACTING MAINLY NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS SNOW BAND HAS OVERACHIEVED AT TIMES AS WE'VE
SEEN VISIBILITY DROPS BELOW HALF A MILE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF TIME. SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE INCREASED SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 3-5 INCHES FOR ERIE CO.,
PA. SNOWFALL ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SNOWBELT IS EXPECTED TO BE
MINIMAL WITH TOTALS LESS THAN HALF AN INCH. DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR
WILL MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT CUTTING OFF THE MOISTURE
SUPPLY FOR THE LAKE EFFECT AND SNOWFALL SHOULD TAPER OFF INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. THE REST OF TUESDAY WILL BE
DRY FOR ALL THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS
UNDERNEATH THE SURFACE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH RADIATIONAL
COOLING. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE QUICKER WEST OF I-77, THOUGH TO THE
EAST THERE WILL STILL BE SOME GUSTIER WINDS UP TO 20 MPH THAT
WILL BRING WIND CHILLS VALUES DOWN WELL BELOW ZERO. MOSTLY
EVERYONE WILL HAVE WIND CHILLS DOWN -5 TO -10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO
TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA DROPPING TO -15 TO -20. A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THOSE COUNTIES IN
PENNSYLVANIA. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE COLD IN THE LOW TO
MID TEENS WITH WIND CHILLS DOWN AROUND ZERO. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING ANOTHER NIGHT OF SINGLE DEGREE TEMPERATURES AND BELOW
ZERO WIND CHILLS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY,
WITH THIS RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
EVEN SO, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, SO COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WITH UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH (SO WON'T EVEN BENEFIT FROM SOME
SUNSHINE ON WEDNESDAY. LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS. WHILE OVERALL QPF/SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT (AROUND 0.5 TO 1 INCH OF SNOW AREAWIDE),
HAVE TRENDED POPS UPWARD TO 50-70% DUE TO INCREASING CONFIDENCE. LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY, WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. THIS MAY ADD ADDITIONAL SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OF AN INCH OR LESS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
COULD LINGER IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS BUILDS IN
ON FRIDAY, BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SATURDAY
AND THEN OFF THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY. FRIDAY TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON
THE CHILLY SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES,
THOUGH WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES REBOUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH WHAT WOULD LIKELY FALL
IN THE FORM OF SNOW, THOUGH NATURALLY THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
STARTING TO SEE AN MVFR CEILING DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION IMPACTING ALL BUT FDY AT THIS POINT. THERE ARE A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW DROPPING VIS BELOW
UNRESTRICTED BUT STILL VFR. ERI IS THE ONLY TERMINAL EXPECTED TO
GO DOWN TO IFR VIS DURING THE TAF PERIOD DUE TO A LAKE EFFECT
BAND SITUATED OVER FAR NE OH AND NW PA. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR BY 06Z TUESDAY FOR ERI. CLE AND TOL SHOULD SEE
A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
BEFORE DISSIPATING BY 08Z TUESDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY DROPPING DOWN THE BELOW 12KTS
AFTER 01-06Z TUESDAY. ERI IS THE EXCEPTION AND WILL STILL BE
GUSTING TO 20KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK
NON-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION AND LAKE
EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO
END THE WEEK AND FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
NEARSHORE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT
RANGE, THOUGH FORECAST DATA SHOWS THAT WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER
QUICKLY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
BECAUSE OF THIS, HAVE OPTED TO NOT RENEW THE MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR ICE FLOES. SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE DIMINISHING ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS DEVELOP ON THURSDAY FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF TROUGH BEFORE WEAKENING ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS DEVELOP SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ001-002.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...23
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...SAUNDERS
LONG TERM...SAUNDERS
AVIATION...23
MARINE...SAUNDERS
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