337
FXUS61 KCLE 191832
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
132 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY WEAKENS. A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW ENTERS FROM THE
WEST TONIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THERE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AREAWIDE WITH LOCATIONS OUTSIDE THE
TRADITIONAL SNOWBELT SEEING BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1 INCH. SNOW WILL
TRANSITION INTO LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
EXITS TO THE EAST AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY.
EXPECTING FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NEAR TERM AND START OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD WITH
OVERALL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES ACROSS THE
SNOWBELT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL SETTLE IN THE UPPER TEENS
TO LOWER 20S. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
SOME LINGERING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM THE SURFACE/LOW LEVEL
FETCH OFF OF LAKE HURON INTO NORTHEAST OHIO/NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA
THAT SHOULD END JUST AFTER 18Z FRIDAY. WITH A COASTAL LOW NOW OUT OF
THE PICTURE, HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY IN THE SHORT TERM. NOT GETTING INTO ANY SORT OF SIGNIFICANT
WARM AIR ADVECTION, BUT TEMPERATURE INCREASES WILL OCCUR VIA AIRMASS
MODIFICATION WITH SOME PEAKS OF SUN COMING BACK INTO THE FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE PATTERNS
ARE GOING TO BECOME LESS ACTIVE GOING FORWARD. BEYOND THE INITIAL
PRECIPITATION, THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS DRY, AND SATURDAY
IS LIKELY THE LAST DAY OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST WHERE AREA WIDE HIGH
TEMPERATURES REMAIN JUST BELOW FREEZING AS WE CONTINUE TO VERY
SLOWLY WARM UP.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE GENERAL THEME OF THE LONG TERM IS PUSHING TOWARDS NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES OVER THE CWA
WANE WITH THE SYSTEM DRIFTING SOUTHWARD WHILE DECAYING. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS FOR THE
LONG TERM, WHILE KEEPING THE EASTERN THIRD IN A TROUGHING PATTERN.
500MB TROUGH AXIS WITH VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY, AND WILL LIKELY ONLY STUNT THE
TEMPERATURE INCREASES SLIGHTLY. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM FOLLOWS
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BUT THIS SYSTEM IS TAPPING INTO
PACIFIC AIR AND NOT ARCTIC AIR. AS A RESULT, AS OF THIS ISSUANCE,
PROBABLY MORE OF A RAIN SYSTEM OR RAIN/SNOW MIX, AND TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL, WITH AREA TEMPERATURES CENTERED AROUND 40F
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
BKN CLOUD FIELD WITH CEILINGS AROUND 2500-3500 HAVE DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH SHOULD IMPROVE TO LARGELY VFR THIS
EVENING. THIS ALL CHANGES WHEN A SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING
AREAWIDE LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH
VISIBILITES AVERAGING AROUND 2 SM WITH THE SNOW AND CEILINGS
AROUND 1000-1500 FT. TOTAL SYSTEM SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
1 TO 2 INCHES BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW BECOME MORE
SCATTERED AND SHOWERY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED IFR
CONDITIONS AND ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. LAKE
EFFECT WILL ALSO DEVELOP FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA, WHICH IS WHERE THERE IS BETTER POTENTIAL
FOR MORE PERSISTENT IFR-LEVEL SNOW.
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 7 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE INCREASING TO 8-12 KNOTS BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
OUTLOOK
NON-VFR CONDITIONS WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
MARINE
WITH THE STRONGER WINDS OUT OF THE WESTERLY DIRECTION THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS, SOME WATER HAS OPENED UP OVER THE FAR WESTERN BASIN
OF LAKE ERIE AND ALSO EAST OF THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER, THE LAKE REMAINS
MAINLY ICE COVERED OTHERWISE.
NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10KTS THROUGH TONIGHT INCREASE TO 10-20KTS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WINDS THEN BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY 10-20KTS
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...13
NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...SAUNDERS
MARINE...26
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