994
FXUS61 KCLE 200239
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
939 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AN UPTICK IN SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN NOTED OFF LAKE ERIE ACROSS
THE CLEVELAND METRO AREA THIS EVENING. RAISED POPS FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE
SHALLOW MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE. GIVEN THIS EARLY ROUND OF
SNOW AND A COUPLE REPORTS OF MINOR ACCUMULATIONS THIS EVENING
HAVE RAISED THE SNOWFALL FORECAST FOR THE CLEVELAND AREA BY
ANOTHER HALF INCH OR SO FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
SYSTEM SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL ARRIVE FROM WEST TO EAST GENERALLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 5
AM, WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING TOWARDS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA
WHERE AN UPTICK IN SNOW SHOWERS MAY GET UNDERWAY LATE THIS
EVENING. EXPANDED THE MENTION OF FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST BUT
NOT EXPECTING ACCUMULATING SNOW UNTIL AFTER AT LEAST 11 PM. WITH
AN EARLY LOOK AT SOME OF THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE, FORECAST
SNOWFALL LOOKS ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS STREAMING DOWNWIND
OF THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON APPROXIMATELY ALONG
AND NORTH OF US-30. THERE HAVE EVEN BEEN A FEW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA, JUST
ENOUGH FOR A QUICK ISOLATED TENTH OF SNOW IN A FEW SPOTS.
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER IOWA WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS ILLINOIS/INDIANA TONIGHT AND INTO OHIO BY THURSDAY
MORNING. AREAWIDE LIGHT SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM WITH
GENERALLY 1-2" EXPECTED AREAWIDE. SNOW RATES GENERALLY EXPECTED
TO BE VERY LOW, ON THE ORDER OF AROUND 0.25"/HR FOR A FEW HOURS.
EVEN SO, THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED,
ESPECIALLY DUE TO COLDER TEMPERATURES MAKING IT MORE DIFFICULT
TO TREAT/REMOVE SNOW FROM ROADWAYS.
THIS WILL TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT WITH MORE
SHOWERY ACTIVITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH LAKE ERIE IS
MOSTLY ICED OVER (GLERL SHOWS ~95% AS OF FEBRUARY 18TH), THERE
IS ENOUGH OPEN WATER TO CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND
LAKE-INDUCED INSTABILITY. THIS IS ESPECIALLY APPARENT GIVEN THE
FLURRIES WE HAVE BEEN SEEING TODAY. AS LAKE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
CONTRIBUTES, THERE COULD ACTUALLY BE BE UPTICK IN SNOW
INTENSITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY FOR THE SNOWBELT
REGION, AND EVEN FOR INLAND AREAS SOUTH OF US-30 WHERE LAKE
MICHIGAN STREAMERS AND HIGHER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD LEAD
TO A FEW BETTER SNOW SHOWERS. FOR THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT IN
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA, ADDITIONAL SNOW OF
2-4" IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH
SCATTERED ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 0.5-1" ELSEWHERE. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ERIE COUNTY PA
WHERE STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND 3-5 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED (WITH A FEW SPOTS GETTING 6 OR 7 DEPENDING ON WHERE
SNOW BANDS). CONFIDENCE WAS HIGHEST THERE PRIMARILY DUE TO
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE/SNOW FLOWING OFF OF LAKE HURON. SNOWFALL
RATES COULD BRIEFLY HIT 1" PER HOUR AT TIMES THERE. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WERE CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA ELSEWHERE,
INCLUDING CRAWFORD PA, ASHTABULA, AND GEAUGA. WE WILL EVALUATE
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT TO SEE IF THOSE
COUNTIES NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE ADVISORY.
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT,
SO SHOULD SNOW SHOWERS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW GRADUALLY DIMINISH
(ALTHOUGH PROBABLY STILL LINGERING IN THE SNOWBELT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING).
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. LINGERING
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT MAY RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FRIDAY MORNING, BUT OTHERWISE,
ANTICIPATING A DRY FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN
THE 20S ON FRIDAY ONLY INCREASING INTO THE LOW 30S BY SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY START TO RETURN TO NORMAL FOR THE LONG
TERM PERIOD, WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THE
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN APPEARS TO FAVOR A RIDGING PATTERN ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH A WAVY, TROUGHING REGIME ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTH OF HUDSON BAY WILL LIKELY SERVE AS A
BLOCKING MECHANISM, LIMITING ANY COLDER ARCTIC AIR FROM ARRIVING
INTO THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THERE WILL BE
MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE WAVY UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING
PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF THESE
APPEARS TO BE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHERE SCATTERED TO PERHAPS
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MVFR CLOUD DECK IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WHERE FLURRIES HAVE DEVELOPED THIS EVENING. THE
MOISTURE DEPTH IS SHALLOW SO NOT EXPECTING ACCUMULATION UNTIL
LATER TONIGHT BUT FLURRIES MAY CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH 03Z.
LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION AFTER 04Z.
CEILINGS WILL BE VFR AT TIMES THIS EVENING WITH ALL SITES
LOWERING TO MVFR AS SNOW ARRIVES. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 04Z-10Z WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING
TOWARDS ERI WHERE SNOW MAY FILL IN EARLIER BY 03Z. VISIBILITIES
IN SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE 1-2 MILES BUT MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO 3/4
MILE. THE SNOW DOES LOOK TO PEAK AT CLEVELAND DURING THE EARLY
MORNING BETWEEN 10-14Z WITH 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
WHILE THE WIDESPREAD SNOW STARTS TO PULL AWAY BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
SNOWBELT WITH LINGERING IMPACTS AT CLE, ERI, AND POSSIBLY YNG.
OTHER TERMINALS SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENTS IN VISIBILITY DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY.
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL BACK TO WESTERLY
FOR A PERIOD OF TIME OVERNIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS RESUME ON
THURSDAY AND SOME SITES WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK
NON-VFR CONDITIONS WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
MARINE
MUCH OF LAKE ERIE REMAINS ICE COVERED AND THUS THE ISSUANCE OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUES TO BE SUSPENDED. OTHERWISE, NO HEADLINES
ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS WIND
SPEEDS REMAIN GENERALLY 20 KNOTS OR LESS. THERE WILL BE TWO PERIODS
WHERE SHIFTS IN THE ICE ARE MOST LIKELY - THE FIRST BEING BEHIND A
COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15
TO 20 KNOTS. THE SECOND PERIOD WILL BE SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR PAZ001-002.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SAUNDERS
NEAR TERM...10/SAUNDERS
SHORT TERM...KAHN
LONG TERM...KAHN
AVIATION...10/SAUNDERS
MARINE...KAHN
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