806  
FXUS61 KCLE 200931  
AFDCLE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH  
431 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.  
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND PERSISTS THROUGH  
THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST ACROSS  
THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS  
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. AREA WEBCAMS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW  
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL, PARTICULARLY ON UNTREATED SURFACES AND  
BRIDGES THIS MORNING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELT  
REMAIN IN THE 1-2" RANGE WITH LIKELY IMPACTS TO THE MORNING COMMUTE  
TODAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL EXIT TO THE EAST BY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH  
WILL TRANSITION WIDESPREAD SNOW INTO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS  
PRIMARILY IMPACTING NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. SOME  
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELT THROUGH THIS  
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW STEMMING FROM LAKE  
MICHIGAN MAY CREEP INTO WESTERN ZONES.  
 
AS FOR THE SNOWBELT, EXPECT LAKE ENHANCED/EFFECT SNOW TO CONTINUE  
THROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS NORTHWESTERLY MEAN LAYER FLOW AND  
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WINTER  
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ERIE COUNTY PA REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH MOST  
OF THE COUNTY RECEIVING BETWEEN 3 AND 5 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH  
FRIDAY MORNING, WITH SOME INLAND LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY RECEIVING  
CLOSER TO 6-7 INCHES OF SNOW. FOR NOW, HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS  
REMAINED CONFINED TO ERIE COUNTY WITH THE REST OF THE SNOWBELT  
RECEIVING CLOSER TO 2-4 INCHES.  
 
BY FRIDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL INTRODUCE  
DRIER AIR OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT  
SNOW SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING  
THOUGH EXPECT FOR CLOUD COVER TO LINGER THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.  
 
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY RISE INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S WITH  
OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS. SLIGHTLY WARMER BY FRIDAY  
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR MOST, LOW 20S  
ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
THE OVERALL WEATHER AND FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND IS LOOKING  
RELATIVELY NICE AND QUIET FOR THE END OF FEBRUARY STANDARDS. THE  
WEATHER PATTERN WILL SHIFT TO A LESS ACTIVE TIME PERIOD THANKS TO A  
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING A ROUND FAIR WEATHER  
ACROSS OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND. THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE  
SYSTEM WILL BE RIGHT OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY OR NEAR THE MIDDLE  
APPALACHIAN REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WE WILL  
STILL HAVE SOME RESIDUAL COLD TEMPERATURES TO DEAL WITH FRIDAY NIGHT  
INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID  
TEENS. THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL VERY SLOWLY START  
MOVING EAST SATURDAY TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION. BUT WE  
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN FIRMLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS QUIET  
WEATHER MAKER FOR MOST OF THIS WEEKEND, THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN ON SATURDAY OR  
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. WINDS AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RETURN  
BACK FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF  
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. OUR TEMPERATURES WILL START THE SLOW CLIMB  
UPWARDS FROM THE RECENT FRIGID COLD TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH  
HIGHS TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  
WE WILL FINALLY CRAWL OUT THE RECENT DEEP FREEZE TO TEMPERATURES  
ABOVE FREEZING BY SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT, THERE WILL BE  
WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM RIDING THROUGH THE WEST-NORTHWEST UPPER  
LEVEL AND TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE WILL BE  
AN INCREASE OF CLOUDINESS MOVING IN BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WE  
WILL ALSO BRING BACK SLIGHT POPS TO THE FORECAST LATER SUNDAY NIGHT  
FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS WE LOOK FURTHER AHEAD INTO OUR FORECAST DURING THE EARLY AND  
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WE SEE A RETURN OF SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE  
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE INFLUENCE AND STEERED BY A COUPLE  
STORM SYSTEMS IN AN ACTIVE AND FAST PACED WESTERLIES TO  
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THERE ARE THE POTENTIAL OF TWO  
SEPARATE WEATHER SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING A QUICK ROUND OF LIGHT  
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN AND OR WET SNOW. THE FIRST ONE  
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND MAY BE THE  
WEAKER OR LESS IMPACTFUL AS IT REGARDS THE COVERAGE OF LIGHT PRECIP.  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER IN THE 30S AND 40S FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE  
OF NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY FAVOR MORE RAIN THAN SNOW CHANCES. THE SYSTEM  
LATER IN THE WEEK COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER IN DYNAMICS AS WELL AS  
HAVE MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THAT STORM SYSTEM MAY ALSO BRING  
BACK SOME COLDER AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF IT BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK  
WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SERING THE NEXT POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL WINTRY  
WEATHER.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY START TO RETURN TO NORMAL FOR THE LONG  
TERM PERIOD, WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THE  
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN APPEARS TO FAVOR A RIDGING PATTERN ACROSS THE  
WESTERN CONUS WITH A WAVY, TROUGHING REGIME ACROSS THE EASTERN  
CONUS. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTH OF HUDSON BAY WILL LIKELY SERVE AS A  
BLOCKING MECHANISM, LIMITING ANY COLDER ARCTIC AIR FROM ARRIVING  
INTO THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THERE WILL BE  
MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE WAVY UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING  
PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF THESE  
APPEARS TO BE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHERE SCATTERED TO PERHAPS  
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE  
LOWER GREAT LAKES.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
MVFR ACROSS TERMINALS AS WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS  
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.  
VISIBILITIES IN SNOW SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY DIP TO THE 1-2 SM  
RANGE WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 1500-2500 FEET. WIDESPREAD SNOW  
EXITS WESTERN TERMINALS LATE THURSDAY MORNING AS SNOW  
TRANSITIONS INTO LAKE EFFECT SNOW. AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW PERSISTS  
ACROSS TERMINALS IN NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA,  
THERE MAY BE A WINDOW OF IFR CIGS/VIS AT CLE/CAK/YNG THROUGH  
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF  
LIFR CONDITIONS AT ERI THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN SNOWFALL RATES  
PEAK TO 1-2"/HR. LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY  
DIMINISH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER  
AIR ENTER THE REGION.  
 
NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO  
8-12 KNOTS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20-22  
KNOTS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL EASE BELOW 10 KNOTS NEAR THE END OF  
THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST.  
   
OUTLOOK
 
NON-VFR CONDITIONS WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY  
CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA  
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
MUCH OF LAKE ERIE REMAINS ICE COVERED AND THUS THE ISSUANCE OF SMALL  
CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUES TO BE SUSPENDED. OTHERWISE, NO HEADLINES  
ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS WIND  
SPEEDS REMAIN GENERALLY 20 KNOTS OR LESS. THERE WILL BE TWO PERIODS  
WHERE THE ICE FIELD ON LAKE ERIE MAY BREAK UP AND SHIFT AROUND  
CAUSING ICE FLOES. THE FIRST TIME PERIOD FOR THE ICE TO MOVE AROUND  
WILL BE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND AN UPTICK OF  
WESTER TO NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE LAKE. THE SECOND  
TIME PERIOD AND POSSIBLY HAVING A LITTLE MORE IMPACT TO MOVING THE  
ICE AROUND ON THE LAKE WILL BE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH GUSTY  
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS. THEY WINDS GUSTS MAY UP UP TO 35  
KNOTS THIS WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OH...NONE.  
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ001-002.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...13  
NEAR TERM...13  
SHORT TERM...GRIFFIN  
LONG TERM...GRIFFIN  
AVIATION...13  
MARINE...GRIFFIN  
 
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