711
FXUS61 KCLE 201458
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
958 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND PERSISTS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
BUMPED UP POPS AND SNOW TOTALS IN THE CLEVELAND METRO WITH THE
HEAVIER BAND MOVING THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. DID SLIGHTLY
NUDGE UP TOTALS EVERYWHERE ELSE GIVEN RADAR RETURNS REMAINING
ACROSS THE REGION.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. AREA WEBCAMS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL, PARTICULARLY ON UNTREATED SURFACES AND
BRIDGES THIS MORNING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELT
REMAIN IN THE 1-2" RANGE WITH LIKELY IMPACTS TO THE MORNING COMMUTE
TODAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL EXIT TO THE EAST BY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL TRANSITION WIDESPREAD SNOW INTO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
PRIMARILY IMPACTING NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELT THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW STEMMING FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN MAY CREEP INTO WESTERN ZONES.
AS FOR THE SNOWBELT, EXPECT LAKE ENHANCED/EFFECT SNOW TO CONTINUE
THROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS NORTHWESTERLY MEAN LAYER FLOW AND
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ERIE COUNTY PA REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH MOST
OF THE COUNTY RECEIVING BETWEEN 3 AND 5 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING, WITH SOME INLAND LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY RECEIVING
CLOSER TO 6-7 INCHES OF SNOW. FOR NOW, HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
REMAINED CONFINED TO ERIE COUNTY WITH THE REST OF THE SNOWBELT
RECEIVING CLOSER TO 2-4 INCHES.
BY FRIDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL INTRODUCE
DRIER AIR OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
THOUGH EXPECT FOR CLOUD COVER TO LINGER THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY RISE INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS. SLIGHTLY WARMER BY FRIDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR MOST, LOW 20S
ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
THE OVERALL WEATHER AND FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND IS LOOKING
RELATIVELY NICE AND QUIET FOR THE END OF FEBRUARY STANDARDS. THE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL SHIFT TO A LESS ACTIVE TIME PERIOD THANKS TO A
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING A ROUND FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND. THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BE RIGHT OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY OR NEAR THE MIDDLE
APPALACHIAN REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WE WILL
STILL HAVE SOME RESIDUAL COLD TEMPERATURES TO DEAL WITH FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
TEENS. THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL VERY SLOWLY START
MOVING EAST SATURDAY TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION. BUT WE
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN FIRMLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS QUIET
WEATHER MAKER FOR MOST OF THIS WEEKEND, THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN ON SATURDAY OR
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. WINDS AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RETURN
BACK FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. OUR TEMPERATURES WILL START THE SLOW CLIMB
UPWARDS FROM THE RECENT FRIGID COLD TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH
HIGHS TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
WE WILL FINALLY CRAWL OUT THE RECENT DEEP FREEZE TO TEMPERATURES
ABOVE FREEZING BY SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT, THERE WILL BE
WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM RIDING THROUGH THE WEST-NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL AND TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE WILL BE
AN INCREASE OF CLOUDINESS MOVING IN BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WE
WILL ALSO BRING BACK SLIGHT POPS TO THE FORECAST LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS WE LOOK FURTHER AHEAD INTO OUR FORECAST DURING THE EARLY AND
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WE SEE A RETURN OF SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE INFLUENCE AND STEERED BY A COUPLE
STORM SYSTEMS IN AN ACTIVE AND FAST PACED WESTERLIES TO
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THERE ARE THE POTENTIAL OF TWO
SEPARATE WEATHER SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING A QUICK ROUND OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN AND OR WET SNOW. THE FIRST ONE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND MAY BE THE
WEAKER OR LESS IMPACTFUL AS IT REGARDS THE COVERAGE OF LIGHT PRECIP.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER IN THE 30S AND 40S FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY FAVOR MORE RAIN THAN SNOW CHANCES. THE SYSTEM
LATER IN THE WEEK COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER IN DYNAMICS AS WELL AS
HAVE MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THAT STORM SYSTEM MAY ALSO BRING
BACK SOME COLDER AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF IT BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK
WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SERING THE NEXT POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL WINTRY
WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY START TO RETURN TO NORMAL FOR THE LONG
TERM PERIOD, WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THE
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN APPEARS TO FAVOR A RIDGING PATTERN ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH A WAVY, TROUGHING REGIME ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTH OF HUDSON BAY WILL LIKELY SERVE AS A
BLOCKING MECHANISM, LIMITING ANY COLDER ARCTIC AIR FROM ARRIVING
INTO THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THERE WILL BE
MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE WAVY UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING
PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF THESE
APPEARS TO BE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHERE SCATTERED TO PERHAPS
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CAN BE SEEN ACROSS TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING AS WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. AS THE PARENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW EXITS TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, ANTICIPATE
FOR COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SNOW SHOWERS TO DIMINISH FOR
TERMINALS WEST OF I-71. ANTICIPATE FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO HANG
AROUND THROUGH THE TAF WINDOW AS DRY AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE SLOW TO SCATTER OUT OVERCAST LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER ON
FRIDAY.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE ENHANCED/EFFECT SNOW TO PERSIST AT
TERMINALS ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA
THROUGH TONIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT TERMINALS ACROSS THE
SNOWBELT THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. HEAVIEST SNOW LOOKS TO OCCUR AT KERI THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE MOST
LIKELY TO OCCUR IN SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2"/HR.
NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO
8-12 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20-22 KNOTS.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL EASE BELOW 10 KNOTS NEAR THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST.
OUTLOOK
NON-VFR CONDITIONS WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
MARINE
MUCH OF LAKE ERIE REMAINS ICE COVERED AND THUS THE ISSUANCE OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUES TO BE SUSPENDED. OTHERWISE, NO HEADLINES
ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS WIND
SPEEDS REMAIN GENERALLY 20 KNOTS OR LESS. THERE WILL BE TWO PERIODS
WHERE THE ICE FIELD ON LAKE ERIE MAY BREAK UP AND SHIFT AROUND
CAUSING ICE FLOES. THE FIRST TIME PERIOD FOR THE ICE TO MOVE AROUND
WILL BE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND AN UPTICK OF
WESTER TO NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE LAKE. THE SECOND
TIME PERIOD AND POSSIBLY HAVING A LITTLE MORE IMPACT TO MOVING THE
ICE AROUND ON THE LAKE WILL BE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS. THEY WINDS GUSTS MAY UP UP TO 35
KNOTS THIS WEEKEND.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ001-002.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...13
NEAR TERM...13/SEFCOVIC
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...13
MARINE...
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