610
FXUS61 KCLE 210133
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
833 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
IT APPEARS ONE MORE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PIVOTING SOUTH ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. DEEPER MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ERIE THIS
EVENING AND ENHANCING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. IN ADDITION, MODELS
INDICATE AN UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL OMEGA TOWARDS NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA WITH FLOW AND MOISTURE OFF LAKE HURON DIRECTED
TOWARDS ERIE COUNTY. WE HAVE RECEIVED A COUPLE REPORTS OF SNOW
AROUND 6 INCHES ALREADY THIS EVENING AND ADDITIONAL SNOW OF 2 TO
5 INCHES LOOKS LIKELY, WITH THE BULK OF IT EXPECTED WHILE THE
DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS THROUGH 2 AM. SNOW RATIOS ARE HIGH NEAR
20:1 SO THE CHARACTER OF THE SNOW IS FLUFFY BUT ALSO SLICK GIVEN
THE COLD CONDITIONS. WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED TO A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WARNING AND EXTENDED THE HEADLINES UNTIL 10 AM. THAT MAY BE
A TOUCH TOO LONG DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
ARRIVES BUT COULD POTENTIALLY SEE LIGHT SNOW THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW. WE HAVE ALSO SEEN SOME
ENHANCEMENT OCCURRING IN OHIO AND HAVE SLIGHTLY RAISED BOTH
POPS AND ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...INSTABILITY-DRIVEN, LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA THIS EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE WILL
LARGELY NOT HAVE TOO MUCH ACCUMULATION BUT THERE WILL BE QUICKLY
CHANGING VISIBILITY WITHIN THE SNOW SHOWERS ALLOWING FOR SOME
ISOLATED TRAVEL IMPACTS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE TONIGHT PERIOD. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE MOST
PERSISTENT IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WHERE SOME BANDING HAS
OCCURRED OVER EASTERN LAKE ERIE. WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY, AS IS FOR NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO END THE SNOW WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS WITH SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT EXITS SLOWLY E'WARD FROM OUR
REGION AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY STABILIZING SUBSIDENCE. NET WAA ALONG
THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE. LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20'S TO LOWER 30'S ON
SATURDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20'S AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY. DURING LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MAINLY THE MID TO UPPER 30'S.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH-
CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH OVERSPREADS OUR CWA FROM THE NORTH AND
WEST. MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALOFT, AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AXIS, MAY GENERATE SCATTERED AND LIGHT SNOW, ESPECIALLY OVER AND
NEAR LAKE ERIE. AT THIS TIME, LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 20'S TO
LOWER 30'S AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY AS NET LOW-LEVEL WAA CONTINUES.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
CYCLONIC W'ERLY TO NW'ERLY FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES AFFECT OUR REGION ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
(E.G. THE AXIS OF THE ABOVE-MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO ADVANCE E'WARD ACROSS OUR REGION ON MONDAY). DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS OF WEDNESDAY MORNING, A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD
FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND VICINITY. AT THE SURFACE, A TROUGH
LINGERS OVER THE LAKE ERIE REGION AND UPPER OH VALLEY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS E'WARD THROUGH OUR CWA ON TUESDAY. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT, THE SURFACE PORTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS FROM
THE WEST THROUGH DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING. NET LOW-LEVEL WAA AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING THE
UPPER 30'S TO MID 40'S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
REACH THE LOWER TO MID 30'S AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY. COLDER
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20'S TO LOWER 30'S ARE EXPECTED AROUND
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY, DUE IN PART TO NET AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL CAA BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT.
SCATTERED PRECIP IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING REASONS: MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALOFT, AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXES; LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/ASSOCIATED MOIST ASCENT
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN, PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS WET SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW
MIX MONDAY MORNING, MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, AND
AGAIN TUESDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE MINOR
AND PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE COLDER HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE OH AND NW
PA.
THE NARROW SHORTWAVE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD CREST
E'WARD ACROSS OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. CURRENT ODDS FAVOR FAIR WEATHER
AS STABILIZING SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANIES THE RIDGE. DEVELOPING NET WAA
ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTRIBUTE TO LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 30'S TO UPPER
40'S.
A LONGWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SHOULD OVERSPREAD OUR REGION FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES, MID MS VALLEY, AND VICINITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. MID/UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE, TROPOSPHERIC ASCENT,
AND ASSOCIATED MSLP FALLS AHEAD OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS MAY
ALLOW THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW TO WOBBLE ENE'WARD FROM NEAR THE MID
MS VALLEY TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. ACCORDINGLY, THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD
OVERSPREAD OUR REGION GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. PERIODS OF
RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM'S WARM CONVEYOR BELT UNDERGOES MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND
OUR REGION REMAINS IN THE COLD SECTOR. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REACH
THE UPPER 20'S TO LOWER 30'S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BE FOLLOWED BY
DAYTIME HIGHS IN MAINLY THE 35F TO 40F RANGE ON THURSDAY.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING. CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY MVFR
WITH 3-5 MILE VISIBILITIES IN OHIO AND MORE FREQUENT IFR
VISIBILITIES IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. WITH THAT SAID,
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER VISIBILITIES TO IFR IN
NORTHEAST OHIO TOO, ESPECIALLY AT YNG AND CAK. TIMING OF LOW IFR
CONDITIONS IN MODERATE SNOW WILL BE DIFFICULT OVERNIGHT AND
DEPEND ON PLACEMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS. CONTINUED SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MORE LIKELY THROUGH 05Z AS SOME MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIFT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
BEYOND THAT TIME, LIFT IS EXPECTED TO WANE WITH CONDITIONS
DRYING OUT FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. HAVE NOTED CLEAR SKIES
UPSTREAM IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WHICH MAY SNEAK INTO TOLEDO AND
WITH A LOWER CHANCE INTO FINDLAY. WHILE THE CLEARING IS EVEN
CLOSE TO CLE, EXPECTING ENOUGH MOISTURE OFF LAKE ERIE TO
MAINTAIN CLOUDS THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST
TERMINALS ASIDE FROM LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AT ERI.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT. A FEW SOUTHERN SITES
ARE SEEING SOME GUSTS EARLY BUT THOSE ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE
THROUGH 03Z. WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT 10 KNOTS OR
LESS ON FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
MARINE
W'ERLY TO NW'ERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A TROUGH LINGERS OVER LAKE ERIE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
THEN A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. W'ERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS BACK TO SW'ERLY
ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS E'WARD ACROSS THE LAKE ERIE
REGION. SW'ERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 25 KNOTS PERSIST ON SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AS LAKE ERIE BECOMES LOCATED ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK
OF THE RIDGE. A TROUGH OVERSPREADS LAKE ERIE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
THIS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND A COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP
E'WARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY. ACCORDINGLY, SW'ERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. ON TUESDAY, THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE IS FORECAST TO CAUSE
SW'ERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS TO VEER TO W'ERLY.
LAKE ERIE IS PRIMARILY ICE-COVERED. THEREFORE ANY WAVES IN U.S.
WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN ONE FOOT THROUGH THIS TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ISSUANCE REMAINS SUSPENDED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE
FOR NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RIPLEY DUE TO EXTENSIVE ICE
COVER.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ001.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ002.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SEFCOVIC
NEAR TERM...10/SEFCOVIC
SHORT TERM...JASZKA
LONG TERM...JASZKA
AVIATION...10
MARINE...JASZKA
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