799
FXUS61 KCLE 220529
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1229 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
9:40 PM UPDATE:
JUST TWEAKS TO MATCH OBS TO SKY, TEMPERATURES, AND DEW POINT
GRIDS. WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED THIS
EVENING...FOR INSTANCE, KYNG WAS SITTING A DEGREE LOWER THAN
THEIR PRIOR FORECAST LOW AFTER A WINDOW OF CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER,
WHERE SKIES HAVEN'T CLEARED TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY MILDER THAN THE GOING FORECAST. ATTEMPTED TO GET THIS
IN THE GRIDS AS BEST AS POSSIBLE, WHICH LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS A
DEGREE OR TWO FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS THERE SHOULD BE A NET
CLEARING TREND OVERNIGHT BEFORE SOME CLOUDS SPREAD BACK IN FROM
THE SOUTH INTO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES THE WEATHER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
STILL DEALING WITH SOME LINGERING SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH THE INTENSITY HAS REALLY BACKED
OFF SINCE THIS MORNING RESULTING FROM THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AND
WARMER AIR ALOFT. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE
LIMITED TO LESS THAN ONE INCH AND MOST LIKELY CONFINED TO
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON. ALL LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END LATER
THIS EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS WITH WIND
CHILLS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE, THOUGH HIGHS WILL
FINALLY RETURN TO THE FREEZING MARK IN MOST LOCATIONS UNDER
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM WITH
HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING ON SUNDAY WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
HOLDING FOR THE DAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START TO DEEPEN
IN THE UPPER GREAT PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND MOVE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND
COLD FRONT WITH IT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
PRIOR TO THAT ON MONDAY, A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION AND WE'LL SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS, UP TO 10-
15 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM UP INTO
THE MID 40S ACROSS THE BOARD WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE MONDAY EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH TEMPERATURES
BEING WELL ABOVE FREEZING, ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS RAIN.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND MONDAY NIGHT LOWS
WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MID 30S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION QUICKLY ON TUESDAY AND COULD LEAVE BEHIND A FEW
LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS ALONG NE OH AND NW PA. THERE'S THE POTENTIAL
FOR A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH THE PRECIPITATION ON THE BACK END OF
THE LOW AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING CLOSE TO FREEZING TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN BETWEEN
SYSTEM BEFORE ANOTHER SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THURSDAY SO ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE SURFACE
LOW AND PRECIPITATION WILL START TO CHANGE OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX
THEN PRIMARILY SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS IT TAPERS OFF.
HIGHS FOR MOST OF THE WEEK WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE 40S, THEN
DROP OFF SLIGHTLY DOWN INTO THE 30S TO END THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO LOW 30S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS, THEN
DROP DOWN INTO THE MID 20S THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS PERIOD
ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS. CURRENTLY, SATELLITE
DOES SHOW SOME LOWER MVFR CEILINGS NEAR THE FAR EASTERN
TERMINALS, INCLUDING KCAK, KYNG, AND KERI. THESE TERMINALS MAY
SEE CONDITIONS FLIP FLOP BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR BEFORE BECOMING
CONSISTENTLY VFR BY DAY BREAK. THERE IS NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED IN THIS PERIOD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 5-10
KNOTS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THIS AFTERNOON WHERE MORE TERMINALS
WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS BETWEEN 18-23Z. IN
ADDITION, GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NON-VFR IS
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NON-VFR
MAY RETURN IN SCATTERED TO PERHAPS WIDESPREAD RAIN AND/OR SNOW
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AT 10-15 KNOTS TONIGHT AS A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS TO 15-20 KNOTS ACROSS THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE LAKE WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH
AND A LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO THE NORTH OVER HUDSON BAY. WINDS WILL
DECREASE DOWN BACK DOWN TO 10-15 KNOTS AS EACH SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST AND CONTINUE TO BE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE ON
TUESDAY AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BE WESTERLY AT 10-15 KNOTS. WINDS
WILL SHIFT BACK OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 5-10 KNOTS AS A SURFACE RIDGE
MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE LAKE ON WEDNESDAY.
LAKE ERIE IS PRIMARILY ICE-COVERED. THEREFORE ANY WAVES IN U.S.
WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN ONE FOOT THROUGH THIS TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ISSUANCE REMAINS SUSPENDED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE
FOR NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RIPLEY DUE TO EXTENSIVE ICE
COVER.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KAHN
NEAR TERM...KAHN/SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM...23
AVIATION...04
MARINE...23
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