749
FXUS61 KCLE 222013
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
313 PM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
A RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THROUGH SUNDAY. BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT, THE RIDGE EXITS
SLOWLY EASTWARD BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, A
NARROW RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY,
THIS RIDGE SHOULD EXIT EASTWARD AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ALOFT, W'ERLY TO WNW'ERLY FLOW AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
AFFECT OUR REGION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT
PRECEDING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXES WILL ALLOW PERIODIC MID/UPPER-
LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO IMPACT OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE, OUR CWA
REMAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THE CORE
OF THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN VICINITY OF THE TN VALLEY AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. STABILIZING SUBSIDENCE AND A RATHER DRY LOW-
LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ACCOMPANYING THE SURFACE RIDGE ARE EXPECTED
TO ALLOW FAIR WEATHER TO PERSIST IN NORTHERN OH AND NW PA. S'ERLY TO
SW'ERLY REGIONAL SURFACE WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH NET LOW-LEVEL WAA AND A GRADUAL MODERATING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20'S AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY. DURING LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 30'S AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW-LEVEL WAA IS COMPLEMENTED BY PEEKS OF SUNSHINE
AND RESULTING DAYTIME WARMING. SUNDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE
MILDER. LOWS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 20'S ACROSS NORTHERN OH
AND NW PA AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID-40S FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS HUDSON BAY ON
MONDAY, WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTING IN ELEVATED SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. A
SECONDARY UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WHICH COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCATTERED TO PERHAPS
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS, THOUGH AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT
- A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED TO CONTINUE FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH DAILY HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID-40S. THE WARMEST DAY
APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A SERIES OF SYSTEMS TO END THE
WEEK, WITH HIGHS APPROACHING THE LOWER 50S.
THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT,
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. PRIMARILY RAIN IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE MONDAY
SYSTEM EARLIER IN THE WEEK, ALBEIT STILL LIGHT OVERALL - A QUARTER
OF AN INCH OR LESS. ANTICIPATE MUCH OF THE CURRENT SNOWPACK TO HAVE
MELTED BY THE TIME THIS SYSTEM ARRIVES, BUT MAY STILL NEED TO
MONITOR AREA RIVERS FOR A LOW-END FLOOD POTENTIAL. LINGERING UPPER-
TROUGHING MAY RESULT IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT, THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON COVERAGE.
FINALLY, ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWEEP EAST THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY, USHERING IN ANOTHER ROUND
OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. PRECIPITATION TYPE APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY
RAIN, THOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT SOME MIXED SNOW. ONCE AGAIN,
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE ON THE LOWER END OF THE SPECTRA
WITH THIS SYSTEM.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
W'ERLY TO WNW'ERLY FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IMPACT
OUR AREA THROUGH 18Z/SUN. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CLOUD COVER,
ESPECIALLY IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL ATMOSPHERE, WILL ACCOMPANY
THESE DISTURBANCES. OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER AND VFR ARE EXPECTED.
AT THE SURFACE, OUR REGION REMAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK OF A
RIDGE THAT WILL REMAIN FOCUSED FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. OUR REGIONAL SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SW'ERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUST UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT
TIMES, ESPECIALLY THROUGH ~23Z/SAT AND AGAIN AFTER ~15Z/SUN.
OUTLOOK...PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS WITH NON-VFR POSSIBLE THIS
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
LAKE ERIE IS PRIMARILY ICE-COVERED AND THUS THE SMALL CRAFT ISSUANCE
REMAINS SUSPENDED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. NO ADDITIONAL MARINE
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS MAY PEAK IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE ON MONDAY, AND WILL NEED
TO MONITOR ANY SIGNIFICANT BREAKS OR SHIFTS IN THE ICE ACROSS LAKE
ERIE. OTHERWISE, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY RANGE IN THE 10 TO
15 KNOT RANGE FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JASZKA
NEAR TERM...JASZKA
SHORT TERM...KAHN
LONG TERM...KAHN
AVIATION...JASZKA
MARINE...KAHN
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