412
FXUS61 KCLE 230253
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
953 PM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
A RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THROUGH SUNDAY. BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT, THE RIDGE EXITS
SLOWLY EASTWARD BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, A
NARROW RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY,
THIS RIDGE SHOULD EXIT EASTWARD AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
9:30 PM UPDATE...
A MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE IS ENTERING EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND WILL
DROP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC BY MORNING. VERY DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE, SO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED OTHER THAN VIRGA
ALOFT, SO KEPT THE FORECAST DRY OVERNIGHT. TEMPS, DEW POINTS,
AND WINDS LOOK GOOD.
6:30 PM UPDATE...
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK REASONABLE THIS EVENING. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER HAS STARTED TO DECOUPLE WITH SUNSET, SO WINDS
WILL RAPIDLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT HOUR, AND EXPECT GENERALLY SW
WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS THE REST OF THE EVENING.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
ALOFT, W'ERLY TO WNW'ERLY FLOW AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
AFFECT OUR REGION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT
PRECEDING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXES WILL ALLOW PERIODIC MID/UPPER-
LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO IMPACT OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE, OUR CWA
REMAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THE CORE
OF THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN VICINITY OF THE TN VALLEY AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. STABILIZING SUBSIDENCE AND A RATHER DRY LOW-
LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ACCOMPANYING THE SURFACE RIDGE ARE EXPECTED
TO ALLOW FAIR WEATHER TO PERSIST IN NORTHERN OH AND NW PA. S'ERLY TO
SW'ERLY REGIONAL SURFACE WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH NET LOW-LEVEL WAA AND A GRADUAL MODERATING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20'S AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY. DURING LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 30'S AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW-LEVEL WAA IS COMPLEMENTED BY PEEKS OF SUNSHINE
AND RESULTING DAYTIME WARMING. SUNDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE
MILDER. LOWS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 20'S ACROSS NORTHERN OH
AND NW PA AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID-40S FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS HUDSON BAY ON
MONDAY, WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTING IN ELEVATED SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. A
SECONDARY UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WHICH COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCATTERED TO PERHAPS
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS, THOUGH AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT
- A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED TO CONTINUE FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH DAILY HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID-40S. THE WARMEST DAY
APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A SERIES OF SYSTEMS TO END THE
WEEK, WITH HIGHS APPROACHING THE LOWER 50S.
THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT,
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. PRIMARILY RAIN IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE MONDAY
SYSTEM EARLIER IN THE WEEK, ALBEIT STILL LIGHT OVERALL - A QUARTER
OF AN INCH OR LESS. ANTICIPATE MUCH OF THE CURRENT SNOWPACK TO HAVE
MELTED BY THE TIME THIS SYSTEM ARRIVES, BUT MAY STILL NEED TO
MONITOR AREA RIVERS FOR A LOW-END FLOOD POTENTIAL. LINGERING UPPER-
TROUGHING MAY RESULT IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT, THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON COVERAGE.
FINALLY, ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWEEP EAST THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY, USHERING IN ANOTHER ROUND
OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. PRECIPITATION TYPE APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY
RAIN, THOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT SOME MIXED SNOW. ONCE AGAIN,
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE ON THE LOWER END OF THE SPECTRA
WITH THIS SYSTEM.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE AS A LARGE AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY EXTENDS
RIDGING NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SUPPORT
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW, BUT
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING THROUGH LINGERING MID/UPPER
TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CAUSE HIGH AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AT TIMES. THE STRONGEST SHORTWAVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WILL CAUSE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN 5 TO 10 THOUSAND FOOT CLOUD
DECK.
SW WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 5-10 KNOTS THE REST OF THIS EVENING
THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE INCREASING A BIT LATE SUNDAY MORNING.
SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 KNOTS ARE LIKELY AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG AND WEST OF I-71 BEFORE DECREASING TOWARD SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS WITH NON-VFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
MARINE
LAKE ERIE IS PRIMARILY ICE-COVERED AND THUS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
ISSUANCE REMAINS SUSPENDED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. NO ADDITIONAL
MARINE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY PEAK IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE ON MONDAY, AND
WILL NEED TO MONITOR ANY SIGNIFICANT BREAKS OR SHIFTS IN THE ICE
ACROSS LAKE ERIE. OTHERWISE, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY RANGE
IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JASZKA
NEAR TERM...GARUCKAS/JASZKA
SHORT TERM...KAHN
LONG TERM...KAHN
AVIATION...GARUCKAS
MARINE...KAHN
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