037
FXUS61 KCLE 231135
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
635 AM EST SUN FEB 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING
EAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TO START
THE WEEK, MOVING A COLD FRONT EAST ON TUESDAY. A BRIEF RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
630 AM UPDATE...
THERE WERE NO CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE AS THE FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK THIS MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA
TODAY BEFORE DEPARTING TO THE EAST LATE THIS EVENING. AN
ASSOCIATED HIGH AT THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUED
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA, INCREASING THE WAA. HIGHS TODAY
WILL CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. UNFORTUNATELY, AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TODAY, CLOUDS WILL SPREAD EAST RESULTING IN MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TODAY WITH PERIODIC PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL REMAIN PRETTY MILD WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY FALLING
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
ON MONDAY, AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES EAST, A WEAK BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA, ALTHOUGH MINIMAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
AS THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY AND INHIBIT ANY POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIPITATION. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ON
MONDAY AS WINDS GAIN A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AND ARE
SUSTAINED AT 10 TO 15 MPH, GUSTING UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH. WINDS MAY
BE LOCALLY ENHANCED ACROSS NW PA WHERE DOWNSLOPING IS POTENTIAL.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE MILD WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 40S. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING ANY PROBLEMS AT THIS
POINT, WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR RIVER CONDITIONS AS
SNOWMELT CREATES RUNOFF AND HEATING COULD RESULT IN BREAKING UP
OF ICE ON LOCAL RIVERS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BRING SEASONABLE TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE ZONAL FOR THE EARLY TO MID PART OF THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS. A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK TROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGIONS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS ADVANCING COLD
FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S ON TUESDAY.
THE MILDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STRETCH FROM THE GREAT LAKES DOWN TO
THE GULF COAST REGION ON THURSDAY. COOLER BUT MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE OF A FEW RAIN SHOWERS, POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SOME WET
SNOW ON THURSDAY WITH THE COOLER WEATHER. THERE WILL BE BREAK
IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON FRIDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MAY DEVELOP AND ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
WARM UP IN TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO
COLDER WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
THIS MORNING, PATCHY LOWER CLOUDS ARE PUSHING EAST WITH CEILINGS
BETWEEN 3500-5000FT WITH AREAS OUTSIDE OF THESE MOSTLY CLEAR.
THIS AFTERNOON, A HIGHER (NEAR 10KFT) AND MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD
DECK WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THESE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST
FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH A COUPLE BREAKS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS
FOR ALL TERMINALS TODAY BEFORE GAINING A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT THIS EVENING AND WEAKENING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS. NEAR THE
TALE END OF THIS PERIOD, SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE TO 10-12 KNOTS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE AFTER
12Z MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS WITH NON-VFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
MARINE
LAKE ERIE IS PRIMARILY ICE-COVERED AND THUS THE SMALL CRAFT ISSUANCE
REMAINS SUSPENDED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. NO ADDITIONAL MARINE
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE 20
TO 25 KNOTS ON MONDAY AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
BREAKS OR SHIFTS IN THE ICE ACROSS LAKE ERIE. OTHERWISE, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...04
NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...04
MARINE...77
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