036
FXUS61 KCLE 271344
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
944 AM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND TRACKS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY
SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE MAIN MESSAGE FOR THE NEAR TERM FORECAST IS NICE, FAIR
WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AND A RETURN OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
TOMORROW. IT IS STARTING OFF COLD UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING, TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA WITH SOME LOW 30S CLOSER TO CENTRAL OHIO. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN REGION IS
DOMINATING OUR WEATHER PATTERN THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE
TODAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST LATER TODAY. WE WILL SEE SUNSHINE TODAY WITH AN INCREASE
IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY FROM THE WEST. A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN AND INCREASE AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH LATER TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO UPPER 50S. A FEW SPOTS IN NORTHWEST
OHIO MAY REACH 60 DEGREES.
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL START TO CHANGE TOWARDS MORE
UNSETTLE LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL START TO SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION TONIGHT AND TRACK TOWARDS
THE UPPER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE
AREA, STARTING DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS FRIDAY MORNING AND
BECOMING LIKELY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
BE LIKELY ON FRIDAY BUT THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED WILL BE
LIGHT ON AVERAGE AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR SLIGHTLY
GREATER. THE SHOWER CHANCES WILL START TO DECREASE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
DESPITE THE ADDED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES, TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM UP INTO THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW SPOTS IN
NWOH MAY REACH 70 DEGREES FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND A PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING OR AFTERNOON
BEFORE RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN INCREASE AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. PERIODIC WARM SECTOR SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
PERIOD WITH LOWER POPS AT SOME POINT SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
BEFORE THE SURFACE LOW'S COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
THERE'S STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL SUNDAY. FIRST AND FOREMOST, THERE IS STILL QUITE A LOT TO
IRON OUT WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. SECOND, PERIODS OF
RAIN AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT INSTABILITY AND THE BEST
FORCING MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL A DIURNALLY UNFAVORABLE TIMEFRAME.
HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE A DYNAMIC SYSTEM AND THERE WILL BE QUITE
A BIT OF SHEAR TO WORK WITH SO SOME ORGANIZED SHOWERS/STORMS STILL
CAN'T BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY IF THERE'S ANY
CLEARING/DESTABILIZATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND
NUISANCE FLOODING ISSUES IF REPEATED ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN RAIN OCCUR OVER ANY SINGLE LOCATION.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S EXPECTED. SATURDAY
WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMER DAY OF THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH SUNDAY'S
HIGHS WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN MOST SPOTS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SURFACE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE PROGRESSING
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY BEFORE DEPARTING TO THE EAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MAY NOT CROSS THE
LOCAL AREA UNTIL AS LATE AS MONDAY EVENING AND SHOWERS MAY LINGER
UNTIL THIS FEATURE CLEARS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN MAY BRIEFLY
MIX WITH SNOW ON THE BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT. AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY, HOWEVER RAIN
CHANCES LIKELY RETURN AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S EXPECTED MONDAY AND 40S AND POSSIBLY
LOWER 50S MORE LIKELY ON TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL LIKELY TREND WARMER AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE MAIN MESSAGE FOR AVIATION WEATHER WITH THIS TAF UPDATE IS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE TREND GOING FORWARD WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE OF
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
CEILINGS WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER TO NEAR 5000 FEET BY THIS EVENING
AND NEAR 3500 FEET TOWARDS THE END OF THE TIME PERIOD OR AFTER
09Z TONIGHT. WINDS WILL START OUT FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS
MORNING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10
TO 13 KNOTS BY MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS POSSIBLE. THE GUSTS WILL RELAX AFTER 23Z WITH WIND SPEEDS
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS MOVING INTO NORTHWEST OHIO BY THE END OF THE 24 HOUR
TIME PERIOD OR AFTER 09Z TONIGHT. ANY NON-VFR CONDITIONS MAY
RETURN AFTER 12Z FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR EXPECTED WITH PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, ALTHOUGH
A FEW HIGH RES GUIDANCE MEMBERS ARE HINTING AT WINDS BRIEFLY
APPROACHING 20 KNOTS IN THE EASTERN BASIN EARLY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT
THIS POINT. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY MORNING
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, DURING WHICH TIME SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 20
KNOTS BY SATURDAY EVENING AND BECOME MORE EASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES AND ITS COLD FRONT APPROACHES LAKE
ERIE FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY
BE NEEDED IF WINDS TREND HIGHER, BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF HEADLINES
WILL ARRIVE WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...77
NEAR TERM...77
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...77
MARINE...15
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