977
FXUS61 KCLE 271947
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
347 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY. THIS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY, EXTENDING A COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE AREA ON
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
MAIN CONCERN OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.
ALREADY SEEING ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
AHEAD THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND MUCAPE GRADIENT ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MO THIS AFTERNOON, AIDED BY A MODEST 35 TO 40-KNOTS
SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL JET. THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSITY TO 40 TO 45 KNOTS TONIGHT AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS THE WARM
FRONT NORTH AND NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. DO
ANTICIPATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MUCAPE
GRADIENT, PARTICULARLY ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE WARM FRONT FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON SO WENT AHEAD AND ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER WITH
THIS FORECAST UPDATE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE ALSO INCREASED WITH
THIS FORECAST UPDATE, WITH A QUICK HALF INCH TO PERHAPS THREE-
QUARTERS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVIER CONVECTION DEVELOPS.
DRY WEATHER IS FAVORED BEHIND THE WARM FRONT, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO QUICKLY RISE INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S
OUT WEST.
OTHERWISE, FOR THE REST OF TODAY, A WEAK LAKE BREEZE HAS
DEVELOPED ALONG LAKESHORE GENERALLY EAST OF CLEVELAND, ALTHOUGH
RECENT OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST IT WILL RETREAT BACK OUT OVER THE
LAKE AS THE MSLP GRADIENT INCREASES INTO THIS EVENING. FAVORED A
DRY FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LEVELS MIXED OUT A
LITTLE MORE THAN ANTICIPATED, RESULTING IN LARGE T/TD SPREADS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD (FOCUSING ON DAYS 3 AND 4 OF THE FORECAST)
CONTINUES TO LOOK ACTIVE AS AN BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE
LOW ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA. INITIALLY ON SATURDAY, A WARM
FRONT WILL HAVE SETTLED NORTH OF THE AREA, ALLOWING FOR A SHIFT TO A
WAA AND INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA WITH GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 MPH, GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN COUNTIES. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE A RESULT OF A POTENT LLJ
OF 40-50 KNOTS PUSHING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS COMBINATION OF
LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS MIXED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FROM A SHORT WAVE SHOULD PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY, BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING PARENT LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
ON SUNDAY, THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE
DAY AHEAD OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON SUNDAY,
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A PUSH OF MOISTURE NORTH, INCREASING DEW
POINTS INTO THE UPPER 50S, POSSIBLE TOUCHING 60 BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
IN ADDITION, LINGERING IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A STRONG LLJ, MODELED
CAPE VALUES GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY, MAXING OUT NEAR 00Z
MONDAY JUST OVER 1000 J/KG WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 50
KNOTS. THESE CONDITIONS WOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS, MOST LIKELY IN THE EVENING TO EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS ON
SUNDAY. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THERE CONTINUES TO BE QUITE A
BIT OF DIVERGENCE AMONGST MODELS IN HANDLING THE TRACK AND TIMING OF
THE SURFACE LOW, WITH THE ECWMF BEING THE BIGGEST OUTLIER WITH A
MUCH SLOW PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM. THESE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN
THE FORECAST MAY MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SEVERE WEATHER OR NO
SEVERE WEATHER, SO STAY TUNED FOR MORE UPDATES AS THE TIME GETS
CLOSER. OTHER FACTORS THAT MAY INHIBIT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS
THE EARLIER POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND LINGERING CLOUDS KEEPING
INSTABILITY LOWER OR TIME SHIFTING AND BECOMING LESS DIURNALLY
FAVORABLE. KNOWING ALL OF THIS, SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF US-224 IN THE DAY 4 OUTLOOK. WITH THE STRONG SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP AND ALL HAZARDS TO BE POSSIBLE.
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT, A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL RESULT
IN PERIOD OF HEAVY, EFFICIENT RAINFALL WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING CONCERNS. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS JUST OVER 1" EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE
STRONGEST STORMS. AS A RESULT, WPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE AREA IN A
MARGINAL DAY 4 ERO.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S, WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SATURDAY WILL REMAIN VERY MILD, ONLY DROPPING INTO
THE 50S, BUT COOLING INTO THE 40S ON SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH EAST.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST OUT OF THE AREA.
THESE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. BY
TUESDAY MORNING, CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT AND REMAIN LIKE THIS INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, A MORE POTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL US TOWARDS THE REGION,
MOVING ANOTHER ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW NORTHEAST. THIS WILL PRESENT
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. THIS SYSTEM AGAIN LOOKS
RATHER ROBUST AND WILL LIKELY BRING WITH IT ANOTHER PERIOD OF
CONCERN FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THERE IS QUITE A
BIT OF DIVERGENCE IN MODEL AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING THIS SYSTEM, IT
IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE CSU-MLP PROBABILITIES ARE ALREADY
HIGHLIGHTING PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR SEVERE WEATHER. WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS MIDWEEK SYSTEM AND TRENDS WITHIN MODELS.
THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE ANOTHER PERIOD OF ROLLER COASTER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD, STARTING OUT IN THE 40S
TO LOW 50S BEFORE AGAIN WARMING INTO THE 60S FOR THE END OF THE
PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND, DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING MORE MILD IN
THE UPPER 40S BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEGRADATION TO NON-VFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF SITES
(TOL/FDY/MFD). A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY REMAINS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE US-30
CORRIDOR, AND THUS HAVE INTRODUCED -TSRA TEMPOS AT FDY/MFD. LESS
CONFIDENT OF DIRECT -TSRA IMPACTS AT TOL, THUS THE VCTS MENTION.
THIS IS ALSO WHERE WE EXPECT THE NON-VFR VSBY IMPACTS TO OCCUR
(TOL/FDY/MFD). ELSEWHERE, ANTICIPATING LIGHTER RAIN WITH NON-VFR
CEILINGS AND/OR VSBYS LESS LIKELY AT THIS TIME.
WINDS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON, 10 TO
15 KNOTS WITH PERIODIC GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL
BECOME 5 KNOTS OR LESS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, AND
BEGIN TO BRIEFLY FAVOR A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT. WINDS WILL THEN ABRUPTLY SHIFT BACK
TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE WARM FRONT LATE FRIDAY MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON, 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH PERIODIC GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY. NON-VFR MORE LIKELY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NON-VFR MAY LINGER IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
MARINE
CALM MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT OVER THE AREA. LATE FRIDAY EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH AND GRADUALLY
MOVE NORTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE, INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO NEAR 20
KNOTS BY SATURDAY MORNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS MAY
BE A PERIOD WHERE A SMALL CRAFT IS NEEDED, BUT GIVEN VERY MARGINAL
WINDS, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. A LULL IN WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY WILL OCCUR BEFORE SHIFTING TO
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY, WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS WITH
ONSHORE FLOW RESULTING IN WAVES BUILDING TO 4-6 FEET. THERE IS
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN NEEDING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT A STRONGER SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS WITH
ONSHORE FLOW. BY TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS AND RESULTS IN
VARIABLE WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KAHN
NEAR TERM...KAHN
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...KAHN
MARINE...04
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