385
FXUS61 KCLE 281025
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
625 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
..12Z TAF AVIATION FORECAST UPDATE
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY. THIS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY, EXTENDING A COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE AREA ON
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
630 AM UPDATE...
THERE WERE NO FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED WITH THIS MORNING'S
UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY MESSAGE FOR THE NEAR TERM FORECAST IS A WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY MUCH
WARMER WEATHER ON SATURDAY. THE WARM FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES
FROM NEAR THER CHICAGO AREA DOWN TOWARDS SOUTHERN OHIO THIS
MORNING. THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY. THERE ARE ALREADY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS WARM FRONT THIS MORNING. WE
ANTICIPATE THIS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE WARM
FRONT ADVANCES THROUGH THE AREA LATER TODAY. THE AVERAGE QPF HAS
INCREASED WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WITH GENERALLY A TENTH
TO THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS LIMITED BUT WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER TODAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED
TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S OVER NWPA AND
NEOH TO THE LOWER 70S OVER NWOH THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT, WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY 12 TO 18 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. THE WEATHER WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET
TONIGHT AND MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE VERY MILD IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S TONIGHT. IT WILL BE
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SATURDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. SATURDAY WILL
BE VERY SPRING-LIKE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
SATURDAY EVENING.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AN ACTIVE SHORT TERM PERIOD IN STORE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL AS AN UPPER TROUGH
AND SURFACE LOW MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW WITH SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
WARM, MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY,
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WITH
ACCOMPANYING DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. FAIRLY EFFICIENT RAINFALL
EXPECTED AS PWATS WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE, BASED ON
ILN SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. WPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1/4) FOR FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THEIR
DAY 3 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
INITIATION OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. THE BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS CURRENTLY
LIES TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER MLCAPE VALUES
MAY RISE TO 1000 J/KG ACCOMPANIED BY BULK SHEAR TO 40-50 KNOTS,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR, LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. LINGERING
CLOUD COVER AND THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY INHIBIT SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS FOR UPDATES. WITH THE LATEST SWODY3 UPDATE, SPC HAS PLACED
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5). ALL HAZARDS
ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY SEVERE STORM THAT INITIATES INCLUDING DAMAGING
WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES.
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
HIGHS WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER ON MONDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S. MUCH COOLER ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING TO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S. MEAN LAYER FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT BY MONDAY NIGHT AND SOME LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SNOWBELT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
ANOTHER STRETCH OF ACTIVE WEATHER AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PROGRESSES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
CURRENTLY HAVE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ENTERING FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CSU-MLP PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. IT'S
STILL A BIT TOO FAR OUT FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS, BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP
AN EYE ON.
COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER
50S BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE MAIN MESSAGE FOR AVIATION WEATHER IS CONDITIONS WILL START
OUT VFR BUT BECOME MVFR LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THESE CEILINGS
WILL SLOWLY LOWER TO MVFR AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIKELY LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT. WE HAVE MENTIONED
TEMPO GROUPS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES FOR
THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL END
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL START OUT FROM THE SOUTH 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS WITH THE WARM FRONT AND
BEHIND IT LATER TODAY. THE SOUTH- SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN 10
TO 14 KNOTS, GUSTY UP TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH NON-VFR ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT, THROUGH THIS TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW
MAY MIX WITH RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. NOTE:
PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY EVENING.
MARINE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS THIS MORNING BEFORE A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
TURN SOUTHWESTERLY WHILE INCREASING TO 15-25 KNOTS BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FEET
EAST OF THE ISLANDS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE
DAY ON SATURDAY BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS RETURN SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT EAST ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR
WESTERLY WINDS AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15-
25 KNOTS. THIS ONSHORE FLOW WILL BUILD WAVE HEIGHTS TO 3-6 FEET
ALONG THE LAKESHORE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE ON TUESDAY
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS
THROUGH TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, THOUGH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
BEING MET WITH THE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT ON MONDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...77
NEAR TERM...77
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...77
MARINE...13
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