534
FXUS61 KCLE 290500
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
100 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
..06Z TAF AVIATION FORECAST UPDATE
SYNOPSIS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SATURDAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL EXTEND A COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE AREA
ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, LIFTING A WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
905 PM UPDATE...
WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER ARE EXITING NW PA.
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY OVERNIGHT, BUT PATCHY PVA IN THE FLOW ALOFT
WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT BRINGS ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY AFTER 12Z SATURDAY. MADE SOME MINOR OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS. NOT MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE DROP OFF FROM
CURRENT VALUES GIVEN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A MILD NEAR TERM PERIOD IS IN STORE IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM
FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH POCKETS OF LIGHTNING NOTED ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST
OHIO AND NORTHERN INDIANA WHERE A WEAK MUCAPE GRADIENT OF 250 TO
500 J/KG IS PRESENT. DO THINK THE OVERALL THREAT FOR LIGHTNING
IS LOW THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THOUGH
CAN'T RULE OUT OCCASIONAL ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S,
AIDED BY A STRONG 50 TO 55-KNOT SW LOW- LEVEL JET.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE ON SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE LOW TO MID-70S IN MOST SPOTS. BROAD WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MOIST MID-LEVELS COULD RESULT IN PERIODIC ISOLATED OR
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA, PARTICULARLY IN THE
MORNING, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON COVERAGE. A BETTER PUSH OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, AIDED BY A SW LOW-LEVEL JET OF AROUND 50
KNOTS, WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVING GENERALLY SOUTH TO NORTH INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL BE A DECENT RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION, WITH
TOTALS RANGING FROM AROUND 0.5 INCHES TO 0.75 INCHES BY SUNDAY
MORNING.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL ENTER THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND ALLOW FOR
EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND MAY PROVIDE SOME SUPPRESSION TO
SHOWERS IN THE REGION AND HAVE SOME LOWER POPS AS COVERAGE SHOULD
DECREASE. HOWEVER, ON SUNDAY NIGHT, THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND STRONG
JET ENERGY WILL ENTER THE REGION. THESE FEATURES SHOULD FORM STORMS
UPSTREAM ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THAT
WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR ALL SEVERE WEATHER
HAZARDS, INCLUDING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, AND EVEN A
COUPLE TORNADOES. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING IN THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, THE DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WITH A 50-60 KT LOW LEVEL JET AT 850 MB, 40-60 KT OF
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR, AND 0-3 KM SRH VALUES ABOVE 200 M2/S2. THE
LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE THE SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND JETS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND IF THEY
WILL TAKE AWAY ALL INSTABILITY WITH THE SYSTEM. THE STRONGER THE
STORMS ARE UPSTREAM OF THE AREA, THE BETTER CHANCES OF SEVERE
WEATHER INTO THE LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS HIGHLIGHTED IN A DAY 3 SLIGHT RISK BY SPC FOR THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH AN ENHANCED RISK JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST.
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BUT WILL BE SLOW TO FULLY MOVE
AWAY AND THERE COULD STILL BE SOME CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SHARPLY COOL
WITH THE FRONT DOWN TO THE 20S ON MONDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH COLD AIR OVER A 40+ DEGREE LAKE ERIE TO GENERATE SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
TUESDAY WILL BE THE COLD DAY OF THE STRETCH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 40S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
FREEZING IN THE 30S. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE NEXT DAY TO WATCH WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND SUPPORT A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A WARM FRONT WILL BE SWIFT TO LIFT
ACROSS THE AREA AND ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO RETURN INTO THE 60S.
THERE WILL BE AMPLE JET ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AND THERE WILL BE A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT TO
ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. THEREFORE, WEDNESDAY WILL NEED TO BEAR SOME WATCHING
AS THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES. FOR THURSDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL SWING
THROUGH THE REGION AS THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
NORTHEAST. THERE WILL BE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL OFF THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND START TO
CLEAR OUT THE RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. WILL HAVE SOME RESIDUAL CHANCE
POPS TO REFLECT THE POTENTIAL FOR THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM TO SLOW
DOWN.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE WEATHER MESSAGE FOR THIS AVIATION UPDATE WILL BE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SKIES WILL
GENERALLY BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE MORNING.
CLOUDS MAIN INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BUT
STAY AT VFR. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS MAY
RELAX LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. NON-CONVECTIVE LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING DUE TO
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET RIGHT OFF THE SURFACE.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY IN WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NON-VFR LIKELY TO RETURN FROM WEST TO EAST IN
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD IN THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE SUNDAY
NIGHT. NON-VFR MAY LINGER IN PERIODIC RAIN AND/OR LOW CEILINGS
ON MONDAY.
MARINE
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS CHARGE NORTH TOWARD LAKE ERIE
THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSS TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKE TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL INCREASE QUITE A BIT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH AN
AVERAGE OF 15 TO 25 KTS OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE. THERE
STRONGER WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY AND WAVES
WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS.
THEREFORE, HAVE OPTED TO HOIST A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EAST OF
VERMILION STARTING TONIGHT AND GOING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
A DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
ON SUNDAY AND ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER WINDS WILL RETURN ON
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS TO CONTEND WITH ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINE DURING THIS
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BEHIND THE
SYSTEM AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW COULD PRODUCE
ELEVATED WAVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS AND SUSTAIN
A LONGER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTH FOR TUESDAY AND ALLOW FOR A QUIETER MARINE
WEATHER PERIOD.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ145>149.
SYNOPSIS...KAHN
NEAR TERM...KAHN/26
SHORT TERM...SEFCOVIC
LONG TERM...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...77
MARINE...SEFCOVIC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page