190
FXUS61 KCLE 291806
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
206 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY
AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. THIS
LOW WILL EXTEND A COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY,
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY, LIFTING A WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS NORTHWEST WHERE
700MB MOISTURE ADVECTION IS FOCUSED. SHOWERS EAST OF I-71 ARE
RAPIDLY DISSIPATING AS THEY ENCOUNTER DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AND ARE
REMOVED FROM THE BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION. THE OPPORTUNITY
REMAINS FOR A LIGHT SHOWER EAST OF I-71 BUT SHOULD BE BRIEF. IN
GENERAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD DECK APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTH.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN WEATHER MESSAGE FOR THE NEAR TERM FORECAST IS WARM
SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS.
WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP IN WARM AIR AND
MOISTURE ON SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS WEEKEND. TODAY
WILL BE THE BETTER DAY OF THE WEEKEND. SKIES WILL GENERALLY STAY
PARTLY CLOUDY TO AT TIMES MOSTLY CLOUDY. MOST OF THE AREA WILL
REMAIN DRY TODAY BUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S TODAY.
THE WEATHER WILL START OUT MOSTLY QUIET THIS EVENING BUT A WEAK
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE THROUGH THE 500 MB FLOW AFTER
06Z TONIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE SUNDAY MORNING
RAIN SHOWERS WILL GIVE WAY TO DRIER PERIOD MIDDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION REMAINS ON HOW MUCH PEAKS OF SUNSHINE
AND DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SUNDAY.
IF THERE IS A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES COULD CLIMB A
LITTLE HIGHER. THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY
EVENING. SEE THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW ENTER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL INITIATE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WEST OF THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ON SUNDAY
BEFORE EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO THE I-75 CORRIDOR NEAR SUNSET
SUNDAY NIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL BE ENTERING AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE
INSTABILITY (A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF MLCAPE) WILL GRADUALLY BE
DECREASING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER, A
FAVORABLE DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH 30-50 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND 0-1 KM SRH VALUES OF 150-200 M2/S2. DESPITE THIS,
THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTATINY ON THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA GIVEN SHOWER AND
CLOUD COVERAGE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND THE MAGNITUDE OF
STORMS THAT DEVELOP TO THE WEST. MORE LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WEAKER TO THE WEST WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY
DECREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS HIGHLIGHTED IN A DAY 2
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) FROM THE SPC WITH ALL SEVERE WEATHER
HAZARDS ON THE TABLE.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. MUCH COOLER AIRMASS ENTERS
BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES COOL TO
THE -5 TO -10C RANGE OVER A MOSTLY ICE FREE ~40F LAKE. THIS MAY LEAD
TO SOME LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF I-77 MONDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO DRY, BUT COOL, CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS AND MONDAY HIGHS IN THE 50S WILL BE ACHIEVED EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MUCH COLDER BY
MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE THE MID 40S WITH
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ALONG THE LAKESHORE. LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT
SETTLE IN THE MID 30S, LOW 30S ACROSS THE SNOWBELT REGION.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY AND ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE MID 60S. BOTH SPC AND
CSU-MLP CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL, HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO BECOME A CONCERN WITH THE MID-
WEEK SYSTEM. WPC HAS INTRODUCED A DAY 5 MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) IN
THEIR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND
THE MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
EAST ON THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW EXITS TO THE NORTH. BY FRIDAY,
THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH WILL KEEP POPS IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL RISE INTO THE 60S WITH HIGHS ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES COOLER IN THE
50S ON FRIDAY.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH CEILINGS OF
6-10K FEET. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO
WHERE GOOD MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS FOCUSED. THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER
EAST WE ARE SEEING SHOWERS DISSIPATE AS THEY ENCOUNTER DRY LOW
LEVEL AIR AND LACK THE BETTER SUPPORT TO THE WEST. AFTER THIS
ROUND OF SHOWERS LIFTS NORTH, WE EXPECT RAIN TO ARRIVE FROM WEST
TO EAST BETWEEN 04Z-13Z TONIGHT. CEILINGS WILL LOWER AFTER THE
RAIN BEGINS, TRANSITIONING TO MVFR AND EVEN TO IFR FOR MOST
LOCATIONS WITH 3-5 MILE VISIBILITIES. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY
UNTIL LATER ON SUNDAY. CEILINGS WILL START TO IMPROVE BACK TO
MVFR TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ON SUNDAY AS MIXING
INCREASES.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 20-25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. ERI HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING OCCASIONAL STRONGER GUSTS
TO 35+ KNOTS BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS LIKELY AS A
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHEAST. ERI MAY SEE WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS 03Z THEN VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE EXPECT WINDS TO LOSE THE GUSTINESS AS
STABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOP AFTER 00Z. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS WILL
RETURN BETWEEN 14-18Z SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY TO RETURN FROM WEST TO EAST IN
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE SUNDAY NIGHT. NON-
VFR MAY LINGER IN PERIODIC RAIN AND/OR LOW CEILINGS ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS NORTH OF THE LAKE TODAY WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS 15-20 KNOTS CONTINUING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SHORTENED THE WINDOW OF HIGHER WIND SPEEDS ACROSS LAKE
ERIE AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE END TIME OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
ACCORDINGLY. WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING WHILE DECREASING TO
10-15 KNOTS. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL SWING A COLD
FRONT EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE TURNING
WESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY LATE
MONDAY MORNING. ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL ALLOW
FOR WAVE HEIGHTS ACROSS NEARSHORE ZONES TO BUILD TO 3-5 FEET EAST OF
THE ISLANDS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD BY TUESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO DECREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS. NEXT
IMPACTFUL SYSTEM APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS
WEDNESDAY MORNING INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS BEFORE TURNING
SOUTHEASTERLY AND INCREASING FURTHER TO THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE.
ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...77
NEAR TERM...10/77
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...10
MARINE...13
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