235
FXUS61 KCLE 292336
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
736 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE PLAINS AND REACH LAKE MICHIGAN BY
SUNDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC BY MONDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
630 PM UPDATE...
SHOWERS THIS EVENING ARE ISOLATED TO THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA. THIS GENERAL AREA SEEMS THE MOST CONDUCIVE TO GENERATE
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EVENING, SO HAVE BACKED OFF
POP POTENTIAL FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND EAST OF I71. THESE
AFOREMENTIONED SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FILL IN BY LATE
THIS EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD EAST INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. OTHER THAN SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS TO REFLECT CURRENT OBS, NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES WERE NEEDED
WITH THIS UPDATE. IN ADDITION, THERE IS NO NEW OR CHANGED
INFORMATION FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TOMORROW, SO REFERENCE
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THAT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS NORTH TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A TROUGH ADVANCING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION. IN THE LOW LEVELS A FRONT IS STALLED ACROSS LAKE ERIE WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 70 SOUTH OF THE LAKE AND 30S TO 40S NORTH OF THE
LAKE. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS BEEN FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHWEST
OHIO TODAY WHERE THE BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS HAS BEEN ONGOING AND
CONTINUES ACROSS LAKE ERIE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN UPSTREAM IN INDIANA AND WILL MAKE SLOW
PROGRESS TOWARDS THE AREA UNTIL THE LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS UP LATE
THIS EVENING AND SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE. WIDESPREAD RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OHIO TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AND
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS IS
FUELED MY MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE 850-700MB LAYER AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY RIPPLES NORTHEAST OVERHEAD.
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY AS DRY
AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS ARRIVES BEHIND THE RAIN. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SOME LATE DAY MIXING
MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN ON
SUNDAY EVENING WITH A NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO WRAP IN FROM THE WEST AFTER 10 PM. THERE IS HOWEVER
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT CONVECTION MAY FIRE ON THAT LOOKS TO
ARRIVE BETWEEN 6 TO 8 PM AND COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE BASED CAPE GENERALLY LOOKS TO
BE BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY EVENING
IN NW OHIO BUT WILL WANE WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION AS WE HEAD
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE HOLD ONTO SOME
MINIMAL SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ALL THE WAY THROUGH 3 OR 4
AM. AN EML LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MORE
THAN ENOUGH SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE A CONCERN IF WE
CAN DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OF ADDITIONAL CONCERN IS
HOW UPSTREAM CONVECTION UNFOLDS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WHERE A LARGE AREA HAS BEEN
PLACED IN A ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. ROBUST CONVECTION
UPSTREAM COULD INTERFERE WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HEADING
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THERE IS HOWEVER GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH A 500MB JET STREAK AND SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND REACHING
NORTHWEST OHIO BETWEEN 8-11 PM. THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH SHEER
WITH 45-50 KNOTS AT 850MB AND 60 KNOTS AT 700MB. HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS IN NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE A BROKEN
LINE MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY
THREAT BUT GIVEN ABUNDANT SHEAR CAN NOT RULE OUT BOWING SEGMENTS
OR EVEN ROTATION WITH GOOD VEERING OF THE WIND WITH HEIGHT. IF
STRONG CONVECTION REACHES THE AREA WE COULD BE DEALING WITH
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AS LATE AS 4 AM.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA MONDAY MORNING, WITH SHOWER
CHANCES CONTINUING UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS. AM EXPECTING A NON-
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRACE WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT. MORNING HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW
50S ALONG I-75 TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE CANTON-YOUNGSTOWN AREA,
FALLING THROUGH THE 50S AND INTO THE 40S FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER NEAR YOUNGSTOWN ON
MONDAY BEFORE THE FRONT EXITS, THOUGH ANY SEVERE THREAT FOR MONDAY
SHOULD STAY TO OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
WITH A SPELL OF QUIETER CONDITIONS. SOME VERY WEAK LAKE-INDUCED
INSTABILITY BENEATH A SHALLOW INVERSION MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW FLURRIES
OR SPRINKLES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT,
THOUGH ODDS FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP ARE PRETTY LOW. AM EXPECTING LOWS
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY WILL
FEATURE PLENTY OF STRATUS LINGERING IN THE MORNING, ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF THE LAKE, WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN NORTHWEST PA TO THE LOW TO MID 40S
ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN OH, NEARING 50 TOWARDS CENTRAL OH. CLOUDS
BEGIN INCREASING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BUT
WITH RAIN LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S/NEAR 30 IN PA TO THE LOWER TO
UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN OH, WARMEST TOWARDS FINDLAY-MT VERNON.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AN UNSETTLED LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH A TROUGH
OVER THE WEST, A RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, AND A WAVERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC ZONE RUNNING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AS
VARIES WAVES EJECT OUT OF THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH AND EAST-NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE MAIN FOCUS IS A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT
AND LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE DEEPENING TO <990MB. A WARM
FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY AND LIFT
NORTH WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE LOW, QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN INITIAL WINDOW OF RAIN/THUNDER
POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR THE WARM FRONT,
PARTICULARLY FROM NORTHWEST OH EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE INTO NORTHEAST
OH AND NORTHWEST PA. AFTER A POTENTIAL DRY WINDOW BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT, THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN/THUNDER POTENTIAL ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
SYNOPTICALLY, A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EVIDENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...MAINLY ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THOUGH WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED HAIL RISK
EARLIER IN THE DAY IF ANY STORMS CAN GET GOING NEAR THE WARM FRONT
BEFORE IT LIFTS OUT OF OUR AREA. THE SEVERE THREAT WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN BY
STRONG FRONTAL FORCING, SOME UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE, STRONG SHEAR,
AND LINGERING INSTABILITY INTO THE NIGHT. THE FORCING/SHEAR, ALONG
WITH PRESENCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (EML) AND SEASONABLY HIGH
DEW POINTS (UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S) CERTAINLY CATCH THE EYE...HOWEVER,
FOR OUR SPECIFIC AREA, THERE IS ONCE AGAIN UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THIS SEVERE THREAT. HOW QUICKLY EARLIER RAIN/THUNDER WITH THE WARM
FRONT EXITS WILL HAVE A SAY ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN BUILD INTO
OUR AREA AHEAD OF COLD FRONTAL CONVECTION. WE'LL ALSO BE AT THE
MERCY OF WHEN/WHERE STORMS DEVELOP UPSTREAM OF US WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND HOW ORGANIZED/ROBUST THEY ARE, AS THAT'S WHAT WILL
HEAD INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. OVERALL, THE SPC
OUTLINES LOCATIONS WEST OF ROUGHLY I-77 IN A SEVERE THREAT AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A MYRIAD OF MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE
(BOTH GEFS AND ECMWF EPS BASED), SUGGESTING HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
SEVERE WEATHER (POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT) INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, WITH
PROBABILITIES SPREADING INTO MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA BUT
DIMINISHING TO THE EAST AS THEY DO SO. THE TAKE HOME MESSAGE AT THIS
POINT IS THAT SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT, BUT WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE TO OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST AND A LIKELY
LATER ARRIVAL TIME THAN USUAL ACROSS OUR AREA LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY.
THE FRONT SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND WAIVER
JUST TO OUR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. WAVES MAY TRACK ALONG
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY, ALONG WITH FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, WITH ACCOMPANYING INCREASES IN POPS. WE'LL LIKELY BE
ON THE COLDER SIDE OF THE FRONT FOR THIS PERIOD, LESSENING OR
PRECLUDING ANY SEVERE RISK, THOUGH WE'LL NEED TO MONITOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH THE WEEK FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING ISSUES. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN AVERAGE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE
COOLING TO NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A WARM FRONT HAS SETTLED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA, ALLOWING FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA TO REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS HAS ALLOWED
FOR ALL TERMINALS TO REMAIN VFR, WITH PERIODIC LIGHT SHOWERS
FALLING AT THE FAR WESTERN TERMINALS OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS,
BUT NOT IMPACTING THE FLIGHT CATEGORY. AS THESE SHOWERS FILL IN
LATE THIS EVENING AND GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SPREAD EAST, EXPECT
CEILINGS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO IFR BY SUNDAY MORNING FOR
WESTERN TERMINALS AND LATE MORNING FOR EASTERN TERMINALS. IN
ADDITION, RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO
MVFR, POSSIBLY IFR IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. THESE DIMINISHED
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE A NOTABLE TIME
IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHERE SHOWERS END,
ULTIMATELY IMPROVING VISIBILITIES BUT ALLOWING FOR LOWER
CEILINGS TO PERSIST. NEAR THE TAIL END OF THIS PERIOD, THERE IS
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THAT MAY
IMPACT THE WESTERN TERMINALS BETWEEN 21Z SUNDAY TO 00Z MONDAY.
THESE STORMS WILL BRING LOCALLY HIGHER WIND GUSTS, POTENTIALLY
LARGE HAIL, AND THERE IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR A TORNADO OR TWO.
OPTED TO HANDLE THIS POTENTIAL IN A PROB30 UNTIL THE TIMING IS
BETWEEN DISCERNED IN HI-RES GUIDANCE UPDATES.
IN ADDITION, SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF TONIGHT. BY 12Z SUNDAY, THESE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 12-15 KNOTS, GUSTING UP TO 20-25 KNOTS THROUGH THE
MORNING. BY THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD, SOME GUSTS ACROSS
WESTERN TERMINALS MAY INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS AS A COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THESE GUSTY WINDS ARE THE
RESULT OF A STRONG LLJ OF 40-50 KNOTS PUSHING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY TO RETURN FROM WEST TO EAST IN
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE SUNDAY NIGHT. NON-
VFR MAY LINGER IN PERIODIC RAIN AND/OR LOW CEILINGS ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON WITH NORTH-
NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE EAST END. THIS WIND SHIFT IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE CENTRAL
BASIN THIS EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NORTH INTO SUNDAY AS WINDS TURN
SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE WHOLE LAKE. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10-
20KT RANGE THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH SOME 2-5 FOOTERS IN THE OPEN WATERS
AT TIMES. WINDS SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AND INCREASE TO 15-25KT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES, BUILDING 3
TO 6 FOOTERS IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS
THAT WILL GET PUSHED INTO THE NEARSHORE. WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MORE NORTHERLY MONDAY NIGHT, PERSISTING AT 15-
20KT AT TIMES. WAVES WILL SLOWLY COME DOWN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT,
BUT SOME 4 FOOTERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN AT LEAST THE CENTRAL
BASIN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE EXPECTED WIND DIRECTION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY TUESDAY, LEADING TO LIGHTER WINDS. GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, TURNING MORE
SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY FOR AT LEAST MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS MAY LINGER MONDAY NIGHT IN THE CENTRAL BASIN.
GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MAY BE
ENOUGH TO PROMPT THE NEXT ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...10
NEAR TERM...04/10
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...04
MARINE...SULLIVAN
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