295
FXUS61 KCLE 300744
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
344 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION BY THIS EVENING. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
PULL A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS IT TRACKS
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
THE MAIN WEATHER MESSAGE FOR THIS NEAR TERM FORECAST WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL MOVE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. A SURFACE LOW IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE CORNBELT OF THE MIDWEST THIS MORNING WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT. OUR AREA IS IN A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS
SECTOR AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT. A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN
THE 500 MB FLOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS OHIO THIS MORNING
WITH SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS IN THIS WARM
SECTOR. THIS AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING, WRAPPING
UP BY LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY. WE WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE RAIN
CHANCES BY THE AFTERNOON BUT LIKELY REMAINING OVERCAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
BY THIS EVENING, OUR ATTENTION WILL BE TOWARDS THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST FOR THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS EXPANDED THE ENHANCED THREAT (LEVEL
3/5) INTO MUCH OF OUR NWOH AND CENTRAL OHIO COUNTIES, BASICALLY
A LINE FROM TOLEDO TO MANSFIELD AND SOUTHWARD. THE REST OF THE
AREA REMAINS IN A SLIGHT THREAT (LEVEL 2/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IN IS
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION
DEVELOPING WEST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING INTO NWOH
BY THIS EVENING. THE EXACT TIMING IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN WITH A
DIFFERENCE OF A FEW HOURS AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE. MIXED LAYER
CAPE VALUES WILL APPROACH 1000+ J/KG OVER NWOH BY EARLY EVENING.
BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE STRONG AT 50+ KNOTS. STORM RELATIVE
HELICITY 0-3KM VALUES WILL BE 250+ M2S2 THIS EVENING OVER NWOH.
THE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS INDICATE THAT STRONG DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN POTENTIAL HAZARDS. ALSO, THERE WILL BE
THE RISK FOR A COUPLE QLCS TYPE TORNADOES POSSIBLY AS WELL AS
LARGE HAIL. THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE CLOSER TO
NWOH AND CENTRAL OHIO. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AS THE CONVECTION MOVES INTO NEOH AND NWPA LATER IN THE NIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE ON MONDAY WILL OCCUR DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY DURING
THE DAY INTO THE 40S BY THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME
LINGERING POST FRONTAL SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF DURING THE DAY.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO A BRIEF WINDOW OF DRY WEATHER TUESDAY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY GLIDE
EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRAVERSING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND USHER IN A MOIST AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY DEW POINTS
IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT FOR SHOWER
COVERAGE TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WARM FRONT. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF DRY WINDOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
DRY SLOT ENTERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. THERE REMAINS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, AS
THE THERMODYNAMIC AND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE.
IN ADDITION TO SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM,
THERE REMAINS A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. FORECAST PWAT VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE, WHEN COMPARED TO DTX
AND ILN SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY, WITH WPC CONTINUING TO HIGHLIGHT MOST
OF OUR AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) THEIR DAY 4 EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OUTLOOK (ERO). THE LATEST ERO HAS INTRODUCED A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2/4) FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL SETTLE IN THE LOW 30S WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
LOWS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. VERY WARM
OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S. TUESDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF WEEK WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN TO MID 40S. MOST SITES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WITH UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS THE COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO GLIDE EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS
FRONT LOOKS TO SETTLE AS A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE
ADDITIONAL THREAT FOR RAINFALL, WPC HAS INCLUDED THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) IN THE DAY 5
ERO.
ONE FINAL DAY OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S ON THURSDAY
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT DROPS HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
INTO THE LOW/MID 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL
SETTLE IN THE 40S EACH NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE MAIN MESSAGE FOR AVIATION WEATHER IS CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODIC MVFR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
DUE TO SHOWERS. CEILINGS ARE STARTING OFF MOSTLY IN THE VFR
CATEGORY AS OF 06Z. THERE ARE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING
OVER NORTHWEST OHIO CURRENTLY AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
NEOH AND NWPA LATER THIS MORNING WITH CEILINGS DROPPING TO MVFR
AND PERIODIC DROPS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS.
THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT BY MIDDAY AND THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
BREAK BUT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN AT MVFR. THE NEXT AVIATION
CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION DEVELOP WEST OF THE AREA AND MOVING IN LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HAVE PROB30 GROUPS FROM 00Z TO 06Z FOR
THIS TSRA POTENTIAL MOVING INTO TO NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST OHIO.
GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 12-15 KNOTS, GUSTING UP TO
20-25 KNOTS THROUGH THE MORNING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY TO RETURN FROM WEST TO EAST IN
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
NON- VFR MAY LINGER IN PERIODIC RAIN AND/OR LOW CEILINGS ON
MONDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN BEFORE
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT
SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE INCREASING TO 15-20
KNOTS. BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT, WINDS TURN WESTERLY
BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND NORTHWESTERLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON, WAVE HEIGHTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 3-5 FEET EAST OF THE ISLANDS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY LEADING
TO NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS. AS THE HIGH EXITS TO THE EAST, WINDS
TURN EASTERLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE INCREASING TO 15-25 KNOTS BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. BEHIND
THE WARM FRONT, WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY WHILE REMAINING BETWEEN 15-25
KNOTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
ON MONDAY. THE NEXT ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...77
NEAR TERM...77
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...77
MARINE...13
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page