078
FXUS61 KCLE 301505
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1105 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION BY THIS EVENING. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
PULL A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS IT TRACKS
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
A GOOD SWATH OF RAIN CONTINUES FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-71
THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER EASTERN
IOWA/NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AT 10 AM AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK TO
LOWER MICHIGAN BY THIS EVENING. MOST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
DEPICT A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH, MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
TOWARDS 6-8 PM. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE MID-LEVEL FORCING
PROVIDED BY A 500MB JET STREAK THAT RACES NORTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE NAM HAS OFFERED A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
SOLUTION BUT SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER FROM THE BULK OF THE CAMS.
ONCE ESTABLISHED, ONE OR MORE BROKEN LINES OF STORMS ARE LIKELY
TO MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. WHILE AN EXTENSIVE CLOUD DECK REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN
OHIO, WE DO SEE SOME CLEARING DEVELOPING IN THE WARM SECTOR IN
ILLINOIS WHICH IS ALLOWING FOR RAPID DESTABILIZATION. WHILE MOST
OF THE DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOUDY, SOME DRYING IN THE MID-
LEVELS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
UPSTREAM IN INDIANA AND NW OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
DESTABILIZATION WITH UP TO 1000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW RIGHT AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS A GOOD
BET. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO PROVIDE A GOOD FEED OF MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR RIGHT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO
DESTABILIZE EVEN WITHOUT SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING. AT THIS TIME THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REMAINS ON TRACK AND THE ENHANCED RISK
WAS EXPANDED NORTH TO INCLUDE WESTERN LAKE ERIE. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR UPSTREAM CONDITIONS INCLUDING AN 18Z SPECIAL
SOUNDING OUT OF DTX. STRONG DAMAGING WINDS REMAINS THE PRIMARY
THREAT GIVEN A VERY STRONG WIND FIELD AND 35-45 KNOTS OF 0-6KM
SHEER. CONVECTION WILL NOT NEED TO BE OVERLY ROBUST TO BRING
STRONG WINDS UP TO 70 MPH DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WE WILL ALSO BE
WATCHING FOR ROTATION, ESPECIALLY WITH BACKED FLOW AHEAD OF THE
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. THERE IS GOOD VEERING OF THE FLOW WITH
HEIGHT, ESPECIALLY EARLY ON IN THE EVENT MAKING ROTATION A
CONCERN. THE WIND THREAT WILL REMAIN THE GREATEST THREAT MOVING
EAST OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE MAIN WEATHER MESSAGE FOR THIS NEAR
TERM FORECAST WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY. A SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER THE CORNBELT OF
THE MIDWEST THIS MORNING WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT. OUR AREA IS
IN A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS SECTOR AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT. A
WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE 500 MB FLOW IS CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS OHIO THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN SHOWERS IN THIS WARM SECTOR. THIS AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING, WRAPPING UP BY LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY. WE
WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE RAIN CHANCES BY THE AFTERNOON BUT
LIKELY REMAINING OVERCAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON.
BY THIS EVENING, OUR ATTENTION WILL BE TOWARDS THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST FOR THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS EXPANDED THE ENHANCED THREAT (LEVEL
3/5) INTO MUCH OF OUR NWOH AND CENTRAL OHIO COUNTIES, BASICALLY
A LINE FROM TOLEDO TO MANSFIELD AND SOUTHWARD. THE REST OF THE
AREA REMAINS IN A SLIGHT THREAT (LEVEL 2/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IN IS
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION
DEVELOPING WEST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING INTO NWOH
BY THIS EVENING. THE EXACT TIMING IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN WITH A
DIFFERENCE OF A FEW HOURS AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE. MIXED LAYER
CAPE VALUES WILL APPROACH 1000+ J/KG OVER NWOH BY EARLY EVENING.
BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE STRONG AT 50+ KNOTS. STORM RELATIVE
HELICITY 0-3KM VALUES WILL BE 250+ M2S2 THIS EVENING OVER NWOH.
THE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS INDICATE THAT STRONG DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN POTENTIAL HAZARDS. ALSO, THERE WILL BE
THE RISK FOR A COUPLE QLCS TYPE TORNADOES AS WELL AS LARGE
HAIL. THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE CLOSER TO NWOH
AND CENTRAL OHIO. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS
THE CONVECTION MOVES INTO NEOH AND NWPA LATER IN THE NIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE ON MONDAY WILL OCCUR DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY DURING
THE DAY INTO THE 40S BY THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME
LINGERING POST FRONTAL SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF DURING THE DAY.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO A BRIEF WINDOW OF DRY WEATHER TUESDAY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY GLIDE
EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRAVERSING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND USHER IN A MOIST AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY DEW POINTS
IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT FOR SHOWER
COVERAGE TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WARM FRONT. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF DRY WINDOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
DRY SLOT ENTERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. THERE REMAINS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, AS
THE THERMODYNAMIC AND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE.
IN ADDITION TO SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM,
THERE REMAINS A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. FORECAST PWAT VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE, WHEN COMPARED TO DTX
AND ILN SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY, WITH WPC CONTINUING TO HIGHLIGHT MOST
OF OUR AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) THEIR DAY 4 EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OUTLOOK (ERO). THE LATEST ERO HAS INTRODUCED A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2/4) FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL SETTLE IN THE LOW 30S WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
LOWS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. VERY WARM
OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S. TUESDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF WEEK WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN TO MID 40S. MOST SITES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WITH UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS THE COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO GLIDE EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS
FRONT LOOKS TO SETTLE AS A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE
ADDITIONAL THREAT FOR RAINFALL, WPC HAS INCLUDED THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) IN THE DAY 5
ERO.
ONE FINAL DAY OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S ON THURSDAY
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT DROPS HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
INTO THE LOW/MID 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL
SETTLE IN THE 40S EACH NIGHT.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE MAIN MESSAGE FOR AVIATION WEATHER IS CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS LATER THIS MORNING. CEILINGS ARE STARTING
OFF MOSTLY IN THE VFR. THERE ARE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
SPREADING OVER AREA THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT
BY MIDDAY AND THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON. THE NEXT AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION DEVELOPING WEST OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE IN LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. HAVE PROB30 GROUPS FROM 00Z TO 06Z FOR THIS TSRA
POTENTIAL MOVING INTO TO NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST OHIO. GENERALLY
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 12-15 KNOTS, GUSTING UP TO
20-25 KNOTS THROUGH THE MORNING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
OUTLOOK...NON- VFR MAY LINGER IN PERIODIC RAIN AND/OR LOW
CEILINGS ON MONDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN BEFORE
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT
SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE INCREASING TO 15-20
KNOTS. BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT, WINDS TURN WESTERLY
BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND NORTHWESTERLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON, WAVE HEIGHTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 3-5 FEET EAST OF THE ISLANDS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY LEADING
TO NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS. AS THE HIGH EXITS TO THE EAST, WINDS
TURN EASTERLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE INCREASING TO 15-25 KNOTS BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. BEHIND
THE WARM FRONT, WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY WHILE REMAINING BETWEEN 15-25
KNOTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
ON MONDAY. THE NEXT ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...77
NEAR TERM...10/77
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...77
MARINE...13
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