129
FXUS61 KCLE 301831
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
231 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION BY THIS EVENING. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
PULL A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS IT TRACKS
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
FIRST ROUND OF RAIN HAS JUST ABOUT PUSHED INTO PENNSYLVANIA
WHILE WE ARE WATCHING CONVECTION UPSTREAM IN ILLINOIS. SKIES
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PENNSYLVANIA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON BUT A SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF CLEARING HAS DEVELOPED
IN WESTERN INDIANA AND SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES 500-1000 J/KG
OF ML CAPE HAS DEVELOPED. A TORNADO WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED
UPSTREAM IN ILLINOIS AND CENTRAL INDIANA. TEMPERATURES IN
INDIANA HAVE PUSHED INTO THE LOW 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
60S. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH, ADVECTING IN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. PARTIAL CLEARING IS
STILL EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED, POSSIBLY ONLY AN HOUR OR SO BEFORE
STORMS ARRIVE, BUT SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION TO BE SURFACE
BASED.
MOST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DEPICT A LINE OR MULTIPLE LINES OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH, MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARDS 6-8 PM. THIS
LINES UP WELL WITH THE MID-LEVEL FORCING PROVIDED BY A 500MB JET
STREAK THAT RACES NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. ONCE
ESTABLISHED, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AT THIS TIME THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REMAINS ON TRACK AND THE ENHANCED RISK WAS
EXPANDED NORTH TO INCLUDE WESTERN LAKE ERIE. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS FAIRLY HIGH PROBABILITIES OF DAMAGING
WINDS AT 45 PERCENT ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR UPSTREAM CONDITIONS INCLUDING AN 18Z SPECIAL SOUNDING
OUT OF DTX. STRONG DAMAGING WINDS REMAINS THE PRIMARY THREAT
GIVEN A VERY STRONG WIND FIELD AND 35-45 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEER.
CONVECTION WILL NOT NEED TO BE OVERLY ROBUST TO BRING STRONG
WINDS UP TO 70 MPH DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WE WILL ALSO BE WATCHING
FOR ROTATION, ESPECIALLY WITH BACKED FLOW AHEAD OF THE PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH. THERE IS GOOD VEERING OF THE FLOW WITH HEIGHT,
ESPECIALLY EARLY ON IN THE EVENT MAKING ROTATION A CONCERN. THE
WIND THREAT WILL REMAIN THE GREATEST THREAT MOVING EAST
OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE MAIN WEATHER MESSAGE FOR THIS NEAR
TERM FORECAST WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY. A SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER THE CORNBELT OF
THE MIDWEST THIS MORNING WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT. OUR AREA IS
IN A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS SECTOR AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT. A
WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE 500 MB FLOW IS CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS OHIO THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN SHOWERS IN THIS WARM SECTOR. THIS AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING, WRAPPING UP BY LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY. WE
WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE RAIN CHANCES BY THE AFTERNOON BUT
LIKELY REMAINING OVERCAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON.
BY THIS EVENING, OUR ATTENTION WILL BE TOWARDS THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST FOR THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS EXPANDED THE ENHANCED THREAT (LEVEL
3/5) INTO MUCH OF OUR NWOH AND CENTRAL OHIO COUNTIES, BASICALLY
A LINE FROM TOLEDO TO MANSFIELD AND SOUTHWARD. THE REST OF THE
AREA REMAINS IN A SLIGHT THREAT (LEVEL 2/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IN IS
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION
DEVELOPING WEST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING INTO NWOH
BY THIS EVENING. THE EXACT TIMING IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN WITH A
DIFFERENCE OF A FEW HOURS AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE. MIXED LAYER
CAPE VALUES WILL APPROACH 1000+ J/KG OVER NWOH BY EARLY EVENING.
BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE STRONG AT 50+ KNOTS. STORM RELATIVE
HELICITY 0-3KM VALUES WILL BE 250+ M2S2 THIS EVENING OVER NWOH.
THE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS INDICATE THAT STRONG DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN POTENTIAL HAZARDS. ALSO, THERE WILL BE
THE RISK FOR A COUPLE QLCS TYPE TORNADOES AS WELL AS LARGE
HAIL. THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE CLOSER TO NWOH
AND CENTRAL OHIO. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS
THE CONVECTION MOVES INTO NEOH AND NWPA LATER IN THE NIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE ON MONDAY WILL OCCUR DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY DURING
THE DAY INTO THE 40S BY THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME
LINGERING POST FRONTAL SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF DURING THE DAY.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO A BRIEF WINDOW OF DRY WEATHER TUESDAY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY GLIDE
EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRAVERSING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND USHER IN A MOIST AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY DEW POINTS
IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT FOR SHOWER
COVERAGE TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WARM FRONT. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF DRY WINDOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
DRY SLOT ENTERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. THERE REMAINS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, AS
THE THERMODYNAMIC AND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE.
IN ADDITION TO SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM,
THERE REMAINS A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. FORECAST PWAT VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE, WHEN COMPARED TO DTX
AND ILN SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY, WITH WPC CONTINUING TO HIGHLIGHT MOST
OF OUR AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) THEIR DAY 4 EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OUTLOOK (ERO). THE LATEST ERO HAS INTRODUCED A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2/4) FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL SETTLE IN THE LOW 30S WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
LOWS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. VERY WARM
OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S. TUESDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF WEEK WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN TO MID 40S. MOST SITES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WITH UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS THE COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO GLIDE EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS
FRONT LOOKS TO SETTLE AS A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE
ADDITIONAL THREAT FOR RAINFALL, WPC HAS INCLUDED THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) IN THE DAY 5
ERO.
ONE FINAL DAY OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S ON THURSDAY
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT DROPS HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
INTO THE LOW/MID 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL
SETTLE IN THE 40S EACH NIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
RAIN IS MOVING EAST OUT OF THE AREA SETTING THE STAGE FOR
A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. A MIX OF MVFR WITH SOME IFR CLOUDS REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO MVFR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, POTENTIALLY SCATTERING OUT FOR A BRIEF WINDOW(MAYBE
AN HOUR) RIGHT BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE. THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE,
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST OHIO. HAVE TRIED TO TIME THUNDERSTORMS
INTO TOL/FDY BETWEEN 22-00Z, MFD AND CLE BETWEEN 00-03Z, AND
CAK AND YNG BETWEEN 01-04Z. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING STRONG WINDS, POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF 50
KNOTS AT TOL AND FDY. STORMS MAY START TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE
EAST AFTER DARK BUT SOME POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR GUSTS OF 40-50
KNOTS AT CLE/MFD/CAK WITH DECREASING PROBABILITIES FARTHER EAST.
STRONG WINDS AND BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY IN MODERATE
TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 02-10Z WITH MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS AHEAD
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO LAG BEHIND THE THUNDERSTORMS, CROSSING THE AREA
BETWEEN 06-12Z AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO VEER AROUND TO MORE WESTERLY ON MONDAY MORNING WHILE
STILL GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR MAY LINGER IN PERIODIC RAIN AND/OR LOW
CEILINGS ON MONDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN BEFORE
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT
SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE INCREASING TO 15-20
KNOTS. BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT, WINDS TURN WESTERLY
BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND NORTHWESTERLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON, WAVE HEIGHTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 3-5 FEET EAST OF THE ISLANDS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY LEADING
TO NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS. AS THE HIGH EXITS TO THE EAST, WINDS
TURN EASTERLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE INCREASING TO 15-25 KNOTS BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. BEHIND
THE WARM FRONT, WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY WHILE REMAINING BETWEEN 15-25
KNOTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
ON MONDAY. THE NEXT ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...77
NEAR TERM...10/77
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...10
MARINE...13
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