282
FXUS61 KCLE 302131
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
531 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS FROM NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TO QUEBEC BY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY, LIFTING A WARM FRONT NORTH, FOLLOWED BY
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPING EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
530 PM UPDATE...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ERIE COUNTY
SOUTHWEST TO WYANDOT COUNTY AND AREAS WEST UNTIL 10 PM TONIGHT.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS HAVE
BEEN REPORTED UPSTREAM OF THE AREA ALONG AN ORGANIZED LINE OF
CONVECTION. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS, CONTINUING TO POSE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT
WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 70+ MPH POSSIBLE. SMALL HAIL AND AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. NOW IS THE TIME TO PREPARE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER IF YOU ARE IN THE HIGHLIGHT COUNTIES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AT 3 PM WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH NEAR THE
ILLINOIS/INDIANA STATE LINE AND THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT JUST PUSHING
INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHERN
OHIO AND NW PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT A SUBSTANTIAL AREA
OF CLEARING HAS DEVELOPED IN INDIANA AND SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES
500-1000 J/KG OF ML CAPE. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN PLACE UP TO THE
INDIANA/OHIO STATE LINE AND WE ARE MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR
WATCHES TO BE EXPANDED INTO OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES IN NORTHWEST OHIO ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH 70
DEGREES EARLY THIS EVENING WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH, ADVECTING IN
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING. PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED, POSSIBLY
ONLY AN HOUR OR SO BEFORE STORMS ARRIVE, BUT SUFFICIENT FOR
CONVECTION TO BE SURFACE BASED. INSTABILITY WILL OF COURSE WAIN
FARTHER TO THE EAST, BUT COULD CERTAINLY MAINTAIN AT LEAST A MINIMAL
AMOUNT OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY EAST TO THE I-75 CORRIDOR IF NOT
ALL THE WAY THROUGH OHIO.
A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING INTO WESTERN INDIANA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE EVENING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AND WESTERN OHIO. SOME
ACCELERATION OF THE LINE IS POSSIBLE AS THE TROUGH ALOFT LIFTS
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A 500MB JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO AND LOWER MICHIGAN. IN ADDITION THE LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELD IS ALSO STRONG WITH 45-50 KNOTS OF WIND FOCUSED ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO AT 00Z. BECAUSE OF THIS, DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE
PRIMARY THREAT THIS EVENING AND THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
HIGHLIGHTED THE AREA WITH A 45 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS
WITHIN 25 MILES OF A POINT ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. GIVEN THE STRONG
WIND FIELD, IT WILL NOT TAKE VERY MUCH TO BRING DAMAGING WINDS DOWN
TO THE SURFACE WITH WIND SPEEDS UP TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE. WE WILL ALSO
BE WATCHING FOR ROTATION, ESPECIALLY WITH BACKING OF THE FLOW AHEAD
OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. THIS ALONG WITH VEERING OF THE FLOW WITH
HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT ROTATION AND A TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE WHERE
THERE ARE BREAKS IN THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 35-50 KNOTS WHEN THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES IN NORTHWEST OHIO BETWEEN 6-8 PM THEN
PROGRESSES EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. A 0-1 KM HELICITY MAXIMUM
JUST CLIPS THE TOLEDO WITH HIGHER VALUES FOCUSED INTO SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN, LIKELY WITH ADDITIONAL BACKING OF THE FLOW NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES. UNCERTAINTY DOES REMAIN WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
CONVECTION TONIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE UPSTREAM LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY MOVES INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AND JUST CLIPS
NORTHWEST OHIO. IF THE LINE BREAKS, WE ARE STILL LIKELY TO SEE
THUNDERSTORMS FILL BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT IT MAY NOT
ARRIVE AS ONE SOLID ARCH/LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THERE HAS ALSO
BEEN SOME DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE BACK ACROSS INDIANA
SO LEADING ACTIVITY MAY PRECEDE OR INTERFERE WITH THE MAIN LINE
GIVEN THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
FOLLOWING THE MAIN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING, A FEW LIGHT
SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR EARLY ON MONDAY WITH
FALLING TEMPERATURES INTO THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL BE INTO THE 40S BY MID AFTERNOON. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH BRISK CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. PLENTY OF STRATUS WILL BE STREAMING SOUTH OF THE LAKE EARLY
TUESDAY, THOUGH WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE LATE TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY WILL BE A CHILLY START TO
APRIL, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S...PERHAPS 50 TOWARDS FINDLAY,
MARION AND MT VERNON. CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TOWARDS
THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MAINLY RANGE FROM THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S, A BIT COLDER IN FAR NORTHEAST OH/NORTHWEST PA.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE A POTENT UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A BIT OF THUNDER. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THAT. AFTER A CHILLY START WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES
WILL SURGE BEHIND THE WARM FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WITH LATE-DAY HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S WEST OF I-
77...TO THE UPPER 60S IN FAR NORTHEAST OH AND THE LOW TO MID 60S
INTO NORTHWEST PA. THE HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE WARM
FRONT AND AN ASSOCIATED DRY SLOT BEHIND HIT, PARTICULARLY FARTHER
EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM
BENEATH A BRISK LOW-LEVEL JET, WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH LIKELY AT
TIMES...PERHAPS UPWARDS OF 40 MPH LATE WEDNESDAY IN NORTHWEST OH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY IN THE LOW-MID 60S MOST OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT COULD BEGIN FALLING INTO THE 50S LATE.
IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS
ALREADY HIGHLIGHTED MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN A SEVERE THREAT
AREA (SLIGHT RISK EQUIVALENT PROBABILITIES) FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, SAVE OUR EASTERN FRINGES. THIS INCREASES TO AN ELEVATED
THREAT (ENHANCED RISK EQUIVALENT PROBABILITIES) ACROSS NORTHWEST OH.
THE COMBINATION OF SEASONABLY HIGH DEW POINTS (UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S) ADVECTING IN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT BENEATH AN ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER/EML (700-500MB LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.5C/KM) LEADS TO WHAT
MAY BE A ROBUST THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WITH
PLENTIFUL LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION
AND ROTATING UPDRAFTS. WHILE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL CAN'T BE RULED OUT
WITH ANY ELEVATED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT EARLIER
ON WEDNESDAY THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE WITH CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND MOVES EAST INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. IN THEORY, ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF AN EML AND STRONG SHEAR. HOWEVER,
DESPITE A PRETTY AGGRESSIVE DAY 4 SPC OUTLOOK AND SOME MACHINE
LEARNING GUIDANCE (PARTICULARLY THE GEFS-BASED CSU MLP GUIDANCE)
GOING NUTS REGARDING THIS SEVERE POTENTIAL THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
LOCALLY. NAMELY, HOW QUICKLY SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY CAN ADVECT IN
BEHIND WARM FRONTAL RAIN ON WEDNESDAY IS UNCERTAIN, WITH THE LATER-
THAN-USUAL TIMING ALSO ADDING UNCERTAINTY. FINALLY, CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION UPSTREAM WILL BE QUITE IMPORTANT TO WHAT
MOVES INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. SO, THE TAKE-HOME
MESSAGE REMAINS THAT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT THAT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC) HAS ALSO HIGHLIGHTED MUCH OF
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OH IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL, WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR ESSENTIALLY THE REST OF NORTHERN
OH. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT'S PROGRESS WILL SLOW
ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION, INCREASING FORCING. THE SAGGING FRONT
WILL ALSO BECOME FAIRLY PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL OCCUR AS A VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET (POTENTIALLY 60-70KT
AT 850MB) ADVECTS IN UNSEASONABLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF
AT LEAST 1.30-1.60", WHICH IS NEAR OR ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXES FOR
THE BEGINNING OF APRIL PER WILMINGTON, OH SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY.
INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR TRAINING CONVECTION WITH IMPRESSIVE
RAIN RATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH RAIN/STORMS IN THE NEAR TERM
HELPING SATURATE THINGS A BIT. FEEL THE WPC SLIGHT RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING FOR ABOUT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA IS REASONABLE, AS THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION AND THE TIMING OF THE FRONT STILL. WILL ALSO
NEED TO WATCH FOR RIVER RISES WITH/FOLLOWING THIS ROUND OF RAIN.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS A FRONT
WAIVERS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH VARIOUS WAVES TRACKING ALONG
IT...LIKELY THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT, FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY, AND
PERHAPS ONE MORE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE DEEPER TROUGHING
TRIES PUSHING THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTHEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EACH
FRONTAL WAVE WILL BRING AN ACCOMPANYING INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF MEASURABLE RAIN WITH
EACH WAVE IS UNCERTAIN, LEADING TO THE HIGHEST POPS SOUTH AND
RELATIVELY LOWER POPS FARTHER NORTH. THE AXIS OF QPF THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL...HIGHEST
CONCERN TO OUR SOUTH, THOUGH WORTH MONITORING TRENDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ON THE WARMER SIDE OF AVERAGE FOR THURSDAY, COOLING TO
THE COOLER SIDE OF AVERAGE FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
RAIN IS MOVING EAST OUT OF THE AREA SETTING THE STAGE FOR
A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. A MIX OF MVFR WITH SOME IFR CLOUDS REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO MVFR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, POTENTIALLY SCATTERING OUT FOR A BRIEF WINDOW(MAYBE
AN HOUR) RIGHT BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE. THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE,
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST OHIO. HAVE TRIED TO TIME THUNDERSTORMS
INTO TOL/FDY BETWEEN 22-00Z, MFD AND CLE BETWEEN 00-03Z, AND
CAK AND YNG BETWEEN 01-04Z. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING STRONG WINDS, POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF 50
KNOTS AT TOL AND FDY. STORMS MAY START TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE
EAST AFTER DARK BUT SOME POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR GUSTS OF 40-50
KNOTS AT CLE/MFD/CAK WITH DECREASING PROBABILITIES FARTHER EAST.
STRONG WINDS AND BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY IN MODERATE
TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 02-10Z WITH MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS AHEAD
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO LAG BEHIND THE THUNDERSTORMS, CROSSING THE AREA
BETWEEN 06-12Z AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO VEER AROUND TO MORE WESTERLY ON MONDAY MORNING WHILE
STILL GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR MAY LINGER IN PERIODIC RAIN AND/OR LOW
CEILINGS ON MONDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE. SOUTH WINDS 10-
20 KNOTS SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST AT 15-20 KNOTS (BRIEFLY UP TO
25 KNOTS) AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING, PROMPTING A ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM
VERMILION, OH POINTS EAST. THESE ADVISORIES CURRENTLY EXPIRE AT 4
PM MONDAY, THOUGH NORTHERLY WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED AT AROUND 15 KNOTS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY MAINTAIN A FEW 4 FOOTERS IN THE
CENTRAL BASIN. WILL LET A LATER SHIFT DECIDE IF A PORTION OF THE
ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE EXTENDED INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25KT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
SHIFTING SOUTHWEST INTO THURSDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
LAKE. ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING
ON WEDNESDAY FOR THE STRONG/GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
LEZ145>147.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ148-
149.
SYNOPSIS...10
NEAR TERM...04/10
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...10
MARINE...SULLIVAN
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