953
FXUS61 KCLE 311827
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
227 PM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT TO THE EAST THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TO QUEBEC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE UPPER MIDWEST MID-WEEK
LIFTING A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT EAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE COLD FRONT IS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED OR REMAINED STEADY IN THE 40S.
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO RIPPLE THROUGH NORTHEAST OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA, BUT THE OVERALL CHANCES OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS POINT FORWARD ARE LOW.
OVERCAST CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE
NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING WITH UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. DID DIG
INTO ANY SNOW CHANCES FOR TONIGHT WITH COLD FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE
AND INTO NE OH/NW PA. OVERALL, THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION WILL MAKE SNOW GROWTH DIFFICULT IN THE ATMOSPHERE.
HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME MOISTURE WITH THE CLOUD DECK AROUND 2000
FT, SO A STRAY FLAKE TONIGHT COULD HAPPEN, BUT ANY MEASURABLE
SNOW CHANCES SEEM NIL AT THIS TIME AND HAVE NO MENTIONABLE POPS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
DRYING CONDITIONS TO THE REGION AND EXPECT THE OVERCAST
CONDITIONS TO SCOUR OUT BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ON THE COLD SIDE OF NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S FOR TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS SOUTHERN QUEBEC TUESDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MOST OF
THE OVERNIGHT. OUR WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE EAST BY TUESDAY EVENING
AND MAY INCREASE 10 TO 20 MPH DUE TO A PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND
MIDWEST. TEMPERATURE WILL BE COOLEST TUESDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY A
SLOW CLIMB DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING,
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE
TO A STRONG LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
DURING THE DAY. THE 850MB LEVEL FLOW WILL BE CRANKING WEDNESDAY
MORNING UP TO 65+ KNOTS WHICH WILL QUICKLY ADVECT IN WARMTH AND
MOISTURE WITH THE WARM FRONT. MORNING AND MIDDAY RAIN SHOWERS WILL
BE LIKELY WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH. A COUPLE ISOLATED,
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE WARM FRONT.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES BETWEEN 200 AND 400 J/KG OF MUCAPE MAY
DEVELOP AND HELP IN THE DEVELOP OF ISOLATED CONVECTION. THAT INITIAL
ROUND OF RAIN WILL MOVE OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON BUT
STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
REACH THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
THE SPRING-LIKE WARMTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE ENERGY FOR
OUR NEXT ROUND OF POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND KNOCKING ON OUR NWOH AREA
WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW THAT THIS COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
ACROSS NWOH. SPC HAS MOST OF NWOH IN AN ENHANCED RISK WITH A LEVEL 3
OUT OF 5 FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE REST OF THE AREA IS IN A SLIGHT
RISK OR LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5 THREAT FOR THE SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE VERY STRONG
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 60 TO 80 KNOTS AND HODOGRAPHS LOOK ADEQUATE FOR
ROTATING UPDRAFTS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT WILL BE THE SEVERE HAZARDS WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO NEOH AND NWPA LATER
IN THE NIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS AND LESS CAPE FURTHER
EASTWARD. DUE TO THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWING DOWN AS IT TRACKS
THROUGH, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THE AVERAGE
GUIDANCE FOR QPF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
INDICATES RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS MAY BE OVER NWOH INTO
CENTRAL OHIO WITH THIS PARTICULAR ROUND.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT
NEAR CENTRAL OHIO ON THURSDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS CLOSER TO CENTRAL OHIO. THE STALLED OUT FRONT BASICALLY
BECOMES PARALLEL WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW THURSDAY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE ALONG THAT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND HELP DEVELOP MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL
CONVECTION WITH A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. THE GREATER THREAT MAY BE
SOUTH OF OUR CWA IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OHIO BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
MINDFUL OF.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
WE WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS ON FRIDAY NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONT THAT WILL BE
LOCATED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CLOSER TO THE
LAKE, TEMPS WILL BE STUCK IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. MILDER TEMPS WILL
BE FURTHER SOUTH INTO OUR CENTRAL OHIO AREA WITH LOWER 60S FOR
FRIDAY'S HIGH. THE STALLED FRONT WILL HANG OUT NEARBY OR SOUTH OF
OUR AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAINFALL
POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS MAY ADD UP FROM THE MID WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND TO CAUSE SOME FLOODING AND HYDRO CONCERNS ON OUR LOCAL
RIVERS. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE IN A BIG WAY BY NEXT WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A VERY LARGE AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DIG FROM THE HUDSON BAY REGION INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WE WILL SEE A BIG COOL DOWN AS THIS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DROPS IN RIGHT OVER OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER
WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MVFR, OVERCAST CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AIRSPACE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY STATE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL START WEST TO NORTHWEST AND VEER
THROUGH THE PERIOD TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AND WITH ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH. THERE
COULD BE SOME INTERMITTENT GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH SOME BETTER MIXING RIGHT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCING FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION AND SCOUR OUT THE MVFR CEILINGS AND THE
TREND WILL BE TO VFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR COULD EXIT
KTOL OVERNIGHT, GIVEN FAVORABLE, DRY FLOW ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR EXPECTED IN MULTIPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
POST FRONTAL WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY THIS EVENING. A
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEARSHORE WATERS THIS MORNING AND ENDING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL
KEEP NORTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE EAST BY TUESDAY EVENING AND INCREASE 15 T0
TO 20 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD FOLLOWED BY GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS LAKE
ERIE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH A SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE VERY POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY EVENING, ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE OR NORTHERLY 5 TO 10
KNOTS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LEZ145>149.
SYNOPSIS...13
NEAR TERM...SEFCOVIC
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...77
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