838
FXUS61 KCLE 010545
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
145 AM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES
ON TUESDAY NIGHT, EXTENDING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST GREAT LAKES
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXTEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
930 PM UPDATE...
THERE WERE NO CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE AS THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A QUIET NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE AREA.
630 PM UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WITH TEMPERATURES LINGERING IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S CONTINUES TO PERSIST THIS EVENING. THERE WERE NO
CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE AS THE ORIGINAL FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT IS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED OR REMAINED STEADY IN THE 40S.
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO RIPPLE THROUGH NORTHEAST OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA, BUT THE OVERALL CHANCES OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS POINT FORWARD ARE LOW.
OVERCAST CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE
NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING WITH UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. DID DIG
INTO ANY SNOW CHANCES FOR TONIGHT WITH COLD FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE
AND INTO NE OH/NW PA. OVERALL, THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION WILL MAKE SNOW GROWTH DIFFICULT IN THE ATMOSPHERE.
HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME MOISTURE WITH THE CLOUD DECK AROUND 2000
FT, SO A STRAY FLAKE TONIGHT COULD HAPPEN, BUT ANY MEASURABLE
SNOW CHANCES SEEM NIL AT THIS TIME AND HAVE NO MENTIONABLE POPS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
DRYING CONDITIONS TO THE REGION AND EXPECT THE OVERCAST
CONDITIONS TO SCOUR OUT BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ON THE COLD SIDE OF NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S FOR TUESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND BACKING FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMER AIR TO RETURN, AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT LATER IN THE PROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER RIDGE, BELIEVE THAT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD OFF AND STAY
DRY WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ENTERING DURING THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIOD BELOW.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
AND FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT,
PARTICULARLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-77 CORRIDOR.
ALOFT, A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN PRESENT OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE.
AT THE SURFACE, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD RAIN ALONG THE FRONT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONVECTION. IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE, WITH 60-DEW POINTS ARRIVING ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH TOWARDS THE WEST LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, QUICKLY BECOMING INTO A LINE OF STORMS AS BULK
SHEAR VECTORS PARALLEL THE LINE ORIENTATION.
THE WIND FIELD WITH THIS SYSTEM IS PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE, WITH 700
MB WINDS REACHING 60 TO 65 KNOTS OF SW FLOW WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP
TO 70 MPH APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. HODOGRAPHS IN THE LOWEST
3KM WOULD ALSO FAVOR A FEW EMBEDDED TORNADIC SPIN-UPS ALONG THE
LINE, ALBEIT WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE AMOUNT
OF SURFACE AND MIXED-LAYER INSTABILITY PRESENT. THE LARGE HAIL
THREAT, ALTHOUGH NON-ZERO, APPEARS TO BE THE LEAST WORRISOME, GIVEN
THE ANTICIPATED STORM MODE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITHIN THE HAIL
GROWTH ZONE.
THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH THIS PACKAGE,
WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, PARTICULARLY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE I-77 CORRIDOR. LONG, SKINNY CAPE PROFILES COMBINED WITH
A STRONG SW LLJ MAY ALLOW FOR SLOW-PROPAGATING STORMS AND EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PROCESSES. ENSEMBLES FROM THE GEFS AND ENS BOTH SHOW A
HIGHLY-ANOMALOUS PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AS OF NOW, THE FORECAST PACKAGE GENERALLY
CALLS FOR A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN, BUT A MORE NARROW
CORRIDOR OF 3 INCHES COULD DEVELOP WHERE RAIN PERSISTS.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD EXIT EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON, WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTH AND BECOMING A STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED ROUGHLY ACROSS THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ALOFT, THE
EASTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE, WITH
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO RIDGE ALONG AND WESTERN EDGE OF THE
RIDGE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF OUR AREA SHOULD
LARGELY BE CLEAR OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL RETURN, PARTICULARLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE US-30 CORRIDOR, AS PRECIPITATION OVERRUNS THE
STATIONARY FRONT TOWARDS THE SOUTH. LIKELY LOOKING AT ANOTHER 1 TO
PERHAPS 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN IN THIS AREA.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL PERSIST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS ALOFT, AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL LARGELY REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS INTO SUNDAY. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE DEVELOPING RIVER FLOOD
THREAT ACROSS THE REGION, AS RAINFALL TOTALS FROM WEDNEDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE ECLIPSING 3 INCHES IN SOME RIVER
BASINS. A FINAL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THE CURRENT NAEFS RIVER ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS INDICATE A LARGE PORTION OF RIVER FORECAST POINTS
GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-77 CORRIDOR REACHING AT LEAST
MINOR FLOOD STAGE, WITH MEDIUM (50%) PROBABILITIES OF REACHING
MODERATE FLOODING STAGE AT MANY LOCATIONS. AT THIS TIME, THE
PROBABILITIES FOR REACHING MAJOR FLOOD STAGE IS LOW, GENERALLY 20%
OR LESS.
THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, USHERING IN A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN CONUS. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE BEHIND A COLD
FRONT LATE SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE MID-40S ON
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING INTO THE 20S ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH EVEN SOME SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN AT
TIMES.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MVFR CEILINGS GENERALLY 2-3 KFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST TAF
SITES FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR CEILINGS
WILL LIKELY SCATTER OUT ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS WITHIN THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN TERMINALS BETWEEN 15-17Z LATE THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. VFR AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTHERLY WINDS 5-10 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT NORTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EASTERLY BY THIS EVENING.
NEAR THE END OF THE TAF WINDOW, EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
8-12 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR EXPECTED IN MULTIPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
WINDS AND WAVES CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH LARGELY
QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY, SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS LAKE
ERIE, 15 TO 25 KNOTS, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WEDNEDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, 20 TO 25 KNOTS. WILL LIKELY NEED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE ELEVATED WINDS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER
THURSDAY MORNING, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE LAKE,
WITH GENERALLY WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS FAVORED TO
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SEFCOVIC
NEAR TERM...04/SEFCOVIC
SHORT TERM...KAHN
LONG TERM...KAHN
AVIATION...13
MARINE...KAHN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page