534
FXUS61 KCLE 011703
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
103 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT EAST DURING THE DAY TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
CHILLY BUT QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NEAR TERM FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVERHEAD FROM THE NORTH ALLOWING FOR OVERCAST CONDITIONS TO
GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE AS THEY RISE INTO THE MID
40S WITH UPPER 30S EXPECTED ALONG THE LAKESHORE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GLIDE TO THE EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ENTERING FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF OUR NEXT IMPACTFUL
SYSTEM. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL SETTLE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH
LOW 30S ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE LOW WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. MUCH WARMER BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S FOR MOST. HIGHS WILL SETTLE IN THE UPPER 50S IN
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.
AN IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS A STRONG
LLJ, 50-60 KNOTS, MOVES OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY
TO SOUTHERLY WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. CURRENTLY HAVE
SURFACE SYNOPTIC WINDS 20-25+ MPH WITH GUSTS 40+ MPH ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HIGHEST WINDS AND GUSTS
WILL BE ACROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND ALONG THE LAKESHORE IN ERIE
COUNTY, PA DUE TO THE FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION FOR DOWNSLOPING.
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM
FRONT WILL GLIDE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HI-RES GUIDANCE IS CONTINUING TO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THESE SHOWERS TO FORM INTO A CONVECTIVE LINE AS
THEY MOVE TOWARDS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IF STORMS CAN TAP INTO A FEW HUNDRED JOULES
OF MUCAPE. HOWEVER, THE BETTER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REMAINS
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. MORE ON THAT
BELOW.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME VERY ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED FOR THE
LATER HALF OF THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. THERE
WILL BE A RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT WILL INCREASE OUR CONCERNS FOR FLOODING. THE
LATEST 00Z FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR AN ATMOSPHERIC SETUP THAT WILL LIKELY FAVOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND MAY CAUSE A FLASH FLOOD RISK AND THE WATER LEVELS
ON MOST OF OUR LEVEL RIVERS TO RISE INTO FLOOD AS WELL.
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING, OUR ATTENTION WILL BE WATCHING TO THE
WEST OF OUR AREA IN REGARDS TO THE SEVERE STORMS THAT ARE EXPECTED
TO INITIALLY DEVELOP. THE HIGH RES MODELS HAS SHOWN A SLIGHT TREND TO
SLOW DOWN THE TIMING OF THIS STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WHEN IT
STARTS TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OHIO. THE TIMING INTO NWOH STILL HAS
SOME UNCERTAINTY BUT IT APPEARS IT MAY BE LATER INTO THE LATE
EVENING CLOSER TOWARDS 04Z TO 06Z WITH THE LINE OF SEVERE STORMS
IMPACTING NWOH. THIS AREA ALSO HAS THE HIGHER SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL GIVEN THE BETTER THERMODYNAMICS. SOME HIGH RES MODELS SHOW
ISOLATED DISCREET CONVECTION TRYING TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN
LINE OF STORM. THE LATEST SPC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK HAS NOT CHANGED
WITH THE ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) FOR NWOH AND THE REST OF NEOH AND
NWPA IN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY (LEVEL 2/5). THE SPC TORNADO
PROBABILITIES HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 5% OVER THE ENTIRE AREA.
THE DAMAGING WIND RISK HAS INCREASED TO 30% OVER NWOH AND 15% FOR
NEOH AND NWPA. THE MAIN SEVERE HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
FOLLOWED BY A LOW END TORNADO THREAT. THERE IS A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL
BUT LIMITED TO A LOWER END RISK. THERMODYNAMICS WILL BE MOST
FAVORABLE IN NWOH WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES UPWARDS TO 1500 J/KG
AND VERY STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 60+ KNOTS. THERE WILL BE
VERY STRONG SYNOPTIC ASCENT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT THE DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT, ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS OF NORTHWEST OHIO AND WEST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR. THE
THERMODYNAMICS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LESS FAVORABLE AS THIS MAIN
LINE OF STORMS MOVES INTO NEOH AND NWPA LATE INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND
PREDAWN HOURS THURSDAY MORNING. THE LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK DISCUSSION
FROM SPC MENTIONED THAT THEIR SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED A LITTLE HIGHER WITH FUTURE UPDATES AND IF
FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL PUSH SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY EARLY TO MID
MORNING THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE LINGERING SHOWERS IN OUR EASTERN AND
CENTRAL OHIO COUNTIES. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE RAIN CHANCES
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD. THE MAIN
SURFACE FRONT WILL STILL BE NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA ON THURSDAY BUT
SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO BY THURSDAY EVENING.
WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE WARM SPRING-LIKE THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE STORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN CLOSER TO CENTRAL OHIO,
LOWER POPS CLOSER TO THE LAKE. THIS FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AND STALL
OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER LULL IN RAIN CHANCES DURING MOST OF THE DAY
FRIDAY, BUT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THIS STALLED
FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MAY WAFFLE THE BOUNDARY NORTHWARD
BACK INTO NORTHERN OHIO FRIDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS THAT WILL BRING
MORE HEAVY RAINFALL. THE RISK FOR POSSIBLE HYDRO IMPACTS AND
FLOODING THREAT WILL INCREASE WITH THIS ROUND OF CONVECTION FRIDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE STALLED
FRONT WILL LINGER NEARBY OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE A ROUND OF CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
ONGOING SATURDAY MORNING WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE DURING THE DAY.
THERE MAY BE ANOTHER WAVE THAT FLARES UP ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
ALONG THE STALLED FRONT SATURDAY EVENING INT SUNDAY MORNING. THERE
IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND WHERE THESE SWATHS OF HEAVIER
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND TRACK ACROSS. THE GENERAL IDEA IS THE
HIGHER CHANCES AND IMPACTS WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA CLOSER TO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OHIO.
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL FINALLY CHANGE FROM BEING PARALLEL
TO THIS STALLED FRONT WITH A STRONG TROUGH DIGGING DOWN ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS
PATTERN CHANGE WILL KICK THAT STALLED FRONT EASTWARD. A COLD FRONT
WITH A MORE NOTABLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL FAVOR A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST
CONUS. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AROUND MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT POSSIBLE. MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT
WILL CAUSE SOME LAKE EFFECT TO RETURN FOR THE SNOWBELT REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 30S FOR HIGH TEMPS EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS IN THE 20S.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MIXED-BAG OF VFR AND MVFR ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON,
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CEILINGS. RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST
MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO VFR OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS WITH VFR THEN FAVORED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR NON-VFR WILL ARRIVE FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG AN APPROACHING WARM
FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE WARM FRONT WITH
BRIEF IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE
ELEVATED, SO ALTHOUGH THE WIND THREAT IS LOW, SMALL HAIL CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.
WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND FAVORING A NORTH TO NORTHEAST
DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON, LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TOWARDS THE EAST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT, THEN BECOME
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE WARM FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON, INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH PERIODIC
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. OPTED AGAINST LLWS INCLUSION
AT THIS TIME, GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE SURFACE
GUSTS AND STRONGER WINDS AT 2KFT.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS MAY BE
STRONG TO SEVERE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH A DAMAGING
WIND THREAT, PARTICULARLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-77 CORRIDOR.
NON-VFR MAY RETURN IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. NON-VFR
MORE LIKELY AREAWIDE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.
MARINE
MARINE WEATHER WILL START OUT GENERALLY QUIET TODAY WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW 10 KNOTS OR LESS. BY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL
INCREASE AS WELL. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY
LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE LAKE WEDNESDAY MORNING OR MIDDAY WITH A SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS 20 TO 30+ KNOTS WEDNEDAY AFTERNOON CONTINUING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THURSDAY MORNING, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
SETTLE SOUTH OF THE LAKE, WITH GENERALLY WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW OF
10 TO 15 KNOTS FAVORED TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
OHZ003-006>011-017>021-027>032-036>038-047.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...13
NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...KAHN
MARINE...77
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