382
FXUS61 KCLE 030602
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
202 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS A RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD
FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
945 PM UPDATE...
WITH THIS LATE EVENING UPDATE, THERE WERE NO IMPACTFUL CHANGES
MADE OR NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. WE ARE STILL EXPECTED RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE
AS THE NIGHT GOES ON INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS OF 930 PM, THE
COLD FRONT IS STILL MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH NWOH AND IS
APPROXIMATELY JUST EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR. TOMORROW'S 24 HOUR
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY FALL INTO THE 50S AND STAY
COOL, DAMP DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.
730 PM UPDATE...
FOR THIS EARLY EVENING UPDATE, WE DECREASED POPS FROM WHAT WAS
PREVIOUSLY IN OUR FORECAST THROUGH ABOUT 06Z THIS EVENING. THE
LIKELY POPS WE HAD WERE A LITTLE HIGH FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
TONIGHT. WE HAVE SCATTERED POPS 30 TO 50 PERCENT THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING. THE POPS AFTER 06Z INTO SATURDAY MORNING LOOKED
GOOD WITH LIKELY TO WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED. WE DID CONTINUE A
MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH MID TO
LATE EVENING. OTHERWISE, THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH NWOH AT THIS TIME AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ALOFT, CYCLONIC SW'ERLY FLOW AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES AFFECT OUR REGION THROUGH SATURDAY AS A TROUGH AXIS
MOVES SE'WARD FROM THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL
GREAT PLAINS TO NEAR THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND MID MS VALLEY
BY SUNSET SATURDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION, A MID/UPPER- LEVEL LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER/NEAR CENTRAL AND THEN SOUTHERN IL ON
SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP GENERALLY
SE'WARD THROUGH OUR REGION THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT, A
TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE LAKE ERIE REGION AND UPPER OH VALLEY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS A RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH-
CENTRAL U.S. IN ADDITION, AS THE FRONT SETTLES NEAR THE OH
VALLEY TONIGHT, MULTIPLE SURFACE LOWS ACCOMPANYING THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
NE'WARD ALONG THE FRONT. DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY, ONE OF
THESE LOWS IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN APPRECIABLY AS IT MOVES NE'WARD
FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY TOWARD THE MID OH VALLEY AND COINCIDES
WITH GREATER MID/UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND MSLP FALLS,
RESPECTIVELY, DOWNSTREAM OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS
ALOFT. LOW-LEVEL CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTRIBUTE TO OVERNIGHT LOWS REACHING THE MID 40'S TO MID 50'S
AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY. ON SATURDAY, ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND
CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL CAA ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT DAYTIME HIGHS TO
THE LOWER 50'S TO LOWER 60'S. THE COOLEST HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG/NEAR THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ERIE DUE TO PERSISTENT
NE'ERLY ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE ~52F LAKE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/MOIST
ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT AND DOWNSHEAR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
INTERACTING FAVORABLY WITH AMBIENT LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR
RELEASE WEAK TO MODERATE WARM/MOIST SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE
AMIDST MODERATE TO STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. THIS
THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
SOME STORMS BECOMING SEVERE THROUGH THIS EARLY EVENING, BEFORE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO STABILIZE VIA NOCTURNAL COOLING
LATER THIS EVENING. SEVERE HAIL THE SIZE OF QUARTERS OR
SLIGHTLY BIGGER REMAINS A CONCERN SINCE BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE
MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SIZABLE MUCAPE IN THE HAIL
GROWTH ZONE, DESPITE WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND FAVORABLE
AMBIENT MELTING LEVELS NEAR 9KFT TO 10KFT AGL PERSIST IN THE
WARM SECTOR. ISOLATED STRAIGHT-LINE CONVECTIVE WIND DAMAGE
REMAINS POSSIBLE AS DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER YIELDS STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE NEAR 500 TO
600 J/KG THROUGH THIS EARLY EVENING. SW'ERLY MEAN MID-LEVEL
FLOW, ESSENTIALLY PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRONT, WILL CONTINUE TO
PERMIT TRAINING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THUS, ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING REMAINS A CONCERN SINCE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE ALSO
EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS/STORMS AS A LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW OF MOIST
AIR FROM THE GULF CONTINUES TO YIELD UNUSUALLY-HIGH PWAT VALUES
IN THE WARM SECTOR. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, PERIODS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT,
AND THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE WARM CONVEYOR BELTS OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL LOWS ENHANCE MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ALOFT. IN ADDITION, THE LOW'S CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS SHOULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY FRONTOGENETICAL CONVERGENCE ALOFT AMIDST
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND THE FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD RELEASE
WEAK POTENTIAL INSTABILITY.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT, THE TROUGH AXIS ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
SE'WARD TOWARD LAKE HURON AND THE MID OH VALLEY AS THE
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WOBBLES SE'WARD TOWARD THE MID OH VALLEY. AT
THE SURFACE, THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE CONTINUES TO ATTEMPT TO
BUILD FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. AS TROUGHING LINGERS OVER LAKE
ERIE, NORTHERN OH, AND NW PA. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW
SHOULD BECOME OCCLUDED AND WOBBLE IN VICINITY OF THE MID OH
VALLEY AS IT BECOMES VERTICALLY-STACKED WITH THE LOW ALOFT.
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM'S WARM CONVEYOR BELT CONTINUES TO UNDERGO
MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALOFT AND THE BIFURCATING WARM CONVEYOR
BELT CONTINUES TO CONTRIBUTE TO FRONTOGENETICAL CONVERGENCE
ALOFT, AMIDST SUFFICIENT MOISTURE, AND THESE LIFTING MECHANISMS
CONTINUE TO RELEASE WEAK POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. CONTINUED
NE'ERLY SURFACE FLOW, ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC LOW-LEVEL
CAA, WILL CONTRIBUTE TO OVERNIGHT LOWS REACHING MAINLY THE MID
40'S TO LOWER 50'S AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A CUT-OFF AND NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, PRESENTING
CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA AS
MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE CENTER OF THE LOW. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
PRESENT ON SUNDAY, LEADING TO A MORE LIKELY CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. ON MONDAY, THE MOISTURE DIMINISHES A BIT AS
THE LOW WEAKENS SLIGHTLY, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT ON MONDAY,
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA WITH MODELS SUGGESTING
CAPE VALUES OF MORE THAN 1000 J/KG BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SHEAR
VALUES OF 30-40 KNOTS. THIS FLOW IS ATYPICAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
PATTERNS ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA, BUT IT
ISN'T IMPOSSIBLE SO WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST
FOR MONDAY.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BEFORE WARMING
INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S ON MONDAY. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL
BE LOCATED EAST OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER, OR ROUGHLY ALONG I77 AND
AREAS EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD FINALLY DRIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY AS THE SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN SHIFTS AND
BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA, BEFORE
THE AREA BRIEFLY DRIES OUT TUESDAY NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY, LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES, DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD
FRONT EAST AND PRESENTING ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD FINALLY BUILD OVER THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, GRADUALLY DRYING OUT THE ENTIRE
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE 60S, POSSIBLY TOUCHING LOW 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MULTIPLE WAVES OF RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY EXITS TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE
MEANDERS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
LIE FROM ROUGHLY KFDY TO KCLE EASTWARD, HOWEVER SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY PERIODICALLY CLIP KTOL. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER OR DRIZZLE/MIST AT SOME POINT THIS EVENING, BUT
EXPECT THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
CEILINGS WILL START OFF AS VFR ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, BUT
ANTICIPATE CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE IN LOWERING CEILINGS AND
LOWER VISIBILITIES IN RAIN/PATCHY FOG OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WIDESPREAD MVFR IS ANTICIPATED AREAWIDE AND IFR LIKELY
SOUTHEAST OF KTOL BY NO LATER THAN 12Z. THERE'S SOME POTENTIAL
FOR PERIODIC LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING OR AFTERNOON, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS POINT.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 6 TO 12 KNOTS FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NON-VFR ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE A
COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE TODAY, SHIFTING WINDS ACROSS ALL
BASINS TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS. ON SATURDAY, A LOW PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, SHIFTING WINDS
ACROSS LAKE ERIE TO THE NORTHEAST. AS THIS LOW STRENGTHENS ON
SATURDAY, WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHEAST BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN WAVES BUILDING TO 3-5 FEET WITH
LARGEST WAVES ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BASINS. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL NEED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. THERE MAY BE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
BASIN SATURDAY MORNING, HOWEVER THE MAGNITUDE LOOKS TO REMAIN
VERY MARGINAL AND THUS DID NOT ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT FOR THAT TIME.
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LINGERS OVER THE AREA INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
BY MONDAY THE LOW WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH TO HAVE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-
15 KNOTS. ON MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY, THE LOW SHIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED AT 5-10 KNOTS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
ALLOWING FOR WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHEAST.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JASZKA
NEAR TERM...77/JASZKA
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...15
MARINE...04
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