079
FXUS61 KCLE 030817
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
417 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE A RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
A SOGGY NEAR TERM PERIOD IS ANTICIPATED AS A COLD FRONT DRIFTS EAST
OF THE LOCAL AREA AND A CUTOFF LOW MEANDERS ACROSS THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. MOIST RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW WAVES OF
RAIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
PERIODS OF LOWER RAIN COVERAGE AND PERHAPS DRY BREAKS WITH SOME
DRIZZLE/MIST. PRECIP COVERAGE MAY BECOME A BIT MORE SCATTERED IN
SOUTHERN ZONES BY SUNDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE
REGION AS THE OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN OHIO
VALLEY, BUT BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LIFT ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. INSTABILITY AND
THUNDER CHANCES ARE QUITE LOW TODAY, BUT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING SUNDAY
DUE TO INCREASED INSTABILITY. MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON IF
INSTABILITY VALUES TREND HIGHER.
PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. TOTAL QPF VALUES MAY EXCEED AN INCH AND THERE MAY BE
LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS AS HIGH AS AN INCH AND A HALF BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND. THE FLOODING RISK IS LOW OVERALL SINCE RAIN
WILL BE STRETCHED OUT OVER A COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE MORE RESPONSIVE AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THE VERY LEAST, THERE WILL MOST LIKELY
BE SOME PONDING AND PERHAPS NUISANCE FLOODING THROUGH SUNDAY.
TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S AND LOWER 60S EXPECTED AREAWIDE. NORTHEAST WINDS OFF OF LAKE
ERIE WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY COOLER TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
DOWNWIND FROM THE LAKE. ANTICIPATE LOWS IN THE MID T UPPER 40S
TONIGHT. SUNDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST OF THE
AREA, HOWEVER PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPS IN THE 50S ACROSS NW OH.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
LOOKING AT THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE, A CUT-OFF LOW CONTINUES TO REMAIN
CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY (KY/IN/OH), MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESS
ACROSS OHIO ON TUESDAY AND TOWARDS THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT,
DISSIPATING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. REDEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON, LASTING
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. POPS GENERALLY IN THE 60-80%, WITH
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MONDAY COULD BE INTERESTING FROM A SEVERE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE.
CYCLONIC SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW EAST OF THE CUT-OFF LOW WILL RESULT
IN THE BUILDING WARM, MOIST AIR CONTRIBUTING TO FORECAST MUCAPE OF
AROUND 500-1000 J/KG (MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR EAST OF I-77 AT THIS
POINT), WHICH WILL ALSO BE COLLOCATED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-45
KNOTS. COULD SEE A LOW END SEVERE THREAT MATERIALIZE FOR THE EASTERN
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA (I.E. APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND EAST OF I-
77).
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS THE UPPER-LOW CROSSES
OHIO WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF ITS
DEPARTURE. TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY, THOUGH
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
PRODUCE RENEWED PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THEREAFTER WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO REMAIN SEASONABLE.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MULTIPLE WAVES OF RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY EXITS TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE
MEANDERS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
LIE FROM ROUGHLY KFDY TO KCLE EASTWARD, HOWEVER SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY PERIODICALLY CLIP KTOL. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER OR DRIZZLE/MIST AT SOME POINT THIS EVENING, BUT
EXPECT THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
CEILINGS WILL START OFF AS VFR ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, BUT
ANTICIPATE CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE IN LOWERING CEILINGS AND
LOWER VISIBILITIES IN RAIN/PATCHY FOG OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WIDESPREAD MVFR IS ANTICIPATED AREAWIDE AND IFR LIKELY
SOUTHEAST OF KTOL BY NO LATER THAN 12Z. THERE'S SOME POTENTIAL
FOR PERIODIC LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING OR AFTERNOON, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS POINT.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 6 TO 12 KNOTS FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NON-VFR ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
MARINE
NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST LOCALIZED STRONGER WINDS IN THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE LAKE ERIE CENTRAL BASIN (FROM THE THE
ISLANDS TO APPROXIMATELY GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE) THIS MORNING THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN WINDS MAY STRENGTHEN TO 20 KNOTS
WITH WAVES OF AROUND 3-4 FEET. MAY SEE BRIEF IMPROVEMENTS TO LAKE
ERIE CONDITIONS BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 20Z-02Z THIS EVENING BEFORE
THEY STRENGTHEN AGAIN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH PEAK WIND SPEEDS
AROUND 25 KNOTS (POTENTIALLY 30 KNOTS AT TIMES) 10-20Z SUNDAY ACROSS
THE ENTIRETY OF LAKE ERIE. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE ERIE TO COVER THESE
PERIODS OF ROUGH WATERS. CONDITIONS ON LAKE ERIE SHOULD IMPROVE
THROUGH THE WEEK.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EDT
SUNDAY FOR LEZ142-143.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ144>146.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR LEZ147>149.
SYNOPSIS...15
NEAR TERM...15
SHORT TERM...SAUNDERS
LONG TERM...SAUNDERS
AVIATION...15
MARINE...SAUNDERS
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