579
FXUS61 KCLE 031045
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
645 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE A RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
630 AM UPDATE...
MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TO 100 PERCENT IN LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE RAIN FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON AND INCREASED POPS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NW OH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OTHERWISE, NO
CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SOGGY NEAR TERM PERIOD IS ANTICIPATED AS A COLD FRONT DRIFTS
EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND A CUTOFF LOW MEANDERS ACROSS THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. MOIST RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW
WAVES OF RAIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH
THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF LOWER RAIN COVERAGE AND PERHAPS DRY
BREAKS WITH SOME DRIZZLE/MIST. PRECIP COVERAGE MAY BECOME A BIT
MORE SCATTERED IN SOUTHERN ZONES BY SUNDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR
WORKS INTO THE REGION AS THE OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW LIFTS INTO
THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY, BUT BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LIFT
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.
INSTABILITY AND THUNDER CHANCES ARE QUITE LOW TODAY, BUT
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING PEAK HEATING SUNDAY DUE TO INCREASED INSTABILITY. MAY
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON IF INSTABILITY VALUES TREND HIGHER.
PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. TOTAL QPF VALUES MAY EXCEED AN INCH AND THERE MAY BE
LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS AS HIGH AS AN INCH AND A HALF BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND. THE FLOODING RISK IS LOW OVERALL SINCE RAIN
WILL BE STRETCHED OUT OVER A COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE MORE RESPONSIVE AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THE VERY LEAST, THERE WILL MOST LIKELY
BE SOME PONDING AND PERHAPS NUISANCE FLOODING THROUGH SUNDAY.
TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S AND LOWER 60S EXPECTED AREAWIDE. NORTHEAST WINDS OFF OF LAKE
ERIE WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY COOLER TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
DOWNWIND FROM THE LAKE. ANTICIPATE LOWS IN THE MID T UPPER 40S
TONIGHT. SUNDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST OF THE
AREA, HOWEVER PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPS IN THE 50S ACROSS NW OH.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
LOOKING AT THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE, A CUT-OFF LOW CONTINUES TO REMAIN
CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY (KY/IN/OH), MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESS
ACROSS OHIO ON TUESDAY AND TOWARDS THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT,
DISSIPATING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. REDEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON, LASTING
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. POPS GENERALLY IN THE 60-80%, WITH
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MONDAY COULD BE INTERESTING FROM A SEVERE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE.
CYCLONIC SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW EAST OF THE CUT-OFF LOW WILL RESULT
IN THE BUILDING WARM, MOIST AIR CONTRIBUTING TO FORECAST MUCAPE OF
AROUND 500-1000 J/KG (MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR EAST OF I-77 AT THIS
POINT), WHICH WILL ALSO BE COLLOCATED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-45
KNOTS. COULD SEE A LOW END SEVERE THREAT MATERIALIZE FOR THE EASTERN
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA (I.E. APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND EAST OF I-
77).
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS THE UPPER-LOW CROSSES
OHIO WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF ITS
DEPARTURE. TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY, THOUGH
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
PRODUCE RENEWED PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THEREAFTER WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO REMAIN SEASONABLE.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD. HAVE PREVAILING -SHRA AT MOST TERMINALS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE TAF PERIOD WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF VCSH WHERE THERE'S A
CHANCE OF AT LEAST A BRIEF BREAK THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
HOWEVER, THE NEXT WAVE OF RAIN WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL MOST
LIKELY VARY BETWEEN MVFR, IFR, AND LIFR, HOWEVER GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL BE SOCKED IN WITH
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. KTOL WILL LIKELY HAVE THE
MOST OPTIMISTIC FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH IFR THIS MORNING GIVING
WAY TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS AT KTOL LATER THIS EVENING. PERIODIC
AMENDMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS CONDITIONS FLUCTUATE IN
RAIN, PATCHY FOG, AND LOW STRATUS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
NORTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 12 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 25 KNOTS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT, PRIMARILY AT WESTERN TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NON-VFR ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST LOCALIZED STRONGER WINDS IN THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE LAKE ERIE CENTRAL BASIN (FROM THE THE
ISLANDS TO APPROXIMATELY GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE) THIS MORNING THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN WINDS MAY STRENGTHEN TO 20 KNOTS
WITH WAVES OF AROUND 3-4 FEET. MAY SEE BRIEF IMPROVEMENTS TO LAKE
ERIE CONDITIONS BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 20Z-02Z THIS EVENING BEFORE
THEY STRENGTHEN AGAIN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH PEAK WIND SPEEDS
AROUND 25 KNOTS (POTENTIALLY 30 KNOTS AT TIMES) 10-20Z SUNDAY ACROSS
THE ENTIRETY OF LAKE ERIE. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE ERIE TO COVER THESE
PERIODS OF ROUGH WATERS. CONDITIONS ON LAKE ERIE SHOULD IMPROVE
THROUGH THE WEEK.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EDT
SUNDAY FOR LEZ142-143.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ144>146.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR LEZ147>149.
SYNOPSIS...15
NEAR TERM...15
SHORT TERM...SAUNDERS
LONG TERM...SAUNDERS
AVIATION...15
MARINE...SAUNDERS
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