104
FXUS61 KCLE 031816
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
216 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE A RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
DRIER AIR IS STARTING TO WORK INTO FAR NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE RAIN
IS ENDING FOR TODAY. ELSEWHERE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY SETTLING SOUTH OF ROUTE 30 WITH
SOME BREAKS OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL RATES ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR BUT A SLIGHT UPTICK IS EXPECTED IN
OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME SLIGHTLY
HEAVIER RAIN CAN BE SEEN MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL OHIO. RAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK NORTH ON SUNDAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NEARLY WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND HAVE
RAISED POPS TO AROUND 100 PERCENT WHERE RAIN IS FALLING. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND CLOSES OFF AS
IT ROTATES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THE 925-850MB FRONT
TIGHTENS UP AND SETTLES SOUTHEAST INTO THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
BECOME THE FOCUS FOR RAIN LATER TODAY. IN ADDITION, DEFORMATION
WILL STRENGTHEN OVERHEAD AND AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
MANSFIELD TO MEADVILLE COULD SEE ABOUT AN INCH OF RAIN THROUGH
MIDNIGHT, WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY BRINGING
POTENTIALLY ANOTHER HALF INCH. RISES ARE EXPECTED ON SOME
RIVERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST AT KILLBUCK(WAYNE AND HOLMES
COUNTIES) AND EAGLE CREEK(TRUMBULL COUNTY) AND MINOR FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE.
A BRISK NORTHEAST WIND IS ALSO EXPECTED TODAY AND LOWED HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE
TO GET OUT OF THE 40S IN THE NORTH EXCEPT TOWARDS TOLEDO WHERE
THE RAIN SHOULD END THIS AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SOGGY NEAR TERM PERIOD IS ANTICIPATED AS A COLD FRONT DRIFTS
EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND A CUTOFF LOW MEANDERS ACROSS THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. MOIST RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW
WAVES OF RAIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH
THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF LOWER RAIN COVERAGE AND PERHAPS DRY
BREAKS WITH SOME DRIZZLE/MIST. PRECIP COVERAGE MAY BECOME A BIT
MORE SCATTERED IN SOUTHERN ZONES BY SUNDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR
WORKS INTO THE REGION AS THE OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW LIFTS INTO
THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY, BUT BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LIFT
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.
INSTABILITY AND THUNDER CHANCES ARE QUITE LOW TODAY, BUT
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING PEAK HEATING SUNDAY DUE TO INCREASED INSTABILITY. MAY
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON IF INSTABILITY VALUES TREND HIGHER.
PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. TOTAL QPF VALUES MAY EXCEED AN INCH AND THERE MAY BE
LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS AS HIGH AS AN INCH AND A HALF BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND. THE FLOODING RISK IS LOW OVERALL SINCE RAIN
WILL BE STRETCHED OUT OVER A COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE MORE RESPONSIVE AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THE VERY LEAST, THERE WILL MOST LIKELY
BE SOME PONDING AND PERHAPS NUISANCE FLOODING THROUGH SUNDAY.
TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S AND LOWER 60S EXPECTED AREAWIDE. NORTHEAST WINDS OFF OF LAKE
ERIE WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY COOLER TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
DOWNWIND FROM THE LAKE. ANTICIPATE LOWS IN THE MID T UPPER 40S
TONIGHT. SUNDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST OF THE
AREA, HOWEVER PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPS IN THE 50S ACROSS NW OH.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
LOOKING AT THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE, A CUT-OFF LOW CONTINUES TO REMAIN
CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY (KY/IN/OH), MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESS
ACROSS OHIO ON TUESDAY AND TOWARDS THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT,
DISSIPATING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. REDEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON, LASTING
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. POPS GENERALLY IN THE 60-80%, WITH
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MONDAY COULD BE INTERESTING FROM A SEVERE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE.
CYCLONIC SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW EAST OF THE CUT-OFF LOW WILL RESULT
IN THE BUILDING WARM, MOIST AIR CONTRIBUTING TO FORECAST MUCAPE OF
AROUND 500-1000 J/KG (MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR EAST OF I-77 AT THIS
POINT), WHICH WILL ALSO BE COLLOCATED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-45
KNOTS. COULD SEE A LOW END SEVERE THREAT MATERIALIZE FOR THE EASTERN
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA (I.E. APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND EAST OF I-
77).
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS THE UPPER-LOW CROSSES
OHIO WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF ITS
DEPARTURE. TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY, THOUGH
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
PRODUCE RENEWED PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THEREAFTER WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO REMAIN SEASONABLE.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
STEADY MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TODAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CLOSING OFF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS
ONGOING ACROSS ALL BUT NW OHIO AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS. A LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY
SETTLE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND RAIN WILL TEND TO BECOME
FOCUSED SOUTH OF THE ROUTE 30 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING BEFORE
LIFTING BACK NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IFR CEILINGS ARE IN
PLACE AT MOST TAF SITES EXCEPT VFR AT TOL WHERE SOME DRIER AIR
IS WORKING INTO NW OHIO FROM THE NORTH. IN GENERAL THE IFR WILL
CONTINUE AND COULD SEE OCCASIONAL LOW IFR TONIGHT, INCLUDING A
WINDOW OF TIME THIS EVENING WHEN PATCHY FOG COME IN OFF LAKE
ERIE. VISIBILITIES COULD DROP BELOW 1/2 MILE AT ERI AND NEAR A
MILE AT CLE/YNG. LATE TONIGHT RAIN STARTS TO LIFT BACK NORTH AND
MAY BE MODERATE AT TIMES INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LIGHTNING IS
UNLIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT COULD SEE A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THE RAIN HAS HAD A STABILIZING EFFECT ON THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
MOST LOCATIONS ARE NOT SEEING WIND GUSTS. A NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WIND OF 10-15 KNOTS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS TODAY
AND MAY INCREASE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT WHEN LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
INTO EASTERN OHIO.
OUTLOOK...PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NON-VFR ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
MARINE
NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST LOCALIZED STRONGER WINDS IN THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE LAKE ERIE CENTRAL BASIN (FROM THE THE
ISLANDS TO APPROXIMATELY GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE) THIS MORNING THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN WINDS MAY STRENGTHEN TO 20 KNOTS
WITH WAVES OF AROUND 3-4 FEET. MAY SEE BRIEF IMPROVEMENTS TO LAKE
ERIE CONDITIONS BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 20Z-02Z THIS EVENING BEFORE
THEY STRENGTHEN AGAIN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH PEAK WIND SPEEDS
AROUND 25 KNOTS (POTENTIALLY 30 KNOTS AT TIMES) 10-20Z SUNDAY ACROSS
THE ENTIRETY OF LAKE ERIE. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE ERIE TO COVER THESE
PERIODS OF ROUGH WATERS. CONDITIONS ON LAKE ERIE SHOULD IMPROVE
THROUGH THE WEEK.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EDT
SUNDAY FOR LEZ142-143.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ144>147.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR LEZ148-149.
SYNOPSIS...15
NEAR TERM...10/15
SHORT TERM...SAUNDERS
LONG TERM...SAUNDERS
AVIATION...10
MARINE...SAUNDERS
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