090
FXUS61 KCLE 040822
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
422 AM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MEANDER AROUND THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY, BUT THERE WILL MOST LIKELY BE PERIODS OF DRY BREAKS,
MOST NOTABLY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR TEMPORARILY WORKS INTO THE REGION.
THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR CONVECTION OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE FIRST OPPORTUNITY WILL ARRIVE AS A
PIECE OF ENERGY (LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH AN OCCLUDING FRONT)
LIFTS INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A STRIP OF INSTABILITY ACROSS NE OH/NW PA
AND WIND PROFILES SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA WITH A SLIGHTLY LOWER
CHANCE OF THUNDER TO THE WEST. THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA, BUT
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT
GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-77 CORRIDOR. A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER BARELY CLIPS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE LOCAL AREA,
BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR AN EXPANSION
TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. EASTERN ZONES MAY REMAIN SOCKED IN WITH
LOW STRATUS ALL DAY WHICH COULD LIMIT DESTABILIZATION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE HIGHER ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. DESTABILIZATION WILL BE MUCH MORE EFFICIENT DUE TO
THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER AND WIND SHEAR VALUES
WILL LIKELY REACH 30 TO 40 KNOTS ACROSS NE OH/NW PA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AT SOME POINT LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTH/NORTHEAST
INTO MONDAY EVENING. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL CAN'T
BE RULED OUT WHERE THE BEST DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR,
PRIMARILY EAST OF THE I-77 CORRIDOR.
QPF VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH THROUGH
MONDAY, BUT THERE'S POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1
TO 1.5 INCHES WHERE SHOWERS/STORMS MAY TRAIN ACROSS NW OH AND NE
OH/NW PA. LOCAL RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE IN THESE AREAS AND
THERE COULD BE INSTANCES OF LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS, ESPECIALLY IF MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF MODERATE
RAIN MOVE OVER THE SAME SPOTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ALONG AND EAST OF
I-71, HOWEVER CONTINUED NORTHEAST WINDS WILL RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPS IN THE 50S WEST OF I-71. IT WILL BE QUITE BREEZY TODAY SO
WIND CHILLS ALONG AND WEST OF I-75 WILL MOST LIKELY STAY IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S. EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S MONDAY, BUT THE WARMEST TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO ABOUT 70 DEGREES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
STARTING TO FEEL LIKE A BROKEN RECORD AT THIS POINT, BUT WE ARE
STILL EXPECTING THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, BEFORE IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY AND THEN EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN WEDNESDAY BEFORE
A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LOW, AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN A LITTLE INSTABILITY COULD LEAD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY PARTS OF TUESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE THE AFFECTS OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TAKE OVER. A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT, THOUGH PRECEDING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REALLY
LIMIT SHOWER POTENTIAL.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD, THE GENERAL IDEA IS FOR AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES (MAYBE AS FAR WEST
AS OUR FORECAST AREA) WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE DEPARTING
TO THE EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
THEREAFTER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS NO PRECIPITATION, WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE EXPECTATION FOR
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
RETAIN LOW POPS (10-20%) DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS EACH DAY, WHICH
HAS BEEN RETAINED IN THE FORECAST. THIS IS DUE TO SOME UNCERTAIN
WITH LOCATIONS OF HIGH PRESSURE (WHICH MAY TRACK TO OUR NORTH) AND
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS, WITH MOISTURE
ADVECTION EXTENDING TO OUR SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. REGARDLESS, SHOULD
SEE MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SUN (YES, EVEN OVER THE WEEKEND THIS
TIME), AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY GIVE WAY
TO RISING TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
EXPECTED.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD, HOWEVER THERE WILL LIKELY BE PERIODIC
DRY BREAKS IN BETWEEN ROUNDS OF RAIN. REGARDLESS, MOST TERMINALS
WILL EXPERIENCE NON-VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH IFR/LIFR CEILINGS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH
06Z MONDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS WILL BE A PERIOD OF VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KTOL THROUGH ABOUT 15Z AND A CHANCE OF SOME
CLEARING/MVFR CEILINGS AT KCAK/KYNG THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. THERE'S SOME POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AT
KCLE/KMFD/KCAK/KYNG LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING,
HOWEVER THE PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE OF STORMS REMAINS A BIT
UNCERTAIN SO HAVE INTRODUCED THUNDER IN PROB30 GROUPS. WILL MOST
LIKELY CONTINUE ADJUSTING TIMING IN FUTURE UPDATES.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 6 TO 12 KNOTS WITH
PERIODIC GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS LIKELY PRIMARILY ACROSS NW OH
AND ALONG THE LAKESHORE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER INLAND NE OH
THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NON-VFR ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15
TO 25 KNOTS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING WITH PEAK WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 00Z THIS EVENING. WAVES OF 6 TO 8 FEET
ARE EXPECTED. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT TO
COVER THESE CONDITIONS.
THIS LOW WEAKENS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD TOWARDS LAKE ERIE TONIGHT,
WITH CONDITIONS ON LAKE ERIE IMPROVING AS IT DOES SO. LOW PRESSURE
DEPARTS TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN BEHIND IT. A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER HIGH BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. A
PERIOD OF NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS COULD RESULT
IN BRIEF MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142-
143.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
SYNOPSIS...15
NEAR TERM...15
SHORT TERM...SAUNDERS
LONG TERM...SAUNDERS
AVIATION...15
MARINE...SAUNDERS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page