796
FXUS61 KCLE 041824
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
224 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
MUCH OF THE AREA IS EXPERIENCING A BREAK IN THE RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVEN A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED
FORM CENTRAL OHIO TOWARDS CANTON. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO WHERE A SWATH OF RAIN HAS FILLED IN OVER
THE LAST HOUR. THIS AREA OF RAIN ALIGNS WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
ROTATING NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD SIGNAL IN
THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS THAT THIS RAIN WILL PERSIST FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. MODERATE RAIN IS LIKELY BUT COULD SEE SOME
HEAVIER RAINS IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW IN THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS
ONLY A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE ARE EXPECTED LATER TODAY
BUT THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL DOES ROTATE INTO CENTRAL OHIO THIS
EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD SURPASS AN INCH WITH POCKETS OF
2 INCHES POSSIBLE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MEANDER AROUND THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY, BUT THERE WILL MOST LIKELY BE PERIODS OF DRY BREAKS,
MOST NOTABLY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR TEMPORARILY WORKS INTO THE REGION.
THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR CONVECTION OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE FIRST OPPORTUNITY WILL ARRIVE AS A
PIECE OF ENERGY (LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH AN OCCLUDING FRONT)
LIFTS INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A STRIP OF INSTABILITY ACROSS NE OH/NW PA
AND WIND PROFILES SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA WITH A SLIGHTLY LOWER
CHANCE OF THUNDER TO THE WEST. THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA, BUT
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT
GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-77 CORRIDOR. A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER BARELY CLIPS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE LOCAL AREA,
BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR AN EXPANSION
TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. EASTERN ZONES MAY REMAIN SOCKED IN WITH
LOW STRATUS ALL DAY WHICH COULD LIMIT DESTABILIZATION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE HIGHER ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. DESTABILIZATION WILL BE MUCH MORE EFFICIENT DUE TO
THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER AND WIND SHEAR VALUES
WILL LIKELY REACH 30 TO 40 KNOTS ACROSS NE OH/NW PA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AT SOME POINT LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTH/NORTHEAST
INTO MONDAY EVENING. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL CAN'T
BE RULED OUT WHERE THE BEST DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR,
PRIMARILY EAST OF THE I-77 CORRIDOR.
QPF VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH THROUGH
MONDAY, BUT THERE'S POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1
TO 1.5 INCHES WHERE SHOWERS/STORMS MAY TRAIN ACROSS NW OH AND NE
OH/NW PA. LOCAL RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE IN THESE AREAS AND
THERE COULD BE INSTANCES OF LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS, ESPECIALLY IF MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF MODERATE
RAIN MOVE OVER THE SAME SPOTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ALONG AND EAST OF
I-71, HOWEVER CONTINUED NORTHEAST WINDS WILL RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPS IN THE 50S WEST OF I-71. IT WILL BE QUITE BREEZY TODAY SO
WIND CHILLS ALONG AND WEST OF I-75 WILL MOST LIKELY STAY IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S. EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S MONDAY, BUT THE WARMEST TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO ABOUT 70 DEGREES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
STARTING TO FEEL LIKE A BROKEN RECORD AT THIS POINT, BUT WE ARE
STILL EXPECTING THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, BEFORE IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY AND THEN EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN WEDNESDAY BEFORE
A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LOW, AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN A LITTLE INSTABILITY COULD LEAD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY PARTS OF TUESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE THE AFFECTS OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TAKE OVER. A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT, THOUGH PRECEDING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REALLY
LIMIT SHOWER POTENTIAL.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD, THE GENERAL IDEA IS FOR AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES (MAYBE AS FAR WEST
AS OUR FORECAST AREA) WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE DEPARTING
TO THE EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
THEREAFTER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS NO PRECIPITATION, WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE EXPECTATION FOR
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
RETAIN LOW POPS (10-20%) DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS EACH DAY, WHICH
HAS BEEN RETAINED IN THE FORECAST. THIS IS DUE TO SOME UNCERTAIN
WITH LOCATIONS OF HIGH PRESSURE (WHICH MAY TRACK TO OUR NORTH) AND
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS, WITH MOISTURE
ADVECTION EXTENDING TO OUR SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. REGARDLESS, SHOULD
SEE MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SUN (YES, EVEN OVER THE WEEKEND THIS
TIME), AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY GIVE WAY
TO RISING TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
EXPECTED.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MUCH OF THE AREA IS EXPERIENCING A BREAK IN THE RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVEN A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED
FORM CENTRAL OHIO TOWARDS CANTON. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO WHERE A SWATH OF RAIN HAS FILLED IN OVER
THE LAST HOUR. THIS AREA OF RAIN ALIGNS WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
ROTATING NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD SIGNAL IN
THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS THAT THIS RAIN WILL PERSIST FOR
SEVERAL HOURS AT YNG AND POSSIBLY EXTEND TO CLE/ERI/CAK THROUGH
THIS EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN RAIN. ELSEWHERE IN
THE NORTH WE CAN ALSO EXPECT IFR CEILINGS WITHOUT THE RAIN.
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW BUT DOES EXIST. HAVE REMOVED
THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM MOST TERMINALS WITH THE MOST
LIKELY SITES AS CAK/YNG INTO THIS EVENING.
THE RAIN WILL MOSTLY TAPER OFF TONIGHT WITH BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS FORECAST TO DEVELOP. THIS SEEMS LIKE A GOOD OPPORTUNITY
FOR FOG TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA WITH AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINING
IN THE LOW LEVELS AND WEAK FLOW WITH BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
IN THE REGION. UNCLEAR YET IF WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP
BUT ADDED A WINDOW OF AT LEAST HALF MILE FOG BETWEEN 08-12Z WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS. IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR QUICKLY BETWEEN 12-15Z MONDAY.
WITH LOW PRESSURE OVERHEAD, WINDS RANGE FROM NORTHEASTERLY ALONG
THE LAKESHORE TO SOUTHERLY AT MFD/CAK. SITES NEAR THE LAKE MAY
HAVE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NON-VFR ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15
TO 25 KNOTS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING WITH PEAK WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 00Z THIS EVENING. WAVES OF 6 TO 8 FEET
ARE EXPECTED. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT TO
COVER THESE CONDITIONS.
THIS LOW WEAKENS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD TOWARDS LAKE ERIE TONIGHT,
WITH CONDITIONS ON LAKE ERIE IMPROVING AS IT DOES SO. LOW PRESSURE
DEPARTS TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN BEHIND IT. A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER HIGH BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. A
PERIOD OF NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS COULD RESULT
IN BRIEF MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142-
143.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
SYNOPSIS...15
NEAR TERM...10/15
SHORT TERM...SAUNDERS
LONG TERM...SAUNDERS
AVIATION...10
MARINE...SAUNDERS
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