922
FXUS61 KCLE 050159
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
959 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TUESDAY AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS
NORTHEAST THROUGH REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN TO END THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
945 PM UPDATE...
WE TOOK A LOOK AT A COUPLE OF THE LATEST 00Z HIGH-RES MODEL
GUIDANCE THAT JUST CAME IN THIS EVENING REGARDING THE DENSE
FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THERE IS A
GOOD INDICATION AND SETUP FOR AREAS OR WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 8 AM. THE
QUESTION THAT STILL REMAINS AND SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN ON HOW
WIDESPREAD WILL BE THE DENSE FOG BECOME AND WHERE THAT WILL
OCCUR. WE DO EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG OF 1 MILE OR LESS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA TONIGHT. DUE TO
SOME UNCERTAINTY, WE WILL NOT GO WITH ANY FOG HEADLINES YET WITH
THIS LATE EVENING UPDATE. BUT THAT MAY HAPPEN LATER TONIGHT IF
NEEDED.
745 PM UPDATE...
FOR THIS MID EVENING UPDATE, WE MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
HOURLY POPS NOW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WE HAVE BEEN
WATCHING A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED THANKS
TO A VERY LIMITED RIBBON OF INSTABILITY JUST NORTH AND EAST OF
THE MAIN CORE OF THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW. THERE COULD BE
SOME OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING, ISOLATED PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL, AND
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE DOWN NEAR THE HIGHWAY 30
CORRIDOR THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD SLOWLY
START TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND BECOME JUST RAIN
SHOWERS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THE OTHER POTENTIAL
WEATHER IMPACT WE ARE MONITORING EVENING IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
WIDESPREAD VERY LOW STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT. SOME OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS POTENTIAL WITH
SOME DENSE FOG POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS OF NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHWEST OHIO OVERNIGHT. WE WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THE LATEST
00Z HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE HERE SHORTLY AND SEE HOW THEY ARE
TRENDING FOR THE DENSE FOG POTENTIAL.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SPINNING
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS, LARGELY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN, WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS LOW THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM FORECAST. FOR TONIGHT, WE HAVE A STEADY BAND OF RAIN
ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO WHERE A THETA-E RIDGE AND DEEP MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IS FOCUSED. THE SURFACE TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN OHIO WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE FOCUSED ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY. A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT HAS WRAPPED NORTH AROUND THE
UPPER LOW TODAY WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME BREAKS TO DEVELOP IN
THE CLOUDS, MAINLY SOUTH OF ROUTE 30, AND FOR WEAK INSTABILITY
OF A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES OF ML CAPE FROM CENTRAL OHIO TOWARDS
YOUNGSTOWN. SOME THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHERN
OHIO AS THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS ALOFT. THIS UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL
IS FORECAST TO PIVOT NORTH THIS EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST OHIO. OUR SOUTHEASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES IS JUST
CLIPPED BY A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS
EVENING THROUGH ABOUT 9 PM. INSTABILITY WILL BE A LIMITING
FACTOR AND ALREADY STARTING TO WANE BY THEN. IF ANY GOOD
UPDRAFTS CAN GET GOING THEN SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZE HAIL AND AN
ISOLATED WIND GUST TO 50 MPH CAN NOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN
EFFECTIVE SHEER VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 40 KNOTS. IN
ADDITION, DEEP LAYER SHEER IN THE ATMOSPHERE COULD SUPPORT A
ROTATING STORM OR TWO WHERE SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE FOCUSED.
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS IN A GOOD SWATH OF RAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST
OHIO WHERE RAIN SHOULD BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE COLUMN IS NEARLY
SATURATED UP TO THE FREEZING LEVEL AND EXPECTING AROUND AN INCH
OF RAIN. SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SUGGESTING POCKETS OF 2
INCHES OR MORE COULD ALSO OCCUR IN THIS AREA AND WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH SOME LOW END THREAT OF
FLOODING. THIS COULD ALSO LEAD TO ADDITIONAL RISES ON EAGLE
CREEK PHALANX WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS ALREADY ONGOING.
SHOWERS WILL TEND TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS WE LOSE DIURNAL HEATING.
MODELS HAVE SUGGESTED THAT BREAKS IN THE STRATUS DECK COULD ALLOW
FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO COOL AND AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG TO THE FORECAST WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE REGION.
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION ON MONDAY. WE WILL
START THE DAY WITH LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THAN THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS WITH THE DRY-SLOT OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER INTO THE
MID 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES ALLOWING FOR A LITTLE BETTER INSTABILITY
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE 500-900 J/KG RANGE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO AND
MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE
AND UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL ROTATE NORTH. AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF
I-77 ARE IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AGAIN WHICH LOOKS
A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE SEVERE RISK FOR THIS EVENING.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ALOFT, A LOW SHOULD WOBBLE ENE'WARD FROM MID OH TO NEAR CENTRAL NY
BETWEEN DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, THE
ATTENDANT LOW SHOULD DEVELOP ENE'WARD FROM NEAR SOUTHEASTERN LOWER
MI TO NEAR THE UPPER SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AS THE ASSOCIATED
TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE LAKE ERIE REGION AND UPPER OH VALLEY. MOIST
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM'S WARM
CONVEYOR BELT WILL GENERATE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER OVER OUR REGION.
GIVEN THE SLOW-MOVING NATURE OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT EARLY THIS WEEK, THE LOW'S CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
STILL EXPECTED TO DEFORM THE AIR TEMPERATURE FIELD AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT (E.G. AT 850 MB) SIGNIFICANTLY AND ALLOW A SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR MASS TO OVERSPREAD OUR AREA FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH ON TUESDAY.
DESPITE PEEKS OF SUNSHINE, TUESDAY'S LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60'S. BY TUESDAY NIGHT, THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM'S CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT
DEFORMATION OF THE AIR TEMPERATURE FIELD AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL ALLOW SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR TO OVERSPREAD OUR CWA FROM THE NORTH
AND WEST. THIS WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO LIMITED NOCTURNAL COOLING AND SHOULD ALLOW OVERNIGHT
LOWS TO REACH THE UPPER 40'S TO MID 50'S AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT DUE
TO THE FOLLOWING: MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM CONVEYOR BELT; LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/MOIST
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW'S CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING DUE TO WEAK DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER AMIDST THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
NOTE: BY OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT, ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS
EAST OF ROUGHLY I-71 IN OUR CWA GIVEN THE PROJECTED TRACK OF THE LOW
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW ALOFT
SHOULD WOBBLE ENE'WARD FROM NEAR CENTRAL NY TO NEAR THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND BECOME VERTICALLY-STACKED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE LOW ONCE AGAIN AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES GENERALLY E'WARD
FROM THE UPPER SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. LINGERING ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS OVER NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA, ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM'S WARM CONVEYOR BELT, SHOULD EXIT GENERALLY
E'WARD BY MIDDAY. OTHERWISE PRIMARILY CYCLONIC NW'ERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR REGION AS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
FROM NORTHERN ON AND EVENTUALLY THE SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES DURING THE DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY THROUGH DAYBREAK THURSDAY TIME
FRAME. AT THE SURFACE, NET TROUGHING LINGERS IN OUR CWA AND A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP SE'WARD THROUGH OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOIST ASCENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT, AND
MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALOFT, AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS,
SHOULD TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. INTERVALS OF
SUNSHINE AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW
DAYTIME HIGHS TO REACH THE 60'S TO LOWER 70'S ON WEDNESDAY. WEAK LOW-
LEVEL CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO LOWS REACHING
THE MID 40'S TO LOWER 50'S AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ON THURSDAY, NW'ERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS OVER OUR REGION. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE'S AXIS SHOULD SWEEP SE'WARD
THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON DUE TO MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALOFT, AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH'S AXIS, AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/MOIST ASCENT
ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS PRECEDING THE TROUGH AXIS ALOFT. LATER
ON THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, STABILIZING SUBSIDENCE IS
EXPECTED TO PROMOTE FAIR WEATHER IN OUR CWA AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BEGINS TO BUILD FROM THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND VICINITY. CLEARING SKY AND CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL CAA ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS REACHING THE MID 50'S TO MID 60'S ON
THURSDAY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS REACHING MAINLY THE UPPER 30'S TO UPPER
40'S AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
CURRENT ODDS FAVOR FAIR WEATHER THIS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
BUILD GENERALLY FROM THE WEST AND AFFECT OUR REGION. WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CAA WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA ON THE SYNOPTIC-
SCALE AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EVENTUALLY MOVES E'WARD ACROSS OUR
REGION. ACCORDINGLY, LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60'S ON FRIDAY
SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 60'S TO MID
70'S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, RESPECTIVELY. SUFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING OF SURFACE AIR OVER LAND SURROUNDING RELATIVELY-COLD LAKE
ERIE AND A FAIRLY-WEAK SYNOPTIC MSLP GRADIENT MAY PERMIT LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS OF
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30'S TO UPPER 40'S
AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY LOWS IN THE MID 40'S
TO MID 50'S AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE MAIN AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THIS SUNDAY EVENING TAF
UPDATE IS THE VERY LOW CEILINGS ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG, SOME COULD BE DENSE UNDER 1SM ALL
SEVERAL TAF SITES LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS VARY GREATLY ACROSS THE AREA FROM VFR CEILINGS TO
LIFR CEILINGS. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE LOW STRATUS DECK
MAY BUILD DOWN TO THE SURFACE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT WITH A GOOD
SETUP FOR AREAS OF IFR FOG CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
AND TAF LOCATIONS. WE HAVE REFLECTED THIS LOWERING OF CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z OVERNIGHT. SOME LOCATIONS
MAY DROP RATHER QUICKLY AROUND 06Z OR SO. WE HAVE MENTIONED
EITHER PREVAILING 1/2SM FOG OR TEMPO GROUPS AT ALL TAF FORECAST
LOCATIONS 06Z THROUGH ROUGHLY 12Z MONDAY MORNING. AFTER 12Z, THE
FOG AND VISIBILITY WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MID TO LATE
MORNING. CEILINGS WILL LIFT UP TO MVFR TO VFR CATEGORY BY LATE
MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD
MONDAY EVENING.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND TONIGHT AND
MONDAY SPIRALING AROUND VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT
IS OVER OHIO. THERE COULD BE A FEW ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AT ANY SPECIFIC
TAF SITE IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT
AND AT TIMES VARIABLE BUT A GENERAL EAST OR NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
OF 3 TO 8 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NON-VFR ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
NEARSHORE U.S. WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RIPLEY. A TROUGH LINGERS
OVER LAKE ERIE FOR THE TIME BEING. THE PARENT LOW SHOULD WEAKEN
GRADUALLY AT IT MEANDERS NEAR THE MID OH VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY.
PRIMARILY NE'ERLY TO E'ERLY WINDS AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS THROUGH THIS
EARLY EVENING EASE GRADUALLY TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.
PRIMARILY NE'ERLY TO E'ERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS THEN PERSIST
THROUGH SUNSET MONDAY EVENING. WAVES AS LARGE AS 5 TO 10 FEET
THROUGH THIS EARLY EVENING SHOULD SUBSIDE GRADUALLY TO 3 FEET OR
LESS IN U.S. WATERS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.
THE WEAKENING LOW SHOULD WOBBLE N'WARD FROM THE MID OH VALLEY TO
SOUTHEASTERN LOWER MI ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW MAINLY NE'ERLY TO E'ERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS TO VEER
GRADUALLY TO SW'ERLY AS WAVES REMAIN 3 FEET OR LESS. THE LOW SHOULD
THEN TRACK ENE'WARD FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOWER MI TO NEAR SOUTHERN
QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO
SWEEP SE'WARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
WILL CAUSE SW'ERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS TO VEER TO N'ERLY AND
WAVES SHOULD REMAIN 3 FEET OR LESS. HOWEVER, OCCASIONAL 4 FOOTERS
ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT, A
RIDGE SHOULD BUILD FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND VICINITY THROUGH
FRIDAY. ACCORDINGLY, N'ERLY TO NE'ERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS
AND WAVES OF 3 FEET OR LESS ARE EXPECTED. OCCASIONAL 4 FOOTERS ARE
POSSIBLE.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ142>149.
SYNOPSIS...10
NEAR TERM...10/77
SHORT TERM...JASZKA
LONG TERM...JASZKA
AVIATION...77
MARINE...JASZKA
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