984
FXUS61 KCLE 051818
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
218 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TUESDAY AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS
NORTHEAST THROUGH REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY IS FAIRLY MODEST WITH ML CAPE STILL UNDER 500 J/KG.
STORMS HAVE EXHIBIT SOME ROTATION ALOFT AND WILL BE MONITORING
FOR INTENSIFICATION THIS AFTERNOON. FREEZING LEVELS ARE ON THE
LOW SIDE TODAY AT AROUND 7500 FEET SO HAIL IS POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH WIND IF WE CAN GET SOME STRONGER CORES TO DEVELOP. BETTER
FORCING FOR CONVECTION WILL ARRIVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES NORTH AROUND THE UPPER LOW CLOSER TO 6
PM. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35 TO LOCALLY 45 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE LOCAL AREA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA FOR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS
STORMS MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN BUT CAN NOT RULE
OUT A BRIEF TORNADO GIVEN THE BROADER SHEAR IN THE REGION. IN
ADDITION STORMS WILL ENCOUNTER BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW AS THE
APPROACH THE LAKE. STRONGER STORMS TONIGHT STILL LOOK FOCUSED IN
THE 4-10 PM TIME RANGE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LIKE A BROKEN RECORD, WE ARE ONCE AGAIN DISCUSSING THIS CUT-OFF
LOW THAT HAS BEEN IMPACTING US FOR WHAT FEELS LIKE FOREVER. AT
LEAST THE END IS IN SIGHT! ANYWAYS, VERTICALLY-STACKED LOW
LOCATED OVER IN/KY REMAINS THERE TODAY BEFORE IT MEANDERS
NORTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS OHIO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
CURRENTLY, A DRY SLOT NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER-LEVEL IS RESULTING
IN DRY AIR ALOFT FILTERING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST, PAIRED WITH
VERY MOIST LOW-LEVELS AND WE HAVE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
STRATUS/FOG AREAWIDE. IT'S BEEN CHALLENGING WHERE TO DISCERN
WHERE MORE PERSISTENT AND WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WILL BE. A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL OHIO THROUGH 10 AM WHERE OBSERVED 1/4 SM VISIBILITY HAS
BEEN MOST PERSISTENT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A PORTION OF THIS
WILL NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO OTHER COUNTIES.
FOG SHOULD CLEAR UP BY MID TO LATE MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOBE OF
VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE CUT-OFF LOW PROVIDES FORCING FOR
ASCENT. ADVECTION OF WARM, MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD
LEAD TO SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY MID-AFTERNOON, WITH
AROUND 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE ALONG AND EAST OF I-71. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OF AROUND 40 KNOTS MAY LEAD TO A FEW ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORM. A MESSY STORM MODE IS ANTICIPATED, THOUGH STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD LEAD TO A DISCRETE CELL OR TWO, AND IS
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR WEAK SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. ALL WEATHER
HAZARDS (STRONG WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND A WEAK, BRIEF TORNADO) WILL
BE ON THE TABLE IF WE ARE ABLE TO GET ANY ROTATING STORMS. CAMS
(SUCH AS THE HRRR AND NAM NEST) DO SHOW A UPDRAFT HELICITY
TRACKS, SO THIS WILL BE WORTH MONITORING. THE BIGGEST LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS
AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. SPC HAS A
MARGINAL RISK TO COVER THIS THREAT, AND IN GENERAL DON'T
ANTICIPATE ANY CHANGES TO THIS OUTLOOK. THE ONE CHANGE THAT I
COULD SEE HAPPENING IS THE ADDITION OF A 2% TORNADO OUTLOOK (IF
CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE DISCRETE CELLS WITH
HELICITY TRACKS).
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN TO LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO LOW POTENTIAL OF TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOWERS CLEAR OUT OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT, WITH RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING ALONG AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR. THIS
RAIN SHOULD EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS IT WRAPS CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE
NORTHEASTWARD-MOVING LOW.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO CHANGE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE CUTOFF LOW THAT HAS BEEN FLOATING OVER THE REGION
FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS FINALLY BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST. A FEW
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS MAY HANG AROUND FOR THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS
OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, BUT EXPECT POPS TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH ANY RAIN CHANCES FOCUSING INTO NE OH/NW PA WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (AROUND 20 PERCENT) WILL
DROP SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AS
LATE AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT MOVE SOUTH OVER THE REGION. THERE'S SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
MUCH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE; POPS MAY INCREASE IF MOISTURE TRENDS
HIGHER. ANY SHOWERS WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTH BY NO LATER THAN THURSDAY
EVENING AND DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPS
WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN COOLER DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE
50S AND LOWER 60S ON THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL MOST LIKELY BE
THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER 40S EXPECTED.
A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF INTERIOR NW PA MAY DIP
INTO THE UPPER 30S THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF NOW, DRY WEATHER IS FAVORED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HOWEVER, A FEW STRAY SHOWERS MAY PERIODICALLY SCRAPE
SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES AS AN UPPER LOW TAKES SHAPE JUST TO
THE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. THERE'S QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE
PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND SO POPS WILL LIKELY
CHANGE AS CONFIDENCE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN INCREASES IN THE
UPCOMING DAYS. HIGHS IN THE 60S ARE LIKELY FRIDAY WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S FOR THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY
NIGHT'S LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY NIGHT (LOW TO MID 40S WITH
UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN INTERIOR NW PA WITH WARMER TEMPS ALONG THE
LAKESHORE), BUT EXPECT A WARMER LOWS OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
CLUSTER NEAR YNG AT 18Z AND A FEW ISOLATED STORMS IN THE
VICINITY OF CLE/CAK INITIALLY. INSTABILITY IS FAIRLY MODEST
WITH ML CAPE STILL UNDER 500 J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
BETTER ORGANIZED AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED BETWEEN 21Z-02Z
AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES NORTHWEST AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNING ALOFT.
MOST TERMINALS ARE VFR THIS AFTERNOON ASIDE FROM A PATCH OF LOW
STRATUS HOLDING ON AT CLE WHICH SHOULD MIX OUT THROUGH 19Z. WILL
NEED TO UPDATE TAFS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO BETTER PINPOINT
PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND IFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO A
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS,
HAIL TO AROUND 1" IN DIAMETER.
PRECIPITATION WILL TEND TO DEPART TOWARDS 04Z EXCEPT AT TOL/
FDY WHERE RAIN MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT WHERE MOISTURE WRAPS ALL THE
WAY AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. ELSEWHERE, LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN STRATUS AND SOME REDUCED
VISIBILITIES FILLING IN OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...PERIODIC SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND
NON-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE SCATTERING OUT. NON-
VFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.
MARINE
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AND WAVES HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA SO HAVE ALLOWED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO
EXPIRE. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE START OF THE FORECAST AREA IS
VISIBILITY ON THE LAKE. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOW STRATUS AND/OR
PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL BASINS OF LAKE ERIE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
THERE'S STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW WIDESPREAD THIS DENSE FOG WILL
BE SO HAVE HELD OFF ON A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY, BUT WILL
CONTINUE MONITORING LAKESHORE OBSERVATIONS AND WEBCAMS AND MAY NEED
TO CONSIDER AN ADVISORY WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ANY FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING.
NORTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 12 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE FLOW SHIFTS TO THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
TO AROUND 15 KNOTS IN THE WESTERN BASIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH NORTHEAST WINDS TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. PERIODIC 4 FOOTERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, HOWEVER PREVAILING WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SAUNDERS
NEAR TERM...10/SAUNDERS
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...10
MARINE...15
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