192
FXUS61 KCLE 052057
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
457 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY THEN
DEPART TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM WEST VIRGINIA TO NORTHEAST
OHIO. WE HAD ONE ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY THIS AFTERNOON MOVE
OUT OF PENNSYLVANIA ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO. A MORE VIGOROUS ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE
ROTATES NORTH AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL PIVOTS NORTH.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN OHIO UNTIL 9 PM TONIGHT. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE COLD
POOL ALOFT AND LOW FREEZING LEVELS, LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORMS. DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN A CONCERN AS WELL
AND SOME STORMS HAVE ALSO EXHIBITED SOME WEAK ROTATION.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OHIO BUT
DROP OFF QUICKLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST. THE WATCH DOES NOT
EXTEND TO THE LAKESHORE GIVEN THE LOWER INSTABILITY AND SOME CIN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. HOWEVER DEWPOINTS HAVE ALSO MIXED OUT
SOME ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OHIO AND ML CAPE ONLY PEAKS AROUND 500
J/KG AT 4 PM. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KNOTS WILL HELP TO
MAKE UP FOR WHAT WE LACK IN INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. SO FAR WE HAVE RECEIVED JUST A COUPLE HAIL REPORTS
RANGING FROM HALF INCH TO AN INCH. THE OTHER CONCERN FOR THIS
EVENING IS HEAVY RAIN AS STORMS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING EFFICIENT
RAINFALL WITH TRAINING POSSIBLE. PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA HAVE HAD BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN
BETWEEN LAST NIGHT AND THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY DISSIPATE AND EXIT NORTH BY
MIDNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE IN NW OHIO WHERE MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO WRAP BACK AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF UPPER LEVEL LOW.
RAIN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THEN WRAPS EAST ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER QUARTER TO A
HALF INCH OF RAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA BUT SHOWERS ARE LIKELY EVERYWHERE. TUESDAY WILL BE
COOLER GIVEN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND CLOUDS. FINALLY ON TUESDAY
NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS EAST INTO NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA. SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AND
CONDITIONS WILL START TO DRY OUT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
DURING WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A NEARLY VERTICALLY-
STACKED LOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ENE'WARD
FROM THE UPPER SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND VICINITY TOWARD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. IN ADDITION, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH OUR REGION AS IT MOVES SE'WARD FROM NORTHERN ON TO NEAR THE
SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW TRACK
IS STILL EXPECTED TO ALLOW A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO SWEEP SE'WARD
ACROSS OUR CWA ON WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, A SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/MOIST ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT AND MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
IN NORTHERN OH AND NW PA ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
INTERVALS OF SUNSHINE AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE 60'S TO LOWER 70'S LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW-LEVEL CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO LOWS REACHING THE MID 40'S TO LOWER 50'S AROUND
DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO APPROACH OUR
CWA FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY MORNING. ITS AXIS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DRIFT SE'WARD ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NEAR A ERIE,
PA TO MOUNT VERNON, OH LINE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE AMIDST MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AXIS ALOFT. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS, A RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS
SLOWLY FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE, THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH DAYBREAK FRIDAY. CONTINUED WEAK LOW-
LEVEL CAA WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE MID
50'S TO LOWER 60'S LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON, DESPITE INTERVALS OF
SUNSHINE, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS REACHING THE 40'S AROUND DAYBREAK
FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ON FRIDAY, THE ABOVE-MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO
EXIT SE'WARD FROM THE REST OF OUR REGION BY NIGHTFALL. VERY ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE AMIDST MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF
THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS ALOFT. OTHERWISE, THE ABOVE-MENTIONED
RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR REGION AS
THE CORE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES FROM NEAR THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TO NEAR LAKE ERIE AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA, AND THE CORE OF
THE RIDGE ALOFT MOVES FROM NEAR THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES TO NEAR LAKE ERIE AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA.
STABILIZING SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANYING THE RIDGE WILL PROMOTE MAINLY
FAIR WEATHER IN OUR REGION. HOWEVER, ON SATURDAY, A WEAKENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY RIPPLE GENERALLY E'WARD THROUGH THE RIDGE ALOFT
AND ALLOW THE ATTENDANT/WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH AXIS TO REACH NW OH
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF SATURDAY BEFORE THE SURFACE TROUGH
AXIS DISSIPATES SOON THEREAFTER. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/MOIST ASCENT
ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS MAY ALLOW VERY ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
TO IMPACT NW OH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE EXPECTED WEATHER PATTERN EVOLUTION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
SHOULD ALLOW WEAK LOW-LEVEL CAA ON FRIDAY TO TRANSITION TO WAA BY
THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AND MONDAY. LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID
50'S TO MID 60'S ON FRIDAY SHOULD MODERATE TO LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60'S TO UPPER 70'S ON MONDAY. A WEAK SYNOPTIC MSLP
GRADIENT AND SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING OF SURFACE AIR OVER LAND
SURROUNDING RELATIVELY-COLD LAKE ERIE SHOULD PERMIT LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS ON
SATURDAY, AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
CLUSTER NEAR YNG AT 18Z AND A FEW ISOLATED STORMS IN THE
VICINITY OF CLE/CAK INITIALLY. INSTABILITY IS FAIRLY MODEST
WITH ML CAPE STILL UNDER 500 J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
BETTER ORGANIZED AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED BETWEEN 21Z-02Z
AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES NORTHWEST AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNING ALOFT.
MOST TERMINALS ARE VFR THIS AFTERNOON ASIDE FROM A PATCH OF LOW
STRATUS HOLDING ON AT CLE WHICH SHOULD MIX OUT THROUGH 19Z. WILL
NEED TO UPDATE TAFS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO BETTER PINPOINT
PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND IFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO A
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS,
HAIL TO AROUND 1" IN DIAMETER.
PRECIPITATION WILL TEND TO DEPART TOWARDS 04Z EXCEPT AT TOL/
FDY WHERE RAIN MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT WHERE MOISTURE WRAPS ALL THE
WAY AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. ELSEWHERE, LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN STRATUS AND SOME REDUCED
VISIBILITIES FILLING IN OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...PERIODIC SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND
NON-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE SCATTERING OUT. NON-
VFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.
MARINE
A TROUGH LINGERS OVER LAKE ERIE FOR THE TIME BEING. AFTER MEANDERING
IN THE MID OH VALLEY, THE PARENT LOW SHOULD WOBBLE N'WARD TO NEAR
SOUTHEASTERN LOWER MI TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. PRIMARILY NE'ERLY TO
E'ERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED
TO VEER TO S'ERLY TO SW'ERLY AND REMAIN AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WAVES REMAIN 3 FEET OR LESS.
NOTE: LOCALIZED, LINGERING FOG IS PRESENT OVER SOUTHWESTERN AND
CENTRAL LAKE ERIE AS OF 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON. FOG SHOULD PERSIST
AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS SUFFICIENT NOCTURNAL COOLING
ALLOWS A SURFACE-BASED LAYER OF AIR TO COOL TO SUPERSATURATION OVER
A LARGER PORTION OF THE LAKE. DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF WEDNESDAY
MORNING, FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED S'ERLY TO
SW'ERLY WINDS FRESHEN OVER LAKE ERIE AND CAUSE THE FOG TO MIX
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH UNSATURATED AIR. GIVEN FOG IS LOCALIZED AS OF 4
PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON AND THE AMOUNT OF FOG EXPANSION IS UNCERTAIN,
REFRAINED FROM REISSUING A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY, BUT TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND FORECAST MODEL DATA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO WOBBLE ENE'WARD FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOWER
MI TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP SE'WARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE WILL CAUSE S'ERLY
TO SW'ERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS TO VEER TO NW'ERLY TO N'ERLY.
WAVES SHOULD REMAIN 3 FEET OR LESS. HOWEVER, OCCASIONAL 4 FOOTERS
ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT, A
RIDGE SHOULD BUILD FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND VICINITY THROUGH
SATURDAY. ACCORDINGLY, NW'ERLY TO NE'ERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS
AND WAVES OF 3 FEET OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
OCCASIONAL 4 FOOTERS ARE POSSIBLE. ON SATURDAY, WINDS AROUND 5 TO 15
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AS THE MSLP
GRADIENT WEAKENS. THESE WINDS SHOULD TREND ONSHORE DURING THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING DUE TO LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. WAVES
OF 3 FEET OR LESS ARE FORECAST.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...10
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...JASZKA
LONG TERM...JASZKA
AVIATION...10
MARINE...JASZKA
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