119
FXUS61 KCLE 061950
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
350 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FINALLY EXITS EAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO
END THE WEEK AND START THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WE'VE BEEN TRACKING FOR MANY DAYS IS
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL LAKE ERIE/FAR NORTHEAST OH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, AND IS DRIFTING EAST. JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW, SOME
HEATING AND WEAK DESTABILIZATION HAS ALLOWED SCATTERED LOW-
TOPPED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING, THOUGH WITH NO SEVERE
THREAT. A BATCH OF STEADIER RAIN IS WRAPPING INTO NORTHWEST AND
CENTRAL OH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALL EXIT TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LEAVE A DRY, PLEASANT WEDNESDAY FOR
A NICE CHANGE. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD MAINLY BE A
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE, THOUGH SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
MAINLY BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST OH
EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE, PERHAPS CLIPPING THE EASTERN LAKESHORE.
JUST HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN FOR NOW GIVEN POOR MODEL AGREEMENT.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN PA TO THE MID 70S IN
NORTHWEST OH. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SETTLE INTO THE 40S.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT IF ANY CLEARING
DEVELOPS, GIVEN RELATIVELY LIGHT FLOW AND LOW-LEVELS THAT ARE
ALREADY NEAR SATURATION. CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS
QUITE LOW AS CONFIDENCE IN CLEARING IS LOW AND THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT BREEZE, THOUGH DID ADD SOME FOG TO THE FORECAST AS WOULD
BE SURPRISED IF THERE'S NONE AT ALL. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN
SOME FOG APPEARS TO BE OVER AND DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AS WINDS
TURN ONSHORE OFF THE CHILLY WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
THE MESSY OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE AREA. TRAILING MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGING ACROSS LAKE ERIE NORTH TO SOUTH THURSDAY
BRINGS THE LAST OF A ROUND OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE CWA, LIKELY
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES THROUGH TO THE SOUTHERN CWA BORDER. HIGH
PRESSURE AND NORTHERLY WINDS BUILD IN AS THE TROUGH CUTS OFF OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, MAKING THURSDAY A COOLER DAY IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LARGELY DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
PERIOD WHILE THE 500MB HEIGHTS AND 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE SLOW TO
RECOVER. IN THE MEANTIME, BROAD SCALE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS, BUT A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES INCREASES INTO THE WEEKEND ON THE SLOWER SIDE
AS THE RIDGE WILL STRUGGLE TO PUSH EASTWARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY, DRY, WITH A STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN ITS
WAKE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
DESPITE THE UPPER LOW CUTOFF OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD, SOME RIDGING WILL BE ABLE TO BUILD
IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST, AND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES WARMER ON SUNDAY,
AND THEN ONCE AGAIN BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE ALSO DRIFTS TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ALLOWING FOR
WEAK RETURN/SOUTHERLY FLOW AIDING IN THIS PROCESS. LONG TERM
FORECAST IS LARGELY DRY UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN HINTS OF THE MOISTURE
CREEP NORTHWARD AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS INTO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LIGHT TO MODERATE STRATIFORM RAIN IS IMPACTING LOCATIONS FROM
APPROXIMATELY TDZ-BJJ-PHD POINTS WEST, WITH MVFR VSBY AND LOW
MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS COMMON. FARTHER EAST/NORTHEAST, SCATTERED
SHOWERS (CAPABLE OF BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS TO LOCALLY IFR) ARE
ONGOING AMID A MIX OF HIGH MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS. HAVE LOWER
CEILINGS SPREADING INTO CLE, CAK, AND YNG THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. THERE MAY A BRIEF A WINDOW WHERE CEILINGS TRY
SCATTERING OUT THIS EVENING BEHIND THE STEADIER RAIN, ESPECIALLY
AT TOL AND FDY. HOWEVER, WITH VERY MOIST LOW-LEVELS ANY
CLEARING WOULD QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO LOWER STRATUS AND FOG/MIST
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE
MAGNITUDE OF FOG/MIST DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN, THOUGH THERE IS
RELATIVELY HIGHER CONFIDENCE OVER AND JUST SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ERIE ACROSS NORTHEAST OH AS WINDS GRADUALLY TURN ONSHORE EARLY
WEDNESDAY. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW WIDESPREAD MORE DENSE FOG
WILL BE, WILL LEAVE IT TO FUTURE CYCLES TO DETERMINE WHEN/WHERE
LOWER VSBY MAY BE NEEDED AS A PREVAILING GROUP OR TEMPO. ALL
SHOULD BOUNCE BACK TO VFR THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS ANY FOG
DISSIPATES AND STRATUS SCATTER OUT AFTER SUNRISE.
WINDS RANGE FROM WEST ACROSS NORTHWEST OH TO SOUTH ACROSS
NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA AT 5 TO 12KT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AT 3 TO 7KT, AND THEN
PERSIST OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10KT WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CEILINGS MAY ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MARINE
VARIABLE WINDS UNDER 15KTS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT COMES ACROSS LAKE ERIE FROM THE NORTH LATER IN THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. WINDS NORTHERLY 15-20KTS FOR THE WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL BASINS AND WAVE HEIGHTS INCREASING TO 2-4FT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, GRADUALLY DECREASING TO 1-3FT FRIDAY
BUT UNDER CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15KTS. WINDS HIGHLY VARIABLE
IN TERMS OF DIRECTION INTO THE WEEKEND 10-15KTS KEEPS WAVES 1-3FT
THROUGH THAT PERIOD.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SULLIVAN
NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...26
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