527
FXUS61 KCLE 070606
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
206 AM EDT WED MAY 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FINALLY EXITS EAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO
END THE WEEK AND START THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL GIVE WAY TO RIDGING
LATER TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT
AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE MOSTLY 2 DEGREES OR LESS. WHILE
CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, THEY WILL TEND TO SCATTER
SOME OVERNIGHT AND ANY BREAKS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG QUICKLY
FORMING. OR LOW STRATUS WILL EXPAND AND LOWER OVERNIGHT. FOG
MAY BE DENSE, ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA. WE WILL
MONITOR CONDITIONS AND ISSUE AS NEEDED.
IN ADDITION, SEVERAL RIVERS CONTINUE TO RISE INTO ACTION WITH A
FEW REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING. THE FINDLAY ASOS
REPORTED 1.41 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE LAST 24 HOURS BUT NO
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WE'VE BEEN
TRACKING FOR MANY DAYS IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL LAKE ERIE/FAR
NORTHEAST OH LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AND IS DRIFTING EAST. JUST
AHEAD OF THE LOW, SOME HEATING AND WEAK DESTABILIZATION HAS
ALLOWED SCATTERED LOW- TOPPED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING, THOUGH
WITH NO SEVERE THREAT. A BATCH OF STEADIER RAIN IS WRAPPING
INTO NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL OH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALL EXIT TO
THE EAST/SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LEAVE A DRY,
PLEASANT WEDNESDAY FOR A NICE CHANGE. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD MAINLY BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE, THOUGH SOME SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND MAINLY BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST OH EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE, PERHAPS CLIPPING
THE EASTERN LAKESHORE. JUST HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN FOR NOW GIVEN
POOR MODEL AGREEMENT.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN PA TO THE MID 70S IN
NORTHWEST OH. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SETTLE INTO THE 40S.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT IF ANY CLEARING
DEVELOPS, GIVEN RELATIVELY LIGHT FLOW AND LOW-LEVELS THAT ARE
ALREADY NEAR SATURATION. CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS
QUITE LOW AS CONFIDENCE IN CLEARING IS LOW AND THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT BREEZE, THOUGH DID ADD SOME FOG TO THE FORECAST AS WOULD
BE SURPRISED IF THERE'S NONE AT ALL. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN
SOME FOG APPEARS TO BE OVER AND DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AS WINDS
TURN ONSHORE OFF THE CHILLY WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
THE MESSY OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE AREA. TRAILING MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGING ACROSS LAKE ERIE NORTH TO SOUTH THURSDAY
BRINGS THE LAST OF A ROUND OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE CWA, LIKELY
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES THROUGH TO THE SOUTHERN CWA BORDER. HIGH
PRESSURE AND NORTHERLY WINDS BUILD IN AS THE TROUGH CUTS OFF OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, MAKING THURSDAY A COOLER DAY IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LARGELY DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
PERIOD WHILE THE 500MB HEIGHTS AND 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE SLOW TO
RECOVER. IN THE MEANTIME, BROAD SCALE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS, BUT A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES INCREASES INTO THE WEEKEND ON THE SLOWER SIDE
AS THE RIDGE WILL STRUGGLE TO PUSH EASTWARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY, DRY, WITH A STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN ITS
WAKE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
DESPITE THE UPPER LOW CUTOFF OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD, SOME RIDGING WILL BE ABLE TO BUILD
IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST, AND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES WARMER ON SUNDAY,
AND THEN ONCE AGAIN BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE ALSO DRIFTS TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ALLOWING FOR
WEAK RETURN/SOUTHERLY FLOW AIDING IN THIS PROCESS. LONG TERM
FORECAST IS LARGELY DRY UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN HINTS OF THE MOISTURE
CREEP NORTHWARD AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS INTO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
CONDITIONS ARE WIDELY VARIABLE TO START THE 06Z TAFS, WITH
ANYWHERE FROM CLEAR SKIES ALL WAY DOWN TO 1/4SM FOG. CONDITIONS
WILL PROBABLY TEND TO REMAIN PRETTY VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT,
THOUGH GENERALLY TRENDING TOWARDS WORSENING CONDITIONS WITH IFR
AND LIFR WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BECOMING MORE COMMON AS
WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY PRIMARILY LIES WITH
THE EXTENT OF LIFR CONDITIONS AND DETERMINATION BETWEEN FOG VS.
LOW STRATUS.
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THAT
MAY BE SOMEWHAT SHORT-LIVED AS MVFR CEILINGS WITH PATCHY IFR
BUILDS BACK IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH
LATE TONIGHT. CONDITIONS COULD REMAIN VFR OUT WEST NEAR
KTOL/KFDY, OR LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS COULD BE A BIT MORE PATCHY.
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS AND THEN GENERALLY DIRECTED AWAY FROM LAKE ERIE
TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE A COLD FRONT.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CEILINGS MAY ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MARINE
VARIABLE WINDS UNDER 15KTS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT COMES ACROSS LAKE ERIE FROM THE NORTH LATER IN THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. WINDS NORTHERLY 15-20KTS FOR THE WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL BASINS AND WAVE HEIGHTS INCREASING TO 2-4FT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, GRADUALLY DECREASING TO 1-3FT FRIDAY
BUT UNDER CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15KTS. WINDS HIGHLY VARIABLE
IN TERMS OF DIRECTION INTO THE WEEKEND 10-15KTS KEEPS WAVES 1-3FT
THROUGH THAT PERIOD.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SULLIVAN
NEAR TERM...10/SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...SAUNDERS
MARINE...26
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