485
FXUS61 KCLE 071349
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
949 AM EDT WED MAY 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN OVERHEAD BEFORE A COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN TO END THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
9:30 AM UPDATE...
FURTHER INCREASED CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING AS STRATUS AND AREAS
OF FOG REMAIN STUBBORN BELOW AN INVERSION. THIS COMBINED WITH
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE SUB 50 DEGREE LAKE WATER WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS FAIRLY COOL AGAIN TODAY. AT THIS TIME, NO CHANGES TO
HIGH TEMPERATURES, BUT THIS WILL BE MONITORED.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AT AND BELOW 925 MB IS TRAPPED BELOW A
TEMPERATURE INVERSION, RESULTING IN LOW STRATUS LINGERING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. BREAKS IN STRATUS HAS LED TO PATCHY
DENSE FOG, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST OHIO. PATCHY FOG EXPECTED TO
REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF I-71. IT'S LESS CERTAIN
ELSEWHERE, THOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING OVER LAKE ERIE AND SPREADING INLAND TO SOME LAKESHORE
COMMUNITIES IN NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN OVERFORECASTING THE FOG OVER LAKE ERIE THAT
PAST FEW DAYS, SO AT THIS POINT, THE THOUGHT IS THAT IT'S
DOUBTFUL.
CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY SCATTER OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN, AND TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S. LAKESHORE AREAS EAST OF CLEVELAND COULD STRUGGLE TO
WARM UP WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW 60S.
A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WE'LL SEE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE CHILLIER SIDE WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 40S AND DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. CLOUDS
GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
UPPER TROUGH WILL CUT OFF INTO A LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A FEW STRAY SHOWERS MAY GRAZE INTERIOR
NW PA AND PERHAPS MAHONING COUNTY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT ODDS
FAVOR DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY, BUT THE MID-LEVELS WILL LIKELY BE TOO DRY TO
WARRANT ANY RAIN CHANCES AT THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST CYCLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AS UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S FRIDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
ON SATURDAY. MAX TEMPS MAY STAY IN THE COOLER LOW TO MID 60S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE OF NE OH/NW PA SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE QUITE CHILLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD UPPER
40S AND LOWER 40S EXPECTED. CLOUD COVER MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH FOR
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SO THE FROST POTENTIAL IS SOMEWHAT LOW
AT THIS POINT. SATURDAY NIGHT'S LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH LOWER
50S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
OHIO.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY
BEFORE MOIST RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AS THE HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA MONDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE (ROUGHLY 20 TO 30
PERCENT) POPS RETURN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MOISTURE MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY NIGHT, BUT THE HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD WILL ARRIVE AS
AN UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY, HOWEVER LOCATIONS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE WILL LIKELY BE IN THE COOLER 60S. TEMPS WILL
RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
CONDITIONS ARE VARIABLE WITH LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG
CONTRIBUTING TO MVFR, IFR, AND LIFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS ARE
AT THE WORST RIGHT NOW AND SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH THIS MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND WARMING TEMPERATURES LEAD TO A
MIXING BOUNDARY LAYER AND SCATTERING OF CLOUD COVER.
IMPROVED CONDITIONS MAY BE SOMEWHAT SHORT-LIVED AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, WITH LOW STRATUS ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR CEILINGS OF CLOUD DECK, AND COULD BE ANYWHERE AS
HIGH AS ~2KFT TO AS LOW AS 200-400 FT. FOR NOW, WENT SOMEWHERE
IN THE MIDDLE. IT'S POSSIBLE CONDITIONS COULD REMAIN VFR OUT
WEST NEAR KTOL/KFDY, OR LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS COULD BE A BIT
MORE PATCHY.
MOST OF THE AREA IS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO START OFF THE MORNING.
WINDS BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND
THEN GENERALLY BECOME DIRECTED AWAY FROM LAKE ERIE TONIGHT WITH
THE PASSAGE A COLD FRONT.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY. OTHERWISE, VFR IS
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
MARINE
WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AND 10 KNOTS OR LESS THIS MORNING BEFORE
BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE
FAR EASTERN BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE TONIGHT WITH WIND
SPEEDS IN THE WESTERN BASIN REACHING 15 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES IN THIS
PORTION OF THE LAKE MAY APPROACH 4 FEET TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING, HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT THE ISSUANCE
OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. BY THURSDAY MORNING,
NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE
WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF WINDS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN BASIN THURSDAY EVENING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BY NO LATER THAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND A LAKE BREEZE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE A BIT ON
SATURDAY, BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS. NORTHEAST WINDS TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LAKE ON SUNDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LEZ142>148-162>168.
SYNOPSIS...SAUNDERS
NEAR TERM...GARUCKAS/SAUNDERS
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...SAUNDERS
MARINE...15
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