777
FXUS61 KCLE 071952
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
352 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
THURSDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
THE WEATHER PATTERN IS FINALLY IMPROVING THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BEHIND THE EXITING MID/UPPER CLOSED LOW THAT IS NOW LOCATED OVER NEW
ENGLAND. THIS HAS ALLOWED DRIER AIR TO FILTER SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION, AND THE SCATTERING OUT OF THE CLOUDS HAS FINALLY ENCOURAGED
SUFFICIENT MIXING TO BURN OFF THE LINGERING FOG NEAR LAKE ERIE.
TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED NICELY TO THE SUNSHINE, RISING INTO THE
UPPER 60S IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR UPPER 50S LINGERING NEAR THE
LAKESHORE. THIS WILL SET UP A PLEASANT EVENING.
MOVING INTO TONIGHT, A MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH, SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR LOOPS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON, WILL DROP ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AS THE OLD UPPER LOW LIFTS TOWARD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH MOISTURE TO TAP
INTO, BUT SOME MID-LEVEL PVA WILL SQUEEZE OUT SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
SLOWLY NORTH TO SOUTH WITH THE FRONT, BUT THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AGAIN. OTHERWISE, WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP OUT EAST LATE TONIGHT IN INTERIOR NE OHIO AND
NW PA AND OVER THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS GIVEN THE LINGERING INVERSION
AND WET GROUND. KEPT THIS LIMITED IN COVERAGE WITH THE CLOUDS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY STAY IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S.
ANY SHOWERS WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. OVERCAST SKIES WILL LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON, BUT THIS SHOULD ERODE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE DRIER
AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THURSDAY, EVEN
WITH THE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE, GIVEN THE CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE AND
TROUGH ALOFT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S NEAR THE
LAKESHORE TO THE LOW 60S INLAND. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SET UP STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING, SO TRENDED
COOLER WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S EXPECTED.
ISOLATED COLDER SPOTS ARE POSSIBLE IN FAR NE OHIO AND NW PA, SO WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR FROST.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
DEPARTING CUTOFF LOW TO THE EAST TAKES THE MINIMAL LEFTOVER POPS IN
THE FAR EASTERN ZONES WITH IT ON FRIDAY, SETTING UP THE REMAINDER OF
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD WITH A DRY FORECAST. MEANWHILE,
ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW WILL BE SETTING UP OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, RELEVANT TO OUR CWA BECAUSE OF A BROAD SCALE RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS WOULD NORMALLY REPRESENT A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND AS THE RIDGE SPREADS EASTWARD, BUT THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL KEEP IT WEST, AND WILL ALSO STIFLE THE 500MB
HEIGHT/850MB TEMPERATURE INCREASES THAT MIGHT OTHERWISE OCCUR. SOME
WEAK RIDGING WILL MANAGE TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES,
BUT THE KEY FEATURE WILL BE THE DRY CONDITIONS AND ONLY GRADUAL
WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH AIRMASS MODIFICATION.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SLOWLY MEANDER
NORTH NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, BRINGING ITS LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH IT. POPS RETURN TO THE FOLD AFTER MONDAY OR SO, LIKELY
SCATTERED IN NATURE, WITH THUNDER EXPECTED DURING THE HEATING HOURS
WITH A RELATIVE COLD POOL ALOFT. TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S, THOUGH
THESE MAY COME DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION IN FUTURE
FORECAST RUNS.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
DRIER AIR IS FINALLY WORKING INTO THE REGION, ALLOWING CIGS TO
SCATTER OUT TO VFR. LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG AT KERI
SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. THE QUIETER AVIATION
CONDITIONS WILL UNFORTUNATELY NOT LAST VERY LONG AS A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY SAGS ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS WITH CIGS GRADUALLY
FALLING BACK TO MVFR AS WELL AS SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS.
HOWEVER, BEFORE THE FRONTAL CLOUDS, PATCHY FOG WILL TRY TO
DEVELOP AGAIN BRINGING FURTHER REDUCTIONS TO CIGS AND VIS. THIS
WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS LAST NIGHT, AND CONDITIONS ARE
TRENDING TOWARD LESS FOG THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, BUT KEPT
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AT KMFD,
KCAK, KYNG, AND KERI SINCE THESE TERMINALS ARE MORE PRONE TO FOG
AND THERE IS GREATER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW THE INVERSION.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL TURN MORE NE AT 5-10 KNOTS THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT, WITH NE WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS CONTINUING THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
MARINE
A COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE LATER
THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT WITH WINDS INCREASING OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN TO 15-20KTS OUT OF THE NORTH. WAVE HEIGHTS
INCREASE AS WELL TO 2-4FT, LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY THE SHORTER FETCH
ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE LAKE. WINDS BECOME NORTHEASTERLY THURSDAY
10-20KTS AND WILL SEE THE WAVE HEIGHTS INCREASE TO 2-4FT NOW FURTHER
EAST ALONG THE NEARSHORE WATERS TO RIPLEY NY. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH 1-3FT BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE INTO THE WEEKEND, WAVES LESS THAN 2FT.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GARUCKAS
NEAR TERM...GARUCKAS
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...GARUCKAS
MARINE...26
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