754
FXUS61 KCLE 082003
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
403 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AS A COLD FRONT EXITS THIS EVENING. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS
THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA OF STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
THE COLD FRONT IS ROUGHLY FROM MEADVILLE TO FINDLAY AS OF 1930Z
AND WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AS THE
ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY CLEAR
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER JET SUPPORT DEPART. INSTABILITY REMAINS VERY
LIMITED DUE TO THE COOL SURFACE TEMPS AND LACK OF MOISTURE, WITH
AROUND 100 JOULES OF ELEVATED MUCAPE BEING DRIVEN BY THE COLD
POOL ALOFT DIPPING INTO THE REGION. THEREFORE, ANY THUNDER WILL
REMAIN VERY ISOLATED AS THE BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST, WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING LESS THAN
0.10 INCH OF RAIN.
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THAT IS ELONGATED
FROM QUEBEC TO WISCONSIN WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AND REMAIN LARGELY IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
COMBINED WITH THE UNSEASONABLY DEEP MID/UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COOL CONDITIONS,
WITH TEMPERATURES A SOLID 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND N TO NE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION IN RESPONSE TO THE MID/UPPER TROUGH TONIGHT AND
SLOWLY MOVING UP THE EAST COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL THROW SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO FAR NE OHIO AND NW
PA AT TIMES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, BUT ALL OF THE PRECIP WILL
REMAIN EAST OF THE REGION GIVEN THE ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN PLACE.
HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FRIDAY, WITH MID
50S IN NW PA. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD STAY MILD ENOUGH TO AVOID
FROST GIVEN LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE NE AREAS AND WINDS STAYING
UP, WITH UPPER 30S TO MID 40S EXPECTED. HOWEVER, LIGHTER WINDS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND ANY CLOUDS FINALLY EXITING NW PA WILL SET UP A
GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SOME FROST IN INTERIOR NE OHIO AND NW PA.
LOWS SHOULD GET INTO THE UPPER 30S IN MOST INLAND AREAS FRIDAY
NIGHT, WITH MID 30S POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS, US 30
CORRIDOR, AND INTERIOR NE OHIO AND NW PA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD APPEARS QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ENTERING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER
ACROSS THE REGION TOWARD NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY COOLER NEAR LAKE ERIE WITH WINDS OFF
THE COLDER LAKE, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ADVANCING TO THE EAST AND WARMER RETURN FLOW ENTERING THE AREA AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ENTER WITH
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY AND SUPPORT SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA AND HAVE POPS UP TO MID-RANGE
CHANCE TO LIKELY. THE UPPER LOW WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO TRAVERSE THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND SOME SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
PERSIST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM BUT COULD SEE THE FORECAST
HIGHS GET LOWER WITH TIME, DEPENDING ON CLOUD AND RAIN COVERAGE FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. THE RAIN IS DONE
AT KTOL AND KERI, BUT EXPECT SHOWERS TO AFFECT KFDY AND KCLE FOR
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO AND KMFD, KCAK, AND KYNG THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. MAINLY MVFR CIGS (OCCASIONAL IFR) WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE BY
21-23Z. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL THEN MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR
CONDITIONS.
NE WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST TO
20-25 KNOTS BEFORE DECREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
MARINE
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A SUBTLE
TROUGH WILL ENTER FOR SATURDAY AND DISRUPT FLOW FOR A BIT BUT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REENTER FOR THE WEEKEND AND NORTH FLOW WILL RETURN
ACROSS THE LAKE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST FOR MONDAY AND A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE LAKE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO OFFSHORE FLOW,
EVENTUALLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. MARINE HEADLINES ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GARUCKAS
NEAR TERM...GARUCKAS
SHORT TERM...SEFCOVIC
LONG TERM...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...GARUCKAS
MARINE...SEFCOVIC
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