829
FXUS61 KCLE 090019
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
819 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AS A COLD FRONT EXITS THIS EVENING. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS
THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA OF STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT THROUGH 11 PM OR
SO. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S IN
BOTH NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT BUT
ENOUGH MIXING IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT ANYTHING MORE THAN A LITTLE
PATCHY FROST IN JUST THE VERY COOLEST SPOTS. WE HOLD ONTO A GOOD
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS MICHIGAN
AND LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT IS ROUGHLY FROM MEADVILLE TO FINDLAY AS OF 1930Z
AND WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AS THE
ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY CLEAR
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER JET SUPPORT DEPART. INSTABILITY REMAINS VERY
LIMITED DUE TO THE COOL SURFACE TEMPS AND LACK OF MOISTURE, WITH
AROUND 100 JOULES OF ELEVATED MUCAPE BEING DRIVEN BY THE COLD
POOL ALOFT DIPPING INTO THE REGION. THEREFORE, ANY THUNDER WILL
REMAIN VERY ISOLATED AS THE BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST, WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING LESS THAN
0.10 INCH OF RAIN.
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THAT IS ELONGATED
FROM QUEBEC TO WISCONSIN WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AND REMAIN LARGELY IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
COMBINED WITH THE UNSEASONABLY DEEP MID/UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COOL CONDITIONS,
WITH TEMPERATURES A SOLID 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND N TO NE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION IN RESPONSE TO THE MID/UPPER TROUGH TONIGHT AND
SLOWLY MOVING UP THE EAST COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL THROW SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO FAR NE OHIO AND NW
PA AT TIMES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, BUT ALL OF THE PRECIP WILL
REMAIN EAST OF THE REGION GIVEN THE ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN PLACE.
HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FRIDAY, WITH MID
50S IN NW PA. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD STAY MILD ENOUGH TO AVOID
FROST GIVEN LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE NE AREAS AND WINDS STAYING
UP, WITH UPPER 30S TO MID 40S EXPECTED. HOWEVER, LIGHTER WINDS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND ANY CLOUDS FINALLY EXITING NW PA WILL SET UP A
GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SOME FROST IN INTERIOR NE OHIO AND NW PA.
LOWS SHOULD GET INTO THE UPPER 30S IN MOST INLAND AREAS FRIDAY
NIGHT, WITH MID 30S POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS, US 30
CORRIDOR, AND INTERIOR NE OHIO AND NW PA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD APPEARS QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ENTERING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER
ACROSS THE REGION TOWARD NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY COOLER NEAR LAKE ERIE WITH WINDS OFF
THE COLDER LAKE, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ADVANCING TO THE EAST AND WARMER RETURN FLOW ENTERING THE AREA AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ENTER WITH
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY AND SUPPORT SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA AND HAVE POPS UP TO MID-RANGE
CHANCE TO LIKELY. THE UPPER LOW WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO TRAVERSE THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND SOME SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
PERSIST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM BUT COULD SEE THE FORECAST
HIGHS GET LOWER WITH TIME, DEPENDING ON CLOUD AND RAIN COVERAGE FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MVFR CLOUDS REMAIN IN SOME AREAS THIS EVENING BUT WILL SCATTER
OUT THROUGH 03Z. SUFFICIENT MIXING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TO
PREVENT FOG FORMATION. HIGH PRESSURE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL
BUILD SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
CONTINUED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 5-12 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY.
MARINE
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A SUBTLE
TROUGH WILL ENTER FOR SATURDAY AND DISRUPT FLOW FOR A BIT BUT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REENTER FOR THE WEEKEND AND NORTH FLOW WILL RETURN
ACROSS THE LAKE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST FOR MONDAY AND A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE LAKE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO OFFSHORE FLOW,
EVENTUALLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. MARINE HEADLINES ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GARUCKAS
NEAR TERM...10/GARUCKAS
SHORT TERM...SEFCOVIC
LONG TERM...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...10
MARINE...SEFCOVIC
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