666
FXUS61 KCLE 240526
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
126 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD THROUGH MID-WEEK AS A COLD
FRONT BEGINS TO SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA BEFORE LIFTING BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
930 PM UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
630 PM UPDATE...
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. JUST TWEAKED
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS WITH
CUMULUS DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
PERSISTS OVERHEAD. WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID
70S WILL PROVIDE LITTLE RELIEF TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW WILL RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE LOWER 70S. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM
TUESDAY AS PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES RISE BETWEEN 96 AND 102F
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STILL WARM ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER 70S.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO ERODE ON TUESDAY AS A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE CONFINED TO
NORTHWEST OHIO AND ALONG THE LAKESHORE GIVEN THE LOCATION OF
THE FRONT. SOME INSTABILITY, IN THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG OF
MLCAPE, AND WEAK BULK LAYER SHEAR (10-20 KNOTS) IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE STALLED FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS BEING THE
PRIMARY HAZARD. THE SWODY2 HIGHLIGHTS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) ON TUESDAY. SLOW MOVING
SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM WEAK FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH PWATS NEAR
TO ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED FLOODING
RISK, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY LEADING TO PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM WINDOW. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS UNDER PEAK HEATING. OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS
HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL RISK SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 1 OF 5) ON
WEDNESDAY AND MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 1 OF
4) ON BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WE'LL REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES IN
THE MID 90S EACH AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED STALLED FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MOST LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AS AN UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF
PRECIP AT KTOL/KFDY, WHICH HAVE VCTS BETWEEN ROUGHLY 20Z AND 2Z.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY CLIP KCLE THIS EVENING SO HAVE
MAINTAINED THE PROB30 FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THERE'S STILL QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS,
SO THE TIMEFRAME OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY BE NARROWED IN
SUBSEQUENT UPDATES AS HIGH RES GUIDANCE BECOMES A BIT MORE
ALIGNED. AS MENTIONED IN THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT AT OTHER TAF SITES, HOWEVER THE
OVERALL PROBABILITY IS STILL TOO LOW TO WARRANT THE ADDITION OF
SHOWERS/STORMS. ANY PRECIP COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES/NON-VFR VISIBILITIES AND POSSIBLY EVEN GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT
BEFORE BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AND INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS
LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
ARE POSSIBLE PRIMARILY AT KERI DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FROM ABOUT 00Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD.
OUTLOOK...DAILY ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD ALLOW FOR NON-VFR AT LOCAL TERMINALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH
SATURDAY AS MID/UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING GRADUALLY BECOMES SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD
INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. SW WINDS WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AT 5-15 KNOTS THROUGH TUESDAY, BUT WINDS
WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS ACROSS THE LAKE, WITH SPEEDS
DECREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BE MORE VARIABLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES QUASI-
STATIONARY NEAR THE LAKE, POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE CONSISTENTLY S
TO SW BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS AS
THE FRONT TRIES TO LIFT BACK NORTH.
CLIMATE
HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED RECORD VALUES ON TUESDAY.
HERE ARE DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE VALUES AT OUR SIX
CLIMATE SITES:
DATE TOLEDO MANSFIELD CLEVELAND AKRON YOUNGSTOWN ERIE
06-24 95(2005) 93(1933) 96(1952) 95(1923) 93(1952) 92(1952)
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ003-006>014-
017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...13
NEAR TERM...13/SEFCOVIC
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...15
MARINE...GARUCKAS
CLIMATE...
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page