919
FXUS61 KCLE 241831
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
231 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, BECOMING STATIONARY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE
AREA AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND BEFORE A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT SOME RELIEF IS ON THE WAY AS A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SETS UP
FOR THE LOCAL AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE AREA
THIS EVENING. SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED UPSTREAM AHEAD
OF THE FRONT IN NORTHERN IN AND SOUTHERN LOWER MI THIS
AFTERNOON IN AN AREA OF 2000 J/KG MLCAPE AND BETTER MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO SLOWLY WORK SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL OH THIS EVENING, WITH A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALREADY TRYING TO FORM IN PARTS OF THE AREA.
WEAK DEEP LAYER FLOW AND WARM/DRY MID LEVELS ARE FAIRLY
PROHIBITIVE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION, ALTHOUGH GENERALLY AGREE
WITH SPC/WPC DAY 1 MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER/EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL, WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS, MODEST THETA E
DIFFERENTIALS/DCAPE VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF A SMALL DAMAGING WIND
THREAT IN MORE ROBUST CONVECTION, AND DECENT RAINFALL RATES.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH DIURNALLY THROUGH
THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT, WITH MOST OF THE AREA REMAINING
DRY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL ONLY FALL TO
THE LOW/MID 70S OVERNIGHT. WITH THE BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA AND
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENING TO MORE ZONAL FLOW ON
WEDNESDAY, BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXIST ACROSS THE
AREA, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US-30. EXPECTING A BIT MORE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON WEDNESDAY WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF
2000-2500 J/KG, REFLECTED WITH LIKELY POPS. A BIT MORE
ORGANIZATION POSSIBLE TOO WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR,
ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENT STILL RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE FOR ORGANIZED
STRONG CONVECTION. THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL BE A BIT
HIGHER TOMORROW WITH SOME DECENT SIGNALS IN THE HREF QPF PROBS
OF 3" IN 3 HOURS, WITH SLOW MOVING/TRAINING CONVECTION POSSIBLE
WITH RATHER HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT
COOLER WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S NORTH TO
NEAR 90 SOUTH, AND HEAT INDICES GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
CONVECTION WILL DIURNALLY DIMINISH AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO HOLD SOUTH OF THE
AREA. THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY LINGERING OVER THE AREA WILL
ATTEMPT TO LIFT NORTH LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES, ALTHOUGH THE
BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE BACK NEAR THE AREA BY LATE FRIDAY BEHIND
THE LOW. FORECAST POPS RAMP UP TO LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS EACH DAY, THEN DIMINISHES TO CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE AFTER
SUNSET. PERHAPS SOME BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE PRESENT
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SINKING INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AND HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH, ALTHOUGH HEAT HEADLINES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SOME SIGNALS FOR A PATTERN CHANGE EXIST AT THE END OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD, BUT CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DIURNAL PRECIP
CHANCES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
QUASI ZONAL FLOW OVER THE AREA. SOME SIGNALS FOR LARGE SCALE
TROUGHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY WITH A STRONGER COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA, WHICH MAY RETURN TEMPS TO MORE
NORMAL VALUES BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK WITH A DRIER PATTERN AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH PRIMARILY VFR TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A DECENT AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN, AND IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR TAF IMPACTS WITH THIS AREA
OF CONVECTION WILL BE AT TOL AND HAVE INTRODUCED A BRIEF TEMPO
IFR WINDOW WITH A POTENTIAL GUSTY WIND SHIFT. ELSEWHERE, SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE HIT-OR-MISS AS MID-
LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE. THUS, ELIMINATED ALL PROB30
GROUPS, AND WENT WITH BRIEF VCTS MENTION AT REMAINING TAFS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXCEPTION IS AT ERI/YNG WHERE ALL
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN REMOVED DUE TO THE LAKE BREEZE
INLAND EXTENT AT ERI AND DRY AIR AT YNG.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM MENTION WILL BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT TAF
ISSUANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES TO ADDRESS THE NEXT ROUND
OF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTSIDE OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST LAKE BREEZE WINDS AT ERI, WINDS
WILL GENERALLY FAVOR A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, 5 TO 8 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES
(TOL/CLE/ERI) BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
MARINE
OUTSIDE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS, MARINE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUIET WITH OVERALL FLOW 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS TO IMPACT THE LAKE WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
AS WELL AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BRIEF LULL IN
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY, BEFORE SCATTERED TO PERHAPS
WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE LAKE.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ003-006>014-
017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...03
NEAR TERM...03
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM...03
AVIATION...KAHN
MARINE...KAHN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page