998
FXUS61 KCLE 250010
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
810 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2025
..00Z TAF AVIATION AND NEAR TERM FORECAST UPDATE
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, BECOMING STATIONARY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE
AREA AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND BEFORE A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
800 PM UPDATE...
WE LET THE HEAT ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 8 PM. OTHERWISE, THE REST OF
THE NEAR TERM FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AT
THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT SOME RELIEF IS ON THE WAY AS A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE LOCAL AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE
SOUTH INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED UPSTREAM AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN NORTHERN IN AND
SOUTHERN LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON IN AN AREA OF 2000 J/KG MLCAPE
AND BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO
SLOWLY WORK SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL OH THIS
EVENING, WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ALREADY TRYING TO FORM IN
PARTS OF THE AREA. WEAK DEEP LAYER FLOW AND WARM/DRY MID LEVELS
ARE FAIRLY PROHIBITIVE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION, ALTHOUGH
GENERALLY AGREE WITH SPC/WPC DAY 1 MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER/EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS, MODEST
THETA E DIFFERENTIALS/DCAPE VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF A SMALL
DAMAGING WIND THREAT IN MORE ROBUST CONVECTION, AND DECENT
RAINFALL RATES.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH DIURNALLY THROUGH
THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT, WITH MOST OF THE AREA REMAINING
DRY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL ONLY FALL TO
THE LOW/MID 70S OVERNIGHT. WITH THE BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA AND
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENING TO MORE ZONAL FLOW ON
WEDNESDAY, BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXIST ACROSS THE
AREA, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US-30. EXPECTING A BIT MORE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON WEDNESDAY WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF
2000-2500 J/KG, REFLECTED WITH LIKELY POPS. A BIT MORE
ORGANIZATION POSSIBLE TOO WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR,
ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENT STILL RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE FOR ORGANIZED
STRONG CONVECTION. THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL BE A BIT
HIGHER TOMORROW WITH SOME DECENT SIGNALS IN THE HREF QPF PROBS
OF 3" IN 3 HOURS, WITH SLOW MOVING/TRAINING CONVECTION POSSIBLE
WITH RATHER HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT
COOLER WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S NORTH TO
NEAR 90 SOUTH, AND HEAT INDICES GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
CONVECTION WILL DIURNALLY DIMINISH AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO HOLD SOUTH OF THE
AREA. THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY LINGERING OVER THE AREA WILL
ATTEMPT TO LIFT NORTH LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES, ALTHOUGH THE
BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE BACK NEAR THE AREA BY LATE FRIDAY BEHIND
THE LOW. FORECAST POPS RAMP UP TO LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS EACH DAY, THEN DIMINISHES TO CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE AFTER
SUNSET. PERHAPS SOME BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE PRESENT
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SINKING INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AND HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH, ALTHOUGH HEAT HEADLINES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SOME SIGNALS FOR A PATTERN CHANGE EXIST AT THE END OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD, BUT CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DIURNAL PRECIP
CHANCES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
QUASI ZONAL FLOW OVER THE AREA. SOME SIGNALS FOR LARGE SCALE
TROUGHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY WITH A STRONGER COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA, WHICH MAY RETURN TEMPS TO MORE
NORMAL VALUES BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK WITH A DRIER PATTERN AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE MAIN AVIATION WEATHER MESSAGE FOR THIS 00Z EVENING TAF
UPDATE WILL BE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE WITH ANY
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THAT COULD
MOVE OVER AND IMPACT AN AIRFIELD. WE HAVE SOME CONVECTION ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING BUT THIS SHOULD MOSTLY DISSIPATE SOON
AFTER SUNSET. THERE IS A BRIEF MENTION FOR VCTS OR -TSRA AT CAK
THROUGH 02Z THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE, THE EVENING CONVECTION
SHOULD END THIS EVENING AND NOT IMPACT ANY OTHER TAF SITE.
THERE IS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION THAT WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY.
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN DURING THE
MAX DAYTIME HEATING. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING AND SPECIFIC
IMPACTS ANY GIVEN TAF SITE FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON'S CONVECTION,
WE HAVE LEFT IT AS VCTS BETWEEN 16Z AND 21Z FOR ALL LOCATIONS.
FUTURE TAF UPDATES MAY BE ABLE TO NAIL DOWN SOME BETTER TIMING
AND DIRECT IMPACTS IF ANY. SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY BRIEFLY
BRING SOME FLIGHT CATEGORY IMPACTS. BUT THE GENERAL RULE OF
THUMB WILL BE VFR CEILINGS AND CONDITIONS FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA AND THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY
AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT BECOMING NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS ON
WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
MARINE
OUTSIDE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS, MARINE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUIET WITH OVERALL FLOW 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS TO IMPACT THE LAKE WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
AS WELL AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BRIEF LULL IN
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY, BEFORE SCATTERED TO PERHAPS
WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE LAKE.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...03
NEAR TERM...03/77
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM...03
AVIATION...77
MARINE...KAHN
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