242
FXUS61 KCLE 250742
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
342 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA TODAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAVERING TO THE NORTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN OHIO TODAY
BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE, ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED ALOFT AS AN UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO FLATTEN OUT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING TODAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHER PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE THAN YESTERDAY.
PWAT VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.8 INCHES
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT
LOCALIZED PWATS CLOSE TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR VALUES WILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL AT AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL KEEP CONVECTION SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED. THE
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN ADDITION TO AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF
AT LEAST 2000-2500 J/KG WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST AN ISOLATED
THREAT FOR WET DOWNBURSTS IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY ON THURSDAY (DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT
OF THE BEST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY). THE
BEST INSTABILITY WILL MOST LIKELY BE LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF
U.S. ROUTE 30 TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE SOME MID-
LEVEL DRY AIR WHICH COULD HELP MIX GUSTS DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
STEERING FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK AND PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SO SLOW-MOVING/TRAINING STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES ARE POSSIBLE AREAWIDE. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE,
BEST CHANCE IN LOW- LYING/URBAN AREA AND LOCATIONS THAT
EXPERIENCE REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
ALTHOUGH THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS ENDED, HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. HIGHS WILL LIKELY
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OHIO ZONES TODAY WITH A
FEW SPOTS WEST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR POSSIBLY REACHING 90
DEGREES. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS NW PA
AND FAR NE OH TODAY. ANTICIPATE LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND
90 DEGREES THURSDAY. HEAT INDICES MAY BE AS WARM AS THE MID TO
UPPER 90S ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN OHIO DURING THE AFTERNOON
TODAY/THURSDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THE HIGHER CLOUD
COVER AND INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. ANY
PRECIPITATION BEFORE OR DURING PEAK HEATING WILL RESULT IN
COOLER TEMPS AND LOWER HEAT INDICES.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
UPPER TROUGH AXIS TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
WARM SECTOR DAY FRIDAY HAS TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR 90F. COLD
FRONT FROM THIS SYSTEM ON THE DOORSTEP OF THE WESTERN ZONES LATE
FRIDAY, PUSHING SLOWLY THROUGH THE CWA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
WILL BE FIGHTING OVERALL COLUMN DRYNESS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT,
AND THEN BETTER CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH THE COLD
FRONT ITSELF. WITH ALL THE DRY AIR, THERE WILL BE A WIND THREAT,
AND AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES, MID LEVEL FLOWS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE AS WELL. MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE FROM SPC FOR DAY
3 LINES UP HERE, AND THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TRACKS IN FROM THE
WEST, LIKELY DEVELOPING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT
AND PREVENTING COMPLETE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE CWA.
AS A RESULT, THE CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. WILL HAVE TO SEE
HOW MESOSCALE FACTORS START TO PLAY OUT AS WELL WITH CONVECTIVE
CLOUD DEBRIS, OLD OUTFLOWS ETC.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE LONG TERM WILL FEATURE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSING
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES, SO WILL BE EXPECTING THE UNSETTLED PATTERN
BRINGING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY TO CONTINUE WITH A
COLD FRONT EXPECTED AROUND MONDAY. BY THE TIME THE END OF THE LONG
TERM ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK, A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HAVE
SETTLED IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. NO WHOLESALE CHANGES TO THE
AIRMASS AS DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S FOR THE MOST PART
WITH AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
CAN'T RULE OUT A PASSING SHOWER AT KCAK/KYNG FOR THE FIRST
COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD, BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND MUCH OF WEDNESDAY
MORNING. GENERALLY EXPECT VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/STORMS OVER
THE NEXT 18 HOURS, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG IN
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SETTLE OVER NORTHERN OHIO TODAY, RESULTING IN YET ANOTHER ROUND
OF DIURNALLY-INFLUENCED SHOWERS/STORMS FROM ABOUT 16Z THROUGH
22-23Z. SHEAR WILL BE QUITE WEAK SO STORMS MAY NOT BE SUPER
ORGANIZED; AS A RESULT, CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT/COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION IS QUITE LOW. MAINTAINED VCTS AT MOST TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WITH A PROB30 AT KERI. ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS THAT MOVE DIRECTLY OVER TERMINALS COULD
POTENTIALLY PRODUCE NON-VFR VISIBILITIES AND GUSTY, ERRATIC
WINDS. AMENDMENTS/UPDATES ARE LIKELY AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES AND
STORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE FROM ROUGHLY KCLE TO KCAK WESTWARD
THROUGH AS LATE AS 02-03Z THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY OF PATCHY
FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS A BIT HIGHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO HAVE
INTRODUCED NON-VFR CONDITIONS AT KCAK/KYNG LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL RETURN NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
MARINE
WINDS UNDER 10KTS, BUT OVERALL VARIABLE IN DIRECTION FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
SHOULD SEE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15KTS FRIDAY , AND THEN
MORE WESTERLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WAVE
HEIGHTS 2FT OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...15
NEAR TERM...15
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...15
MARINE...26
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