406
FXUS61 KCLE 251743
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
143 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA TODAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAVERING TO THE NORTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK TODAY WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES SOUTH INTO
THE AREA. AT 10 AM, THE BOUNDARY IS LOCATED FROM NEAR TOLEDO,
EXTENDING EAST JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKESHORE TOWARDS YOUNGSTOWN.
WE ARE WAITING FOR INSTABILITY TO BUILD THIS MORNING BUT
EXPECTING TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO
DEVELOP BETWEEN NOON AND 1 PM AND INCREASING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY FROM NW OHIO TOWARDS MANSFIELD AND CANTON. ONCE
THUNDERSTORMS GET GOING, OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
NEW DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. ALTHOUGH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE IN NE OHIO/NW PENNSYLVANIA, THE
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOWER SO WILL MAINTAIN JUST CHANCE
POPS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER
NORTHERN OHIO TODAY BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED ALOFT AS AN
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO FLATTEN OUT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TODAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHER
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THAN YESTERDAY.
PWAT VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.8 INCHES
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT
LOCALIZED PWATS CLOSE TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR VALUES WILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL AT AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL KEEP CONVECTION SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED. THE
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN ADDITION TO AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF
AT LEAST 2000-2500 J/KG WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST AN ISOLATED
THREAT FOR WET DOWNBURSTS IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY ON THURSDAY (DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT
OF THE BEST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY). THE
BEST INSTABILITY WILL MOST LIKELY BE LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF
U.S. ROUTE 30 TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE SOME MID-
LEVEL DRY AIR WHICH COULD HELP MIX GUSTS DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
STEERING FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK AND PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SO SLOW-MOVING/TRAINING STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES ARE POSSIBLE AREAWIDE. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE,
BEST CHANCE IN LOW- LYING/URBAN AREA AND LOCATIONS THAT
EXPERIENCE REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
ALTHOUGH THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS ENDED, HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. HIGHS WILL LIKELY
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OHIO ZONES TODAY WITH A
FEW SPOTS WEST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR POSSIBLY REACHING 90
DEGREES. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS NW PA
AND FAR NE OH TODAY. ANTICIPATE LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND
90 DEGREES THURSDAY. HEAT INDICES MAY BE AS WARM AS THE MID TO
UPPER 90S ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN OHIO DURING THE AFTERNOON
TODAY/THURSDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THE HIGHER CLOUD
COVER AND INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. ANY
PRECIPITATION BEFORE OR DURING PEAK HEATING WILL RESULT IN
COOLER TEMPS AND LOWER HEAT INDICES.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
UPPER TROUGH AXIS TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
WARM SECTOR DAY FRIDAY HAS TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR 90F. COLD
FRONT FROM THIS SYSTEM ON THE DOORSTEP OF THE WESTERN ZONES LATE
FRIDAY, PUSHING SLOWLY THROUGH THE CWA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
WILL BE FIGHTING OVERALL COLUMN DRYNESS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT,
AND THEN BETTER CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH THE COLD
FRONT ITSELF. WITH ALL THE DRY AIR, THERE WILL BE A WIND THREAT,
AND AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES, MID LEVEL FLOWS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE AS WELL. MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE FROM SPC FOR DAY
3 LINES UP HERE, AND THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TRACKS IN FROM THE
WEST, LIKELY DEVELOPING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT
AND PREVENTING COMPLETE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE CWA.
AS A RESULT, THE CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. WILL HAVE TO SEE
HOW MESOSCALE FACTORS START TO PLAY OUT AS WELL WITH CONVECTIVE
CLOUD DEBRIS, OLD OUTFLOWS ETC.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE LONG TERM WILL FEATURE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSING
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES, SO WILL BE EXPECTING THE UNSETTLED PATTERN
BRINGING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY TO CONTINUE WITH A
COLD FRONT EXPECTED AROUND MONDAY. BY THE TIME THE END OF THE LONG
TERM ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK, A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HAVE
SETTLED IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. NO WHOLESALE CHANGES TO THE
AIRMASS AS DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S FOR THE MOST PART
WITH AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRAPED OVER NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL OHIO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND AS A RESULT DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS HAVE BEGAN TO POP UP FROM KFDY EAST
TO KYNG AND POINTS SOUTH. THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE TOO
ORGANIZED AND SHOULD STAY ON THE WEAKER SIDE WHILE STAYING
GENERALLY STATIONARY. OPTED FOR A TEMPO GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR
NON-VFR THUNDERSTORM CONDITIONS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE
TERMINALS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KCLE AND KERI AS THEY SHOULD BE
FAR ENOUGH NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO MOVE OVER
TERMINALS, THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR ERRATIC GUSTS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITES FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SHOULD END AROUND SUNSET OR SHORTLY AFTER AROUND
21Z-23Z. OVERNIGHT, THERE WILL BE CHANCE FOR NON-VFR VISIBILITY
AS PATCHY AREAS OF BR DEVELOP LASTING INTO THE MORNING HOURS
FROM 04Z-13Z. THIS WILL MAINLY BE CONCENTRATED IN THE AREAS THAT
SAW PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWER TOMORROW AFTERNOON
THAT COULD BRING NON-VFR CONDITIONS TO THE MAJORITY OF
TERMINALS.
WINDS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING THEN START TO SHIFT TO
BE PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
MARINE
WINDS UNDER 10KTS, BUT OVERALL VARIABLE IN DIRECTION FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
SHOULD SEE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15KTS FRIDAY , AND THEN
MORE WESTERLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WAVE
HEIGHTS 2FT OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...15
NEAR TERM...10/15
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...23
MARINE...26
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