621
FXUS61 KCLE 252022
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
422 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, PULLING THIS BOUNDARY
BACK SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER
CENTRAL OHIO OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHING
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FILLED IN THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF ROUTE 30 WHERE THE BOUNDARY RESIDES AND ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS SURFACE
BOUNDARY EXTENDS NORTHWEST TO TOLEDO WHILE NORTHERLY FLOW DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ERIE IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY LITTLE WITH CUMULUS IN
THE LAKE SHADOW FARTHER EAST. HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO TO NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO FILL IN WESTWARDS TOWARDS FINDLAY AND BOWLING
GREEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WITH FREEZING LEVELS
AROUND 13.5KFT AND RAINFALL RATES OF 2-4" PER HOUR. OBSERVED
RAINFALL LOOKS TO RANGE FROM 0.5-1.25 INCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF MORROW
AND KNOX COUNTIES. A LOCALIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REMAINS ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL OHIO GIVEN ML CAPE VALUES OVER 2000
J/KG AND DCAPE AROUND 900 J/KG AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WITH
LIMITED FLOW, THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS MAINLY IN THE FORM OF WET
MICROBURSTS. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR FOR ANY TRAINING OR BACK
BUILDING THAT COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. EXPECTING A
CONSIDERABLE DOWNTREND TO CONVECTION AFTER SUNSET WITH FEW IF ANY
STORMS LEFT BY MIDNIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY MORNING
AND EXPECTING TO SEE THE STALLED BOUNDARY OVERHEAD START TO LIFT
BACK NORTH. CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY MORNING
IN NW OHIO OR TOWARDS LAKE ERIE, OR POSSIBLY IN THE EASTERN FRINGES
OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE BETTER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE
PRESENT. ALTHOUGH FORCING WILL BE WEAK AGAIN, THE EXPECTATION IS FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EXPAND DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH ML CAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG DEVELOPING
AGAIN. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE BETTER COVERAGE ACROSS NW
OHIO AND INLAND AREAS EXTENDING EASTWARD. THE NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY, WEAK
SHEAR, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM UPPER
80S IN PA TO NEAR 90 IN NW OHIO WITH HEAT INDEX BACK INTO THE UPPER
90S IN NW OHIO. IT IS POSSIBLE A PORTION OF THE AREA MAY NEED AT
HEAT ADVISORY BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY GIVEN THIS AREA WILL ALSO SEE THE
GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
REMAIN WARM WITH SEVERAL AREAS NOT DROPPING BELOW 70 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
WE START THE DAY ON FRIDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THE HEAT
CONTINUES WITH MOST OF THE AREA EXPERIENCING HEAT INDEX VALUES IN
THE UPPER 90S AGAIN. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH
INTO THE AREA AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THERE IS A BIT MORE
SHEAR BUT ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF STORMS ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY INTO THE OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NEAR
2 INCHES ALONG THAT FRONT AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
BOUNDARY SETTLES SOUTH TO CENTRAL OHIO ON SATURDAY AND THE
HIGHER POPS SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH TIME. NORTHERN AREAS START TO
SEE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DRIER DAY OF THE WEEKEND AS THE
BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH. WILL HOLD ONTO SOME LOW CHANCE POPS WITH UNCERTAINTY IN
THE PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY BUT THESE WILL LIKELY TREND
DOWNWARD. WARM FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A
STRONGER FRONT FINALLY PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE
MONDAY. WE FINALLY HAVE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH PUSH THROUGH
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, USHERING IN HIGH PRESSURE FOR LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES FINALLY DROP OFF BEHIND
THIS FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 60S.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRAPED OVER NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL OHIO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND AS A RESULT DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS HAVE BEGAN TO POP UP FROM KFDY EAST
TO KYNG AND POINTS SOUTH. THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE TOO
ORGANIZED AND SHOULD STAY ON THE WEAKER SIDE WHILE STAYING
GENERALLY STATIONARY. OPTED FOR A TEMPO GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR
NON-VFR THUNDERSTORM CONDITIONS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE
TERMINALS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KCLE AND KERI AS THEY SHOULD BE
FAR ENOUGH NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO MOVE OVER
TERMINALS, THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR ERRATIC GUSTS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITES FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SHOULD END AROUND SUNSET OR SHORTLY AFTER AROUND
21Z-23Z. OVERNIGHT, THERE WILL BE CHANCE FOR NON-VFR VISIBILITY
AS PATCHY AREAS OF BR DEVELOP LASTING INTO THE MORNING HOURS
FROM 04Z-13Z. THIS WILL MAINLY BE CONCENTRATED IN THE AREAS THAT
SAW PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWER TOMORROW AFTERNOON
THAT COULD BRING NON-VFR CONDITIONS TO THE MAJORITY OF
TERMINALS.
WINDS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING THEN START TO SHIFT TO
BE PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
MARINE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE, UNDER 10 KTS, AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SLOWLY TO SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. FRIDAY, A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND WINDS WILL BECOME MORE PREDOMINATELY SOUTH AND
EASTERLY AROUND 5-10 KTS. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS LAKE ERIE THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10-15 KTS. WAVES WILL BE
GENERALLY 2 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...10
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...23
MARINE...23
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