825
FXUS61 KCLE 260554
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
154 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, PULLING THIS BOUNDARY
BACK SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER
CENTRAL OHIO OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHING
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
930 PM UPDATE...
WE ADDED PATCHY FOG WORDING IN THE ZONE FORECAST FOR MOST OF
NEOH AND NWPA. AREAS THAT HAD RAINFALL TODAY WILL HAVE BETTER
POTENTIAL OF HAVING SOME PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING.
745 PM UPDATE...
WITH THIS EVENING NEAR TERM FORECAST UPDATE, WE FRESHENED UP THE
THE HOURLY POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. BASICALLY KEPT SLIGHT
POPS, 20 PERCENT OR LESS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT WITH THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OUT OVER THE REGION. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST THROUGH TOMORROW LOOKS GOOD WITH NO OTHER ADJUSTMENTS
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FILLED IN THIS AFTERNOON
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF ROUTE 30 WHERE THE BOUNDARY RESIDES
AND ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS NORTHWEST TO TOLEDO WHILE
NORTHERLY FLOW DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY LITTLE WITH CUMULUS IN THE LAKE SHADOW FARTHER EAST.
HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM NORTH CENTRAL OHIO TO NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO FILL IN WESTWARDS TOWARDS FINDLAY AND BOWLING GREEN OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON AND ARE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WITH FREEZING LEVELS
AROUND 13.5KFT AND RAINFALL RATES OF 2-4" PER HOUR. OBSERVED
RAINFALL LOOKS TO RANGE FROM 0.5-1.25 INCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF
MORROW AND KNOX COUNTIES. A LOCALIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
REMAINS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL OHIO GIVEN ML CAPE
VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG AND DCAPE AROUND 900 J/KG AND STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WITH LIMITED FLOW, THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
IS MAINLY IN THE FORM OF WET MICROBURSTS. WILL ALSO NEED TO
MONITOR FOR ANY TRAINING OR BACK BUILDING THAT COULD RESULT IN
LOCALIZED FLOODING. EXPECTING A CONSIDERABLE DOWNTREND TO
CONVECTION AFTER SUNSET WITH FEW IF ANY STORMS LEFT BY MIDNIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY MORNING
AND EXPECTING TO SEE THE STALLED BOUNDARY OVERHEAD START TO LIFT
BACK NORTH. CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY MORNING
IN NW OHIO OR TOWARDS LAKE ERIE, OR POSSIBLY IN THE EASTERN FRINGES
OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE BETTER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE
PRESENT. ALTHOUGH FORCING WILL BE WEAK AGAIN, THE EXPECTATION IS FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EXPAND DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH ML CAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG DEVELOPING
AGAIN. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE BETTER COVERAGE ACROSS NW
OHIO AND INLAND AREAS EXTENDING EASTWARD. THE NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY, WEAK
SHEAR, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM UPPER
80S IN PA TO NEAR 90 IN NW OHIO WITH HEAT INDEX BACK INTO THE UPPER
90S IN NW OHIO. IT IS POSSIBLE A PORTION OF THE AREA MAY NEED AT
HEAT ADVISORY BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY GIVEN THIS AREA WILL ALSO SEE THE
GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
REMAIN WARM WITH SEVERAL AREAS NOT DROPPING BELOW 70 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
WE START THE DAY ON FRIDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THE HEAT
CONTINUES WITH MOST OF THE AREA EXPERIENCING HEAT INDEX VALUES IN
THE UPPER 90S AGAIN. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH
INTO THE AREA AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THERE IS A BIT MORE
SHEAR BUT ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF STORMS ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY INTO THE OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NEAR
2 INCHES ALONG THAT FRONT AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
BOUNDARY SETTLES SOUTH TO CENTRAL OHIO ON SATURDAY AND THE
HIGHER POPS SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH TIME. NORTHERN AREAS START TO
SEE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DRIER DAY OF THE WEEKEND AS THE
BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH. WILL HOLD ONTO SOME LOW CHANCE POPS WITH UNCERTAINTY IN
THE PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY BUT THESE WILL LIKELY TREND
DOWNWARD. WARM FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A
STRONGER FRONT FINALLY PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE
MONDAY. WE FINALLY HAVE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH PUSH THROUGH
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, USHERING IN HIGH PRESSURE FOR LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES FINALLY DROP OFF BEHIND
THIS FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 60S.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
GENERALLY EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG MAY PRODUCE NON-VFR VISIBILITIES AT
INLAND TERMINALS AND ALONG THE LAKESHORE IN NE OH/NW PA LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING, BEST CHANCE AT KERI/KYNG.
SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SCATTERED DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. GENERALLY THINK THAT TIMING WILL BE
BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z, BUT CONVECTION MAY BE POORLY ORGANIZED AND
THERE'S STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE AND
PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION. NONETHELESS, ALL OHIO TAF SITES HAVE
AT LEAST A PROB30 FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR A PERIOD
THIS AFTERNOON WITH VCTS WHERE CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT
WESTERN TERMINALS. SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF KTOL
THROUGH LATE EVENING. WILL LIKELY NEED TO MAKE AMENDMENTS TO THE
TAFS AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN EITHER DIRECTION THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS THAT MOVE DIRECTLY OVER TERMINALS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING VARIABLE AND GUSTY WINDS AND NON-VFR VISIBILITIES.
VFR IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF PRECIP.
NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AND UNDER 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHEST THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON FRIDAY, SATURDAY, AND MONDAY.
MARINE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE, UNDER 10 KTS, AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SLOWLY TO SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. FRIDAY, A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND WINDS WILL BECOME MORE PREDOMINATELY SOUTH AND
EASTERLY AROUND 5-10 KTS. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS LAKE ERIE THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10-15 KTS. WAVES WILL BE
GENERALLY 2 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...10
NEAR TERM...10/77
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...15
MARINE...23
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