336
FXUS61 KCLE 260811
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
411 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO LIFT NORTH OVER NORTHERN OHIO AND
LAKE ERIE AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
TODAY. THIS LOW WILL EXTEND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
WARM, HUMID, AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN OHIO EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL ATTEMPT TO LIFT NORTH OVER LAKE ERIE THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED DIURNALLY-INFLUENCED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE. LIKE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION WITH PWAT VALUES
EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES AND MLCAPE VALUES TO AROUND 2000-2500 J/KG
(WITH LOCALLY HIGHER MLCAPE VALUES POSSIBLE ACROSS NW OH)
EXPECTED DURING PEAK DIURNAL INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. MID-
LEVEL DRY AIR AND DCAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS AROUND 700 J/KG WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER RISK OF DAMAGING GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH WET
DOWNBURSTS TODAY, AS OUTLINED IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND
WEAK STEERING FLOW PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD LEAD
TO SLOW-MOVING/TRAINING PRECIP WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE. LOCALIZED FLOODING CAN'T BE RULED OUT PRIMARILY IN
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN. THERE'S
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE COVERAGE/PLACEMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SINCE SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL AND POPS
WILL LIKELY BE REFINED IN FUTURE UPDATES.
POPS TAPER OFF WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING TONIGHT BUT
THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF PERIODIC SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT. POPS ONCE AGAIN RISE
BY LATE AFTERNOON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. SHEAR MAY BE A BIT MORE OPTIMAL IN
WESTERN ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON, HOWEVER THE BEST FORCING/POPS
PROBABLY WON'T ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER PEAK DIURNAL INSTABILITY
FRIDAY EVENING.
THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN NW PA/NE OH AND UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S ACROSS NW OH ANTICIPATED EACH DAY. MAXIMUM HEAT
INDICES AT INLAND LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE 90S, ALTHOUGH A FEW
SPOTS WEST OF I-71 MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH 100 DEGREES. ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS AHEAD OF OR DURING PEAK HEATING WOULD RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES/HEAT INDICES. TONIGHT'S LOWS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL PERIOD AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AND HEAT DOME OVER THE REGION WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST AS THE
PATTERN BREAKS DOWN AND A TROUGH WILL ENTER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL BEAR THE
BRUNT OF THIS TRANSITIONAL PHASE, AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA, WHICH WILL OFFER ELEVATED STORM CHANCES ON FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. STORM CHANCES MAY BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE AREA WILL BE IN THE MINIMUM OF THE DIURNAL
CYCLE. HOWEVER, THE FRONT WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST, AS STORMS WILL BE
BACK ON THE UPTREND UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS ON SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ENTER BEHIND THE FRONT AND ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT UNLESS THE INCOMING TROUGH
SPEEDS UP, WHICH IS TRENDING LESS LIKELY. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS WITH CONVECTION IN THE REGION AND
HIGHS WILL AVERAGE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE
BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO TREND WARMER.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY APPEARS UNSETTLED AT THIS TIME WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A COLD FRONT SWINGING
THROUGH THE REGION, SUPPORTING MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS. COVERAGE
APPEARS PRETTY GOOD ON MONDAY AND HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA;
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR SEVERE STORM CHANCES ON MONDAY, GIVEN THE
AMPLE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION AND GOOD SYNOPTIC ENERGY WITH
THE TROUGH. THERE COULD BE SOME RESIDUAL STORMS ON TUESDAY,
DEPENDING ON THE FINAL UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT TIMING.
OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST WILL TREND QUIET FOR THE START OF JULY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK TOWARD
NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
GENERALLY EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG MAY PRODUCE NON-VFR VISIBILITIES AT
INLAND TERMINALS AND ALONG THE LAKESHORE IN NE OH/NW PA LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING, BEST CHANCE AT KERI/KYNG.
SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SCATTERED DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. GENERALLY THINK THAT TIMING WILL BE
BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z, BUT CONVECTION MAY BE POORLY ORGANIZED AND
THERE'S STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE AND
PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION. NONETHELESS, ALL OHIO TAF SITES HAVE
AT LEAST A PROB30 FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR A PERIOD
THIS AFTERNOON WITH VCTS WHERE CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT
WESTERN TERMINALS. SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF KTOL
THROUGH LATE EVENING. WILL LIKELY NEED TO MAKE AMENDMENTS TO THE
TAFS AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN EITHER DIRECTION THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS THAT MOVE DIRECTLY OVER TERMINALS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING VARIABLE AND GUSTY WINDS AND NON-VFR VISIBILITIES.
VFR IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF PRECIP.
NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AND UNDER 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHEST THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON FRIDAY, SATURDAY, AND MONDAY.
MARINE
TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE
FLOW BEING FAVORED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY WITH A LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPING AND FLOW FLIPPING MORE ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. A SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION FOR FRIDAY WILL ALLOW
FOR ELEVATED OFFSHORE FLOW ON FRIDAY, STARTING FROM THE SOUTHEAST
AND SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST ON SATURDAY WITH A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME 2 TO 3 FT WAVES COULD DEVELOP WITH THE
WESTERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY, BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY BELOW THE NEED
FOR ANY HEADLINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY, ALLOWING FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW FAVORED AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY AND WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT ON
TUESDAY. WAVES COULD AGAIN GET ELEVATED TO 2 TO 3 FT ON TUESDAY WITH
THE WESTERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY, BUT STILL NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT ANY
MARINE HEADLINE NEEDS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...15
NEAR TERM...15
SHORT TERM...SEFCOVIC
LONG TERM...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...15
MARINE...SEFCOVIC
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