810
FXUS61 KCLE 261742
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
142 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO LIFT NORTH OVER NORTHERN OHIO AND
LAKE ERIE AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
TODAY. THIS LOW WILL EXTEND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT LOOKS LIKE ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP FIRST
ALONG THE CONVERGENT BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. LATE THIS AFTERNOON A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE WILL REACH NORTHWEST OHIO WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPANDING IN COVERAGE, ESPECIALLY AFTER 4 PM.
A CONCERN REMAINS FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GIVEN THE
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORM THIS
AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WARM, HUMID, AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
NORTHERN OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL ATTEMPT TO LIFT NORTH OVER
LAKE ERIE THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED DIURNALLY-INFLUENCED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE. LIKE THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS, A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION WITH
PWAT VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES AND MLCAPE VALUES TO AROUND
2000-2500 J/KG (WITH LOCALLY HIGHER MLCAPE VALUES POSSIBLE
ACROSS NW OH) EXPECTED DURING PEAK DIURNAL INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON. MID- LEVEL DRY AIR AND DCAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS AROUND
700 J/KG WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER RISK OF DAMAGING GUSTS
ASSOCIATED WITH WET DOWNBURSTS TODAY, AS OUTLINED IN A MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AND WEAK STEERING FLOW PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
COULD LEAD TO SLOW-MOVING/TRAINING PRECIP WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE. LOCALIZED FLOODING CAN'T BE RULED OUT
PRIMARILY IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAIN. THERE'S STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE COVERAGE/PLACEMENT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SINCE SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT
MARGINAL AND POPS WILL LIKELY BE REFINED IN FUTURE UPDATES.
POPS TAPER OFF WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING TONIGHT BUT
THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF PERIODIC SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT. POPS ONCE AGAIN RISE
BY LATE AFTERNOON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. SHEAR MAY BE A BIT MORE OPTIMAL IN
WESTERN ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON, HOWEVER THE BEST FORCING/POPS
PROBABLY WON'T ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER PEAK DIURNAL INSTABILITY
FRIDAY EVENING.
THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN NW PA/NE OH AND UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S ACROSS NW OH ANTICIPATED EACH DAY. MAXIMUM HEAT
INDICES AT INLAND LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE 90S, ALTHOUGH A FEW
SPOTS WEST OF I-71 MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH 100 DEGREES. ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS AHEAD OF OR DURING PEAK HEATING WOULD RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES/HEAT INDICES. TONIGHT'S LOWS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL PERIOD AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AND HEAT DOME OVER THE REGION WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST AS THE
PATTERN BREAKS DOWN AND A TROUGH WILL ENTER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL BEAR THE
BRUNT OF THIS TRANSITIONAL PHASE, AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA, WHICH WILL OFFER ELEVATED STORM CHANCES ON FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. STORM CHANCES MAY BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE AREA WILL BE IN THE MINIMUM OF THE DIURNAL
CYCLE. HOWEVER, THE FRONT WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST, AS STORMS WILL BE
BACK ON THE UPTREND UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS ON SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ENTER BEHIND THE FRONT AND ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT UNLESS THE INCOMING TROUGH
SPEEDS UP, WHICH IS TRENDING LESS LIKELY. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS WITH CONVECTION IN THE REGION AND
HIGHS WILL AVERAGE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE
BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO TREND WARMER.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY APPEARS UNSETTLED AT THIS TIME WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A COLD FRONT SWINGING
THROUGH THE REGION, SUPPORTING MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS. COVERAGE
APPEARS PRETTY GOOD ON MONDAY AND HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA;
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR SEVERE STORM CHANCES ON MONDAY, GIVEN THE
AMPLE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION AND GOOD SYNOPTIC ENERGY WITH
THE TROUGH. THERE COULD BE SOME RESIDUAL STORMS ON TUESDAY,
DEPENDING ON THE FINAL UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT TIMING.
OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST WILL TREND QUIET FOR THE START OF JULY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK TOWARD
NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SIMILAR PATTERN AS THE PAST FEW DAYS CONTINUE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
FROM 18Z TO 00Z. LOCATION WILL GENERALLY BE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT IS DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO WITH HIGHER
CONFIDENCE NEAR KTOL, KCLE, AND KYNG GIVEN CURRENT PLACEMENT AND
PROGRESSION OF THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KCAK, KMFD, AND KFDY SO OPTED TO CONTINUE
WITH THE PROB30 GROUP AND VCTS AND NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AT KERI. WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS, NON-VFR VISIBILITY CAN
BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH GUSTY DOWNDRAFTS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
GENERALLY MOVING IN EASTERLY DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON,
THOUGH WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
OUTSIDE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS, STAYING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OUT OF
A NORTHERLY DIRECTION.
TOWARDS THE END OF AND AFTER THE TAF PERIOD, A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MOVING EAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
10 KNOTS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS FROM 15-20 KNOTS, MAINLY FOR
THE WESTERN TERMINALS. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR KCLE, BUT OPTED TO OMIT IT DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SUNDAY BEING THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. NON-VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO START NEXT WEEK THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
MARINE
TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE
FLOW BEING FAVORED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY WITH A LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPING AND FLOW FLIPPING MORE ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. A SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION FOR FRIDAY WILL ALLOW
FOR ELEVATED OFFSHORE FLOW ON FRIDAY, STARTING FROM THE SOUTHEAST
AND SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST ON SATURDAY WITH A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME 2 TO 3 FT WAVES COULD DEVELOP WITH THE
WESTERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY, BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY BELOW THE NEED
FOR ANY HEADLINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY, ALLOWING FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW FAVORED AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY AND WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT ON
TUESDAY. WAVES COULD AGAIN GET ELEVATED TO 2 TO 3 FT ON TUESDAY WITH
THE WESTERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY, BUT STILL NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT ANY
MARINE HEADLINE NEEDS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...15
NEAR TERM...10/15
SHORT TERM...SEFCOVIC
LONG TERM...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...15
MARINE...23
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page