516  
FXUS61 KCLE 262355  
AFDCLE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH  
755 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2025  
   
..00Z TAF AVIATION AND NEAR TERM FORECAST UPDATE  
 
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE  
TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS LOW WILL EXTEND A  
COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.  
THE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT  
BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION MONDAY EVENING.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/  
 
730 PM UPDATE...  
THE ONLY ADJUSTMENTS THAT WERE MADE TO THIS EVENING'S FORECAST  
UPDATE WAS WITH THE POPS FOR THE REST OF OVERNIGHT. WE TAPERED  
OFF THE POPS A LITTLE QUICKER THIS EVENING AND KEPT IN SLIGHT  
CHANCE AROUND 20 PERCENT OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE LATE THIS  
AFTERNOON. ML CAPE VALUES ARE IN THE 1500-2500 J/KG RANGE AND  
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO FILL IN, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW  
AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO. FORTUNATELY THERE IS LITTLE SHEAR TO WORK  
WITH TODAY BUT DCAPE REMAINS AT OR ABOVE 900 J/KG. IN ADDITIONS  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN WITH RATES OF 2-4" PER HOUR.  
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE IF STORMS START TO  
TRAIN OVER A PARTICULAR AREA AND OVERWHELM DRAINAGE SYSTEM. ACTIVITY  
THIS EVENING IS BEING FORCED BY SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING  
AROUND THE RIDGE ALONG WITH A MINIMAL INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL  
MOISTURE. ALSO FROM COLLIDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ACTIVITY IS  
EXPECTED TO WANE AFTER SUNSET.  
 
LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THIS EVENING WILL TRACK  
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. DURING THE EARLY  
PART OF THE DAY, DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS NE OHIO/NW  
PENNSYLVANIA AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD AND EXPECT ACTIVITY  
TO FIRE IN THIS REGION FIRST. IN ADDITION, THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED  
WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NW OHIO  
AFTER 6 PM, THEN GRADUALLY SAG SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE THROUGH  
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FAR EASTERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA  
ARE HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WHICH SEEMS  
APPROPRIATE GIVEN CONTINUED MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES OF 2000+  
J/KG. SHEER WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE DAYS  
BUT MID-LEVELS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE MOIST, SO MICROBURSTS MAY BE A  
LITTLE HARDER TO COME BY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY  
AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON FRIDAY, INCLUDING THE  
POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRAINING OF STORMS ALONG THE FRONT. PRECIPITABLE  
WATER VALUES WILL BE NEAR 2 INCHES AND STORM MOTION IS LIKELY TO BE  
BE PARALLEL TO THE FRONT WHICH COULD SUPPORT TRAINING. BEFORE THE  
ACTIVITY FILLS IN ON FRIDAY, HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED  
ONCE AGAIN. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S ACROSS MUCH  
OF NORTHERN OHIO AND COULD POSSIBLY HIT 100 BEFORE THE STORMS  
ARRIVE, ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE ERIE WHERE DEWPOINTS MAY BE A DEGREE OR  
TWO HIGHER. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A HEAT ADVISORY COULD  
BE ISSUED BUT WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON  
WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO HOLD OFF ON THAT.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/  
 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND  
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SETTLES SOUTHWARD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL  
OHIO. THIS MOIST AXIS WILL BEGIN IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES  
ON SATURDAY MORNING WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY EITHER ONGOING OR  
DEVELOPING WITH SOME HEATING. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE  
FRONT, WE MAY HAVE SOME MINIMAL INSTABILITY IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN  
COUNTIES TO ENHANCE SHOWERS AND SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.  
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN THE SOUTH  
UNTIL THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS OUT OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES  
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 80-85 RANGE BUT  
UNFORTUNATELY WE DO NOT REALLY SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 SATURDAY. HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON SUNDAY AND WE DO  
FINALLY MIX THE DEWPOINTS DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES INTO THE MID AND  
UPPER 60S. SUNDAY DOES LOOK TO BE DRY WITH A STRONG CAPPING  
INVERSION NEAR 850MB. REMOVED ANY LINGERING POPS FROM THE  
FORECAST EXCEPT FOR JUST AN ISOLATED MENTION FROM ABOUT MARION  
TO MOUNT VERNON. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RESUME ON SUNDAY AND  
TEMPERATURES AND TEMPERATURES WILL ALREADY START TO RECOVER  
WITH HIGHS BACK UP AROUND 90 ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/  
 
THE RIDGE SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST TO START THE LONG TERM WITH A  
MORE PRONOUNCED TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA. A WARM FRONT  
LIFTS BACK NORTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WITH SHOWER  
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FILLING IN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT SEEMS UNLIKELY ACTIVITY LINGERS INTO  
TUESDAY BUT HAVE A LOW POP IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES FOR TUESDAY.  
THIS FRONT FINALLY USHERS IN A BETTER AIRMASS WITH HUMIDITY DROPPING  
OFF FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLE  
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/  
 
THE GENERAL MESSAGE FOR AVIATION WEATHER WITH THIS TAF UPDATE  
IS VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AROUND ANY SCATTERED CONVECTION  
THAT REDEVELOPS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH BRIEF VISIBILITY  
AND LOWER CEILINGS. WE HAVE THAT POTENTIAL AVIATION IMPACT  
MENTIONED IN A PROB30 FROM 16Z TO 22Z FRIDAY AT ALL AREA  
LOCATIONS. THERE ALSO MAY BE SOME LIGHT FOG THAT COULD DEVELOP  
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE WITH 4SM TO 5SM REDUCTION POSSIBLY.  
THAT POTENTIAL MVFR LIGHT FOG EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IS  
HIGHLIGHTED IN A TEMPO AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES. OTHERWISE, WE  
ARE EXPECTING PASSING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM TIME TO  
TIME DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OUTSIDE OF ANY POP-UP CONVECTION.  
THERE WILL BE A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL START TO MOVE INTO  
NWOH BY THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE  
LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AROUND 5 KNOTS. SOUTH TO  
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 5 TO 12 KNOTS WILL RESUME ON FRIDAY WITH  
SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.  
 
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING  
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SUNDAY BEING  
THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. NON-VFR CONDITIONS  
EXPECTED TO START NEXT WEEK THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AN APPROACHING  
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
WINDS CONTINUE IN A SIMILAR PATTERN AS PREVIOUS DAYS, A GENERALLY  
LIGHT, NORTHERLY WINDS AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON  
INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY OVERNIGHT  
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE  
WEST AND WINDS WILL VEER TO BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 10 KNOTS AND THEN  
SHIFT TO BE SOUTHWESTERLY AT 10-15 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY  
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE. WAVES WILL STAY 2 FEET OR  
LESS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND BUILD TO 3 FEET AFTER THE COLD FRONT  
PASSES ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY  
AND WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5 KNOTS ACROSS THE LAKE WITH WAVES LESS  
THAN 2 FEET. AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WINDS WILL BE  
PREDOMINATELY OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 10 KNOTS THEN VEER TO BE  
WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT BY TUESDAY WITH WAVES BUILDING BACK  
UP TO 2-3 FEET.  
 
 
   
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
OH...NONE.  
PA...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...10  
NEAR TERM...10/77  
SHORT TERM...10  
LONG TERM...10  
AVIATION...77  
MARINE...23  
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