424
FXUS61 KCLE 270541
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
141 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS LOW WILL EXTEND A
COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
THE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION MONDAY EVENING.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
915 PM UPDATE...
NO ADDITIONAL FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
730 PM UPDATE...
THE ONLY ADJUSTMENTS THAT WERE MADE TO THIS EVENING'S FORECAST
UPDATE WAS WITH THE POPS FOR THE REST OF OVERNIGHT. WE TAPERED
OFF THE POPS A LITTLE QUICKER THIS EVENING AND KEPT IN SLIGHT
CHANCE AROUND 20 PERCENT OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ML CAPE VALUES ARE IN THE 1500-2500 J/KG RANGE AND
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO FILL IN, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW
AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO. FORTUNATELY THERE IS LITTLE SHEAR TO WORK
WITH TODAY BUT DCAPE REMAINS AT OR ABOVE 900 J/KG. IN ADDITIONS
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN WITH RATES OF 2-4" PER HOUR.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE IF STORMS START TO
TRAIN OVER A PARTICULAR AREA AND OVERWHELM DRAINAGE SYSTEM. ACTIVITY
THIS EVENING IS BEING FORCED BY SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
AROUND THE RIDGE ALONG WITH A MINIMAL INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE. ALSO FROM COLLIDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO WANE AFTER SUNSET.
LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THIS EVENING WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. DURING THE EARLY
PART OF THE DAY, DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS NE OHIO/NW
PENNSYLVANIA AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD AND EXPECT ACTIVITY
TO FIRE IN THIS REGION FIRST. IN ADDITION, THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NW OHIO
AFTER 6 PM, THEN GRADUALLY SAG SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FAR EASTERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
ARE HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WHICH SEEMS
APPROPRIATE GIVEN CONTINUED MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES OF 2000+
J/KG. SHEER WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE DAYS
BUT MID-LEVELS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE MOIST, SO MICROBURSTS MAY BE A
LITTLE HARDER TO COME BY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON FRIDAY, INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRAINING OF STORMS ALONG THE FRONT. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE NEAR 2 INCHES AND STORM MOTION IS LIKELY TO BE
BE PARALLEL TO THE FRONT WHICH COULD SUPPORT TRAINING. BEFORE THE
ACTIVITY FILLS IN ON FRIDAY, HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTHERN OHIO AND COULD POSSIBLY HIT 100 BEFORE THE STORMS
ARRIVE, ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE ERIE WHERE DEWPOINTS MAY BE A DEGREE OR
TWO HIGHER. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A HEAT ADVISORY COULD
BE ISSUED BUT WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON
WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO HOLD OFF ON THAT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SETTLES SOUTHWARD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
OHIO. THIS MOIST AXIS WILL BEGIN IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
ON SATURDAY MORNING WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY EITHER ONGOING OR
DEVELOPING WITH SOME HEATING. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT, WE MAY HAVE SOME MINIMAL INSTABILITY IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES TO ENHANCE SHOWERS AND SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN THE SOUTH
UNTIL THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS OUT OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 80-85 RANGE BUT
UNFORTUNATELY WE DO NOT REALLY SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON SUNDAY AND WE DO
FINALLY MIX THE DEWPOINTS DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S. SUNDAY DOES LOOK TO BE DRY WITH A STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION NEAR 850MB. REMOVED ANY LINGERING POPS FROM THE
FORECAST EXCEPT FOR JUST AN ISOLATED MENTION FROM ABOUT MARION
TO MOUNT VERNON. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RESUME ON SUNDAY AND
TEMPERATURES AND TEMPERATURES WILL ALREADY START TO RECOVER
WITH HIGHS BACK UP AROUND 90 ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE RIDGE SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST TO START THE LONG TERM WITH A
MORE PRONOUNCED TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA. A WARM FRONT
LIFTS BACK NORTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WITH SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FILLING IN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT SEEMS UNLIKELY ACTIVITY LINGERS INTO
TUESDAY BUT HAVE A LOW POP IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES FOR TUESDAY.
THIS FRONT FINALLY USHERS IN A BETTER AIRMASS WITH HUMIDITY DROPPING
OFF FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLE
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH PRECIPITATION
OUT OF THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR A VFR START TO THE TERMINALS THIS
MORNING. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS MORNING COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME FOG TO DEVELOP, BUT FOG WILL BE VERY TIED TO WHERE HOLES IN
THE CLOUDS APPEAR LATER THIS MORNING. THIS IS MOST LIKELY GOING
TO BE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OHIO, ESPECIALLY KYNG, KCAK,
AND KMFD. CANNOT RULE IT OUT AT KTOL AND KFDY EVEN WITH THE
CLOUDS AND HAVE A LOWER CONFIDENCE TEMPO FOR THOSE TERMINALS.
KCLE SHOULD AVOID ANY VISIBILITY DROPS WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND LOWER CLOUDS AT KERI SHOULD MITIGATE LOWER VISIBILITY LATER
THIS MORNING.
LIKE THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, THERE WILL BE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, AS HOT TEMPERATURES AND AMPLE MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY FOR KMFD TO KCLE AND
EAST. HAVE WINDOWS TO HIGHLIGHT IFR TS IMPACTS TO THE NORTHEAST
OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NORTHWEST
OHIO, THERE COULD BE A BIT OF A CAP TO ALLOW FOR TS DEVELOPMENT
TO BE LATER IN THE DAY WITH A COLD FRONT AND WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES AND HAVE THE IFR TS WINDOW LATER IN THE EVENING.
THE REMNANTS OF THESE STORMS COULD PUSH TO KCLE AND KERI LATER
IN THE NIGHT AS DECAYING SHOWERS WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS OTHER CAN
RAIN IN THE AREA.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTHERLY, SHIFTING
TO THE SOUTHWEST. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE, WINDS
COULD BECOME WESTERLY INTO NORTHWEST OHIO. FOR KERI, WINDS WILL
BUCK THE TREND A BIT WITH NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE LAKE TO START
BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN MORNING FOG ON SUNDAY.
ADDITIONAL NON-VFR POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.
MARINE
WINDS CONTINUE IN A SIMILAR PATTERN AS PREVIOUS DAYS, A GENERALLY
LIGHT, NORTHERLY WINDS AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST AND WINDS WILL VEER TO BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 10 KNOTS AND THEN
SHIFT TO BE SOUTHWESTERLY AT 10-15 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE. WAVES WILL STAY 2 FEET OR
LESS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND BUILD TO 3 FEET AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY
AND WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5 KNOTS ACROSS THE LAKE WITH WAVES LESS
THAN 2 FEET. AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WINDS WILL BE
PREDOMINATELY OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 10 KNOTS THEN VEER TO BE
WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT BY TUESDAY WITH WAVES BUILDING BACK
UP TO 2-3 FEET.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...10
NEAR TERM...10/77
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...23
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